AIC UPDATE - October 2005 | Vol. 2 | No. 33
IRAN & BRITAIN

Iran-UK Relations: From Puzzling to Mysterious

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IRAN & US
Shuttle Diplomacy
and the
Trap Set for Iran
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in this issue
  • Iran-UK Relations: From Puzzling to Mysterious
  • Shuttle Diplomacy and the Trap Set for Iran

  • Iran-UK Relations: From Puzzling to Mysterious

    In recent weeks, Iran-UK relations have been experiencing volatility not experienced for a long time. Even before Britain joined France, Germany and the US against Iran on nuclear issue, certain Iranian hard line groups and media, had began accusing the British Government of fomenting destabilizing activities in Tehran and elsewhere. Such accusations came as a surprise to many Iran analysts in the country who had suspected a hidden strategic relationship between the hard line clerical establishment and Britain. The suspicion extends back decades, when Britain was the dominant foreign power in Iran. What the analyst may be missing is the fact that the ant-British propaganda emanates largely from the Hojjatiyeh Islamic faction, which now controls the executive branch.

    Following the resolution of the International Atomic Agency against Iran, hard-line student and pressure groups led by known figures of the Hojjetiyeh faction demonstrated in the front of the British Embassy in Tehran, burning flags and breaking gates and walls. The police forces, controlled by the hardliners, fought the hard line demonstrators who wanted to take over the Embassy and hold its personnel hostage. Britain retaliated by accusing Iran of fomenting instability in Iraq and charging that Tehran was behind the murder of several British soldiers in southern Iraq. Iran denied the accusation in strongest possible terms and asserted that Britain’s allegation is intended to cover up for its illegal invasion of the sovereign Iraqi nation and its murderous “terrorist cleansing policy.”

    Only days later, two bombs exploded in a major shopping center in Ahvaz, the capital city of the southwestern Iranian oil-rich province of Khuzestan. The bomb blasts killed at least 6 people and injured some 100 others. According to the state-run radio, more that 20 suspects have been detained for the bombings. Their identities have not yet been made public. These bombings were the third in a series of bombings in the southwestern part of Iran since last June. For the previous bombings, Tehran had accused Arab nationalists and separatists, and shot down the Aljazeera television bureau in Tehran, after it was accused by the Iranian Government to have fomented the Arab separatist feelings.

    Iran’s Interior Minister, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, said... Read More

    For further readings please consult the following news items:

    Iran 'has proof' of British role in bombings
    http://w ww.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp? NewsCode=36871&NewsKind=CurrentAffairs

    Iran's hardline press calls for cutting UK ties
    http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleVie w/Default.asp? ArchiveNews=Yes&NewsCode=36820&NewsKind=Curre ntAffairs

    Iran detains more than 20 over Ahvaz bombings
    http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleVie w/Default.asp? ArchiveNews=Yes&NewsCode=36843&NewsKind=Curre ntAffairs

    Iran: UK behind Ahvaz blasts
    http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/e xeres/DC0A32FD-D20C-4ECC-A53A- B45E2EEB7F85.htm

    Judiciary chief says traces of foreign hands seen in Ahvaz bombings
    http://www.mehrnews.ir/en/NewsD etail.aspx?NewsID=242564

    Angry Iranian mourners blame Britain for bombings
    http://today.reuters.co .uk/news/newsArticle.aspx? type=worldNews&storyID=2005-10- 17T123312Z_01_DIT745089_RTRUKOC_0_UK-IRAN- BRITAIN.xml&archived=False

    Analysis: Iran-UK ties toward freezing?
    http://www.upi.com/InternationalIntelligence/ view.php?StoryID=20051017-042031- 2861r


    Shuttle Diplomacy and the Trap Set for Iran

    The US-Iran nuclear standoff has entered a new phase as both sides try to diplomatically outmaneuver the other side. Foreign Ministers of both nations are traveling to powerful countries explaining their positions and asking for support. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recently traveled to Moscow while Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki went to Beijing. Rice returned disappointed that Russians were not ready as yet to report Iran to the UN. Mottaki was not able to get the commitment from Chinese to vote with Iran the next time. The Board of Directors of the International Atomic Agency will meet on Iran’s nuclear matter on 24th of November to decide if Iran should be reported to the UN.

    As the last issue of the AIC Update indicated, Americans are following a long-term strategy that will lead Iran to isolate itself now that it has been trapped by the IAEA resolution, which sets tough conditions for Iran to meet in a short time. It is very possible that Americans will not push for reporting Iran to the UN this November, in case they find Moscow and Beijing uneasy with the idea. Instead, Americans will probably gently back off giving Iran more time to further isolate itself as it fails to meet the IAEA’s conditions. Meanwhile, the US will be trying to win over the support of Russia and China after they have been convinced that Iran is not ready to make concessions on the key demand that it permanently terminate its nuclear fuel cycle technology.

    American long-term strategy appears to have another leg to it as well: to give the world the impression of an American Iran policy that is soft and pro-engagement. However, any proposal for engagement will be limited to matters directly serving the interests of the Bush Administration without helping break any part of the thick ice of US-Iran relations. As a sign of this public policy ploy, and in a strangely conciliatory tone, Secretary Rice said at the Hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee this week that Dr. Zalmay Khalilzad, American Ambassador to Iraq, now has the “flexibility” to establish contacts with the Iranian envoys to discuss Iraqi insurgency and matters related to Iraq’s stability. He will still be forbidden to talk to the Iranians on matters of direct concern to Tehran.

    Iran too is engaged in a soft diplomacy after... Read More

    For further readings please consult the following news items:

    Rice Is Rebuffed By Russia On Iran
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp- dyn/content/article/2005/10/15/AR2005101501381_pf .html

    Iran's Nuclear Ambitions Focus of Rice's Meetings in Moscow
    http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/display .html?p=washfile- english&y=2005&m=October&x=20051016175005521el ootom0.9570734&t=livefeeds/wf-latest.html

    Rice fails to persuade Russia to move on Iran nuclear program
    http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/ 2005-10-15-rice-russia_x.htm

    Iran: Russia, U.S. Disagree Over Tehran's Nuclear Program
    http://www.rferl.org/featuresart icle/2005/10/051AA214-6F35-46E8-8059- B3A70BDF2DB7.html

    Rice seeks UK support over Iran
    http://www.turkishweekly.net/news.php? id=20808

    Iranian FM Mottaki to visit China Thursday
    http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleVie w/Default.asp?NewsCode=36569&NewsKind=Current% 20Affairs


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