The Implications of Climate Change in Iran
/By Research Associate Lauren Elmore
Climate change is already affecting Iran on a multitude of levels and will only continue to grow more serious over the years. This is a wide-ranging and expansive problem, which is unlikely to be resolved without global action.
Iran’s environmental issues are increasingly causing economic difficulty, severe health consequences, and widespread societal strife. Though the Iranian government has recognized climate change to be a problem, mitigation efforts have been minimal, in part due to the country’s poor economic situation.
Internationally, climate change is broadly recognized; however, combatting it is a half-hearted gesture. Few countries have made significant contributions to the reduction of their greenhouse gas emissions, including Iran. However, some issues like water scarcity are becoming increasingly pressing and may ultimately refocus regional alliances and cooperation in the Middle East.
Background
Global Climate Trends
The earth’s climate is constantly changing. Throughout its history, the earth has gone through multiple climate cycles, both with ice ages and periods of extreme heat. These cycles lead to dramatic changes in global composition, and have caused the extinction of a multitude of species, resulted in mass population migrations, and have altered the general landscape of the globe. However, the recent cycle of climate change, a warming cycle, is showing trends of heating far above the natural cycle of the earth and at an accelerated rate as compared to previous cycles. Temperatures are expected to rise by 5 ºC by the end of the century given its current rate. Scientists estimate that current warming trends are most likely the result of human activity (>95% probability).
The primary driver of this current cycle is greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These gases, typically carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases, enter into the atmosphere and generate the “greenhouse effect”. This, in broad terms, is where the aforementioned gases trap the sun’s heat inside of the earth’s atmosphere and prevent it from reentering space. This has caused the earth to warm, and this phenomenon has coined the term “global warming”. Since pre-industrial periods (1850-1900), carbon dioxide levels have increased by 400%, and there has been a 48% increase in greenhouse gas concentrations within the atmosphere. These increases in concentrations are cited to be the result of the burning of coal, oil, and gas (produces carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide); deforestation (decreasing the reabsorption of carbon dioxide); an increase in livestock farming (releases methane); the usage of fertilizers and pesticides (releases nitrous oxide); and the operation of equipment and products that utilize fluorinated gases.
To date, 2011-2020 is considered to be the warmest decade. Within the decade, 2016, 2019, and 2020 are denoted as the top three warmest years. The average temperature was 1.2 ºC (2.16 ºF) above pre-industrial levels. This number may seem inconsequential to most. However, dire effects are already coming to light. First and foremost, it must be noted that this increase in temperature is a global average and does not accurately represent increases in individual regions. Arctic temperatures were 17.78 ºC (50 ºF) above normal in 2018. Over the past three decades, 95% of the Arctic’s older ice has melted, resulting in dramatic changes for the ecosystems that rely on these lands, and has even resulted in a global sea-level rise.
Consequences are not unique to the Arctic. Global ramifications of this warming have both already been observed in moderation and are expected to grow in severity if not combatted. These contain, but are not limited to, continually rising temperatures, frost-free seasons, lengthening of growing seasons, precipitation pattern changes (i.e., an increase in droughts, more severe floods), an increase in the frequency of heatwaves, a growing severity of hurricanes, an expected rise in sea level of one to eight feet by 2100, and a completely ice-free Arctic. At first glance, these do not seem to be of extreme consequence; however, this would likely pose mass changes to the ecosystem, the geographical composition of continents, and the availability of food on a global scale. This is also only considering a 5 ºC increase in temperature. At 7 ºC, some parts of the world will become unlivable; at 12 ºC, over half the globe will be inhospitable.
Iranian Climate Trends and Contribution
Iran, like the majority of countries, has been subject to the increasingly severe impacts of a changing climate. Record temperature highs within Iran have been reported nearly yearly, with the national high of 53.0 ºC (127.4 ºF) in 2016 being surpassed by almost one degree Celsius in 2017, being recorded as 53.7 ºC (128.7 ºC). It is predicted that Iran will see a further increase of 2.6 ºC (4.68 ºF) of mean temperatures and a 35% decrease in precipitation within the coming decades. Furthermore, estimation models and recent trends indicate a significant decrease in annual precipitation but an increase in the concentration of precipitation. Though seemingly oxymoronic, these trends paint a destructive future: an increase in drought periods coupled with extreme flood events.
Pre-pandemic (2019) Iran was the highest contributing Middle Eastern country to GHG emissions and was the world’s eighth-largest emitter, with emissions at a staggering 616,741 million tons of carbon dioxide per year. Iran’s emissions did decrease during the pandemic, as demand and consumption for many of the primary contributors to greenhouse gases decreased. However, these emissions are expected to increase once again as 2021 progresses, and previous GHG emission trends in Iran suggest a constant annual increase of yearly emissions. These large emissions are primarily a result of Iran’s reliance on oil and natural gas as a basis for its economy, but Iran’s increasingly rapid move to urbanization has also played a significant role in generating mass air pollution and heat islands, or urbanized areas with higher temperatures than areas surrounding it.
Climate Consequences on Iran
The warming climate has already had a significant effect on Iran’s environment. Iran is in the midst of a water crisis. Though not a new issue by any means, the severity of the shortage of water is becoming increasingly more prominent across the Middle East and within Iran. In the early 2000s, approximately 35% of Iranians suffered from water shortages. This has only increased. In 2019, Iran ranked fourth in the world for countries at the highest risk for depleting their water supplies. This, in part, is due to the fact that about 90% of Iran’s water is used for agricultural purposes, with total groundwater depletion at approximately 74 km3 due to overdrafts from 77% of regions in Iran. This mismanagement has led to mass migration towards urban areas of Iran as rural water sources are continually depleted. However, mass population movements towards urban areas have placed additional strain on cities in Iran. Without aid or proper management, these issues are not expected to improve. In fact, with recent precipitation trends, this crisis will likely become more exacerbated, and Isa Kalantari, Iran’s head of the Department of Environment, has asserted that by 2050, 70% of Iranians will be forced to leave Iran due to a lack of water resources.
Coupled with this, multiple lakes within Iran, previously a source of water, are either significantly smaller than before or completely dried up. Lake Bakhtegan in Southern Iran, what was once Iran’s second-largest lake, has now dried up. While it was used for irrigation for farming, its loss posed more issues than an increased strain on water sources. The lake was a salt lake. This means, when it dried, the salt from its waters spread across the land, causing many rural areas to become inhospitable. Pastureland was destroyed, forcing many Iranians to move to urban areas. Though this is the most prominent example, it is not an isolated one. Lake Urmia in Northern Iran is now only about 10% of what it was in 1970. Along with this, Hamoon Lake, what was once the seventh-largest wetland, is now disappearing due to both the effects of climate change and dam interference.
On the flipside, floods have been a growing issue within Iran. Iran has been hit by a multitude of floods, some severe enough to result in the displacement of thousands of people and the deaths of many others. In May of 2021, floods hit 14 provinces and killed ten people. These floods damaged villages, livestock, and water supplies. More floods hit that month, impacting the southern and central provinces of Iran, killing 21 and injuring 22 Iranians. In a more severe case from March to April of 2019, flash flooding affected approximately 90% of Iran. Over half a million people were displaced. Hundreds of millions of dollars of damage was done to infrastructure around Iran during this time. After the disaster, Zahra Falahat, the Iranian Red Crescent’s Under-Secretary-General for International Affairs and International Humanitarian Law, stated that “entire villages [were] washed away in a matter of minutes, countless homes and buildings [were] damaged and completely destroyed”.
Water is not the only issue Iran is facing as a result of climate change; it is also faced with extreme deforestation. Forest fires within Iran have been increasing due to human activities (95%). However, as the climate continues to warm and grow drier, this lengthens wildfire seasons worldwide. News reports indicate that there has been a 100% increase in damages as a result of fires across Iran. Consequently, Iran loses about 12,000 hectares of forest annually from fires, forest degradation, and illegal logging. Given its current deforestation rate, Iran stands to completely lose all of its forests within 75 to 100 years. This loss of forests could have major repercussions for the future of mitigating climate change: forests are important regulators of the global climate (removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, recharging groundwater, and recycling precipitation). Though there are some reforestation efforts conducted in Iran, this replanting of trees does not contain the same amount of biodiversity as the original forests in the area did. Not only is biodiversity the backbone to the health and wellness of forests, but many traditional Iranian herbal medicines come directly from their abundant forests. Faced with continual forest degradation, this loss could pose great risks to food and medicinal security across Iran.
Another longer-term issue for Iran is rising sea levels. The Southern coast of Iran borders the Indian Ocean, more specifically, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The Northern coast of Iran borders the Caspian Sea. Should sea levels rise by 1.2 meters, this would flood Anzali, a low-lying city in the Southwest corner of the Caspian. By 2050, it is estimated that over 300 million homes will be affected by the rising coastlines, and over 100 million people will be displaced.
Government Response
Iran has recognized climate change as a serious threat to human life. The Iranian government has opted to engage in some internal aid and mitigation efforts, providing short-term remedies to climate change issues. However, long-term mitigation efforts are lacking and deemed to be economically infeasible given the current state of Iran’s economy. With sanctions, oil market price fluctuations, and the pandemic, Iran’s economy does not allow for the large compositional changes that are a requirement of complete climate change action policies. Though it is likely that Iran will continue to attempt to alleviate some internal climate issues, international mitigation efforts are very unlikely at this time.
Recognition
The Iranian government states that it views climate change as a serious threat. One of the first notable instances of this recognition was Iran’s establishment of the Department of Environment in 1971. The National Climate Change Office (NCCO) was later added to this department. The NCCO is responsible for providing reports related to the emission rate of Iran along with other national climate data. A Green Party was also established in Iran. This party, while now primarily geared towards advocating for more progressive policies, was and is a large promoter of the increase in the cleanliness of the environment and supports the uses of renewable energy sources, along with championing a decrease of overall pollution levels within Iran. However, the Green Party has not gained significant political traction within Iran.
On an international scale, Iran is a party to many environmental treaties. Of those signed, Iran has ratified the Desertification treaty, the Endangered Species treaty, the Hazardous Waste treaty, the Marine Dumping treaty, the Ozone protection treaty, and the Wastelands treaty. These treaties are aimed at preserving the environmental integrity of both the land, water, and atmosphere on a global scale. Iran has also ratified the majority of the Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty geared towards reducing GHG emissions. However, despite its initial ratification, Iran has yet to sign the Doha amendment, which was an extension of the original treaty, adding on a second decade of reduced GHG emissions.
However, signing these treaties seems to be the extent of Iran’s current climate crisis action on an international scale. Even where treaties have been signed, as in the case of the Paris Agreement, Iran remains one of the seven countries that has not ratified it. Ratification legally ensures compliance with the accords. This lack of legal binding, in part, is due to Iran’s economy. The Iranian government has stated that it will only combat climate change on a holistic, global scale if they first receive international aid. Its projections for decreasing carbon emissions were only deemed plausible with a healthy, growing economy. Unfortunately, this has not been the case within Iran for years. In light of the recent pandemic, Iran is especially unmotivated to attain or be bound to goals within the Paris agreement as it would come at the cost of Iran’s own national stability. Other environmental clauses of note that Iran has signed, but not ratified, are the Environmental Modification treaty, the Law of the Sea Treaty, and the Marine Life conservation treaty.
Mitigation Efforts
While on a global scale, Iran has not played a significant role in combating climate change, Iran, for the past couple of decades, has placed considerable internal focus on mitigating issues present within its environment. Water management has been a major source of concern. The Middle East and North Africa are the two most water-scarce regions in the world (6.3% of the world’s population; 1.4% of the world’s freshwater). However, a major issue within the Middle East, and primarily Iran, is the management of this water. Though previous government handling has been poor, steps have been taken to circumvent this. In 2019, Iran cracked down on illegal water wells and water pumping as this continual depletion of water from the soil had caused severe damage to the terrain, resulting in cracks and fissures forming around Tehran. Along with this, former President Rouhani launched a revitalization project in 2013 to restore Lake Urmia. This has succeeded somewhat, and since the start of the project, the lake’s surface has grown by over 1500 km2.
Along with these efforts, large-scale desalination projects are commencing. This essentially is the process of removing salts and other minerals from a water source and converting it to freshwater. Former President Rouhani, in 2020, announced that Iran would begin the first phase of the Persian Gulf desalination project. This will provide more fresh water for drinking and agricultural purposes. While it may appear as an end-all solution, desalination projects pose their own threat to the environment, which must be considered. These projects can cause environmental issues such as changes in the sea life population, pollution to waters, and an increase in GHG emissions.
Less than 10% of Iran is forested, making deforestation and wildfires a serious threat to the landscape. Reforestation is prominent within Iran’s history, starting out as an economic endeavor but soon turning into a necessity. Environmental activists around Iran have pledged to plant one billion trees by 2024, and government agencies have also conducted reforestation efforts along with developing tree nurseries for specific tree species. The Iranian government has also made an attempt to decrease deforestation in general. In 2017, Iran began to crack down on illegal logging within their forests and even banned logging for ten years within the Caspian Hyrician forests. As fires have become increasingly severe, Iran has also put in place some prevention policies. About 30% of the 95% of fires caused by human activities are considered to be intentional. Iran’s policies are both preventatively geared and punishment-oriented. In Iran, those found guilty of intentionally starting a wildfire will face three to five years in prison. Iran’s preventative measures include placing more public signs regarding wildfires and providing more information regarding the nature of these fires to the public. Additionally, fire sensors have been installed in forests for better control over wildfires.
Pollution, another major source of contention, especially within urban areas, has been confronted and worked on aggressively. Though not caused by climate change itself, pollution is the direct result of GHG emissions. In response to the growing levels of pollution, with a PM2.5 concentration three times that of WHO exposure recommendations and some cities having an Air Quality Index (AQI) as high as 300 (levels greater than 100 are considered to be unhealthy), Iran has implemented multiple counter-measures. For example, the quality of gasoline in Iran has increased in order to prevent excessive pollution when burning. Along with this, in many cities, officials have increased their enforcement of motor vehicle inspections, and in 2017, Iran adopted the Clean Air Law. This law is used to reduce unnecessary travel across sections of Tehran and also imposes harsher fines on individuals and incorporations that do not follow pollution limits. Additionally, Iran has developed a more extensive public transportation system to reduce some pollution. Despite these mitigation efforts, pollution still remains an extreme problem within large cities in Iran.
Iran’s economy, like many others in the region, is largely based on oil and natural gas, two nonrenewable energy sources, along with two major contributors of GHG emissions. Renewable energy sources can be an apt replacement for these, especially in light of sanctions. Despite this, less than one percent of Iran’s energy comes from renewable energy sources. Iran’s environment, however, allows for significant renewable energy contributions. For example, its overall land area (1.6 million km2) and climate grant a large amount of potential for solar energy that could potentially provide up to 300 days of energy for the entire country on solely solar energy. Recently, though, the Iranian government has been increasing its usage of renewable energy sources and aims to increase renewable energy production by 5,000 MegaWatts by 2025.
Despite these efforts of the past couple of decades, the environment has not been a policy priority. For example, state parks that were once protected on account of the environment are now being subsumed by development. Additionally, renewable energy sources have not been of focus and remain a small percentage of Iran’s energy production. However, the COVID-19 pandemic, though a global tragedy, has provided some reprieve to the damaged environment globally on account of worldwide low energy demand, and subsequently, fewer GHG emissions.
Public Economic Aid
Climate change in Iran has severely impacted many Iranians’ livelihoods. Because of this, the Iranian government has stepped in to provide some aid.
Farmers are one particular focus of climate aid within Iran. Droughts have heavily impacted farmers’ livelihoods. The Ministry of Agriculture has provided some funds to compensate for damages done to impacted farms. Iran’s government has also started a subsidy program, increasing the prices of oil and fuel. The profit made from this is later used for welfare for those in poverty.
Aid also comes in the form of job opportunities. Tehran has begun developing job positions that are geared towards preventing climate change using the Carbon Sequestration Project (CSP). This project is aimed at reducing global warming and has projects focused on environmental conservation and restoration across multiple Iranian provinces. This initiative has created over 500 permanent job opportunities and provided employment opportunities to 8,000 men and women.
Despite some steps taken, oftentimes, proper compensation is not provided to those affected, and people must flee their local areas. Aid within Iran is also dependent on the current president. Iran’s former president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, provided a significantly larger amount of aid to farmers within Iran and viewed climate change to be a significant risk. Though climate change was still recognized by former President Rouhani, aid has decreased for those affected by it. At the time of this writing, President Raisi has not provided a stance on environmental issues within Iran. However, he has been invited to attend the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference. As of the date of this publication, his attendance is yet to be confirmed.
Economic Implications
Climate change has undoubtedly damaged Iran’s economy. This damage is primarily centered around the agricultural sector, which has decreased Iran’s economic diversification, and subsequently, the overall stability of Iran’s economy. If Iran continues to pursue renewable energy sources and decreases its energy dependence on oil and natural gas, this would likely lessen the hold of sanctions imposed on its economy and other potential global interventions. However, if measures are not taken to combat climate change and Iran continues on its current trajectory, there will likely be a continued slow progression of economic downturn as climate change consequences continue to worsen.
Broad Economic Consequences
The agricultural sector is perhaps one of the most impacted economic sectors in Iran by climate change. This damage is the result of multiple issues due to climate change but is primarily centered around water scarcity and floods. Iran’s Department of Environment’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) estimates that “due to the changing trends of climate change and hydrological parameters, agricultural production and economy has faced significant damages amounting to 3.7 billion USD (based on fixed prices) annually from 2015 to 2030 compared to 2010”. The Iranian government is attempting to tackle this issue. New farming techniques, specifically updated irrigation techniques and alterations in cropping patterns, are now used to stave off complete agricultural collapse in Iran. Regardless of these techniques, the agriculture sector is continuing to falter, and Iran could stand to lose 70% of its farmland within the coming decades.
Despite the negative effects of climate change on Iran’s economy, mitigation measures allow for diversification opportunities. There is a significant opportunity for the development of Iranian wind power and geothermal energy. And, as mentioned before, Iran has the ability to develop a large amount of solar energy. Currently, Iran only gets around 0.1% of its power from non-hydro renewable resources. Iran has made a commitment to increase this to 5% and to add an additional 2.5 GigaWatts of renewable power by 2030. This transition to renewable energies is not only beneficial to the stability of the overall Iranian economy but has also established new job positions across Iran in the manufacturing, installation, and maintenance of renewable energy plants. Sanctions make this transition difficult, however, and are the reasoning behind some of the lack of progress.
Along with this, Iran is branching into nuclear energy. Nuclear energy is a no-emission source of energy and can significantly reduce the amount of carbon dioxide produced. Iran constructed a nuclear power plant, Bushehr 1, and is planning to complete its second plant by 2026. The first plant provided 1 GW of energy, and the second is anticipated to have a greater capacity for energy. Similar to renewable energy sources, an incremental increase in the usage of nuclear energy will provide more employment opportunities, both in the construction and the operation usage of it. Additionally, nuclear energy is considered to be an extremely cost-effective source of energy as compared to other renewable energy sources. Though it is not nearly as inexpensive as nonrenewable sources, it provides a greater long-term energy forecast.
Individual Economic Consequences
On a personal level, climate change has negatively impacted the livelihoods and incomes of many Iranians. In rural areas, changes to the climate have hurt Iranian farmers’ crop yield, income, and welfare. Damages to the agricultural sector are also likely to decrease relative rural household expenditure and increase food prices in these areas. Farming is the primary source of income for farmers in rural areas of Iran, and harm to the agricultural sector results in widespread poverty. Though most damages are drought-related, severe incidents of flooding have completely destroyed some rural Iranian’s farms, homes, and shelters. Additionally, water shortages have caused over 200,000 tribal individuals within Iran to lose their source of income.
Though economic harm is primarily centered around rural areas, urban areas have also been impacted. Damages to farmlands have increased food prices within cities. Dust storms, increasing because of climate change, have engulfed cities and left economic activity frozen. However, most notable is the impact of rural to urban migration within Iran. Record movements from rural to urban areas have been recorded in Iran as a result of better economic opportunities and a continual worsening of the environment within rural areas. This population growth within urban areas has been deemed to be unsustainable and has increased the levels of unemployment within Iran.
Health Implications
Climate change has decreased the overall quality of health and the subsequent quality of life in Iran. Without proper action, this is unlikely to improve and may ultimately increase social unrest within Iran.
General Health Consequences
Over 97% of Iran’s population has experienced the effects of drought. This, as it affects agriculture, too, can decrease the nutritional values in food. Typical issues that arise as a result of droughts are micronutrient deficiencies that can result in anemia and other diseases, psychological stress, and increased susceptibility to diseases. Additionally, water shortages can increase the occurrence of wildfires and dust storms, which both can cause respiratory problems. Water scarcity can also hinder the productivity of health care services and can lower the quality of aid.
Climate change has increased the number of deaths related to poor air quality and increased heat. Iran has experienced a sharp increase in extreme heat temperatures, and the number of warm days increases by 12 to 14 days per decade. Many Iranians must choose between working in extreme heat or losing wages, and within the past three decades, there has been an “excess mortality” during heat waves in Iran. In addition, cardiovascular and respiratory deaths have been recorded as a result of the increase in both dust storms and pollution levels. Both the short-term and the long-term effects of chemicals released into the atmosphere in Tehran have raised health concerns and been deemed in need of urgent action. Air pollution has been cited for causing over 40,000 “premature deaths” in Iran per year.
Climate change has also increased the incidence rate of diseases in Iran. The increased humidity has raised the concentration of mosquitoes, and consequently, potential carriers of malaria in Iran. The long-term health effects of this disease include mental confusion, seizures, comas, and even death. Previously, malaria rates within Iran were dropping; however, with the increase of mosquitoes, the current controlled malaria rates will likely increase within the coming years. Cholera is another disease that thrives in higher temperatures, and estimation models indicate an increase in cholera outbreaks within Iran as the climate continues to grow warmer and wetter. This, like malaria, has severe long-term effects such as potential kidney failure, comas, and possible death. It was previously a severe issue in many Iranian provinces. Finally, increased temperatures also brings with it an rise in the distribution and incidence of foodborne, waterborne, and vector-borne diseases.
The Paris Agreement advocates for the implementation of new health care services primarily geared towards combating the negative health effects of climate change. Though Iran has not ratified the agreement yet, future actions aimed at climate change could allow for Iran to add in more health care services to combat the growing issues within the country.
Social Implications
Social unrest has increased across Iran in light of the growing consequences of climate change, primarily regarding the economic and health impacts of it. Though protests are seldom strictly aimed at environmental issues, the changing climate has been deemed to be an inciting factor behind a multitude of social upheavals. With the majority of climate consequences occurring within rural areas, it is likely that urban areas will see an increase in population and a subsequent increase in societal divides within the coming years. As the government continues to not remedy the growing conundrum, social unrest and increasing societal divides are only likely to grow.
Civil Unrest
The water crisis within Iran is perhaps the largest cause of upheaval in Iran due to climate change. Farmers in Varzaneh have protested over the now inhospitable and drylands they once thrived on. They called upon the government to help and directed most of their anger towards Iranian officials due to their mismanagement of water. In Isfahan, the Zayanderud, or the River of Life, has almost completely dried up. Exacerbating this situation, the Iranian government diverted water away from the Isfahan province. This resulted in social upheaval in the area and mass protests. Additionally, as Lake Urmia began to dry, many protests and demonstrations occurred against government policies that were responsible for it. Thousands of Iranians joined this protest. Protests over Lake Urmia came in the form of chants during football matches, short films, and art disseminated across social media. Most recently, in July 2021, protests and marches sprung up in response to water shortages across southwestern Iran. Though these are some major examples of climate protests in Iran, the vast majority of protests are small and located within Iranian villages. A popular slogan of this movement within these small villages is “Death to farmers, long live oppressors!”. The government has addressed these concerns, but protests are typically met with crackdowns, and many protesters have been arrested.
Another major source of discontent within Iran is the pollution within major cities; many Iranians have died or have been hospitalized as a result of air pollution. In 2017, large dust storms encompassed the Khuzestan province, causing water shortages and power outages. Protests were incited by this but later turned towards other environmental concerns, including pollution, and were mainly targeted towards the government’s inaction. In Tehran, protesters called for the resignation of the local governor in response to environmental damages. Ahvaz, Iran’s most polluted city, experienced social upheaval after locals began to protest in response to the growing concern of pollution levels. Compounding the air pollution, water pollution is also an increasing issue, and this has led to a growing number of water shortages in an already water-starved land. Protests were incited across the Khuzestan province because of this. Though these are just a few specific examples, pollution has and remains a major area of contention within urban areas of Iran.
Flooding has resulted in a large amount of displacement. Thousands of villages have been deserted, and officials predict that millions of other individuals will be displaced by drought. Along with issues of income loss and livelihood changes, mass migration has occurred between rural to urban areas, which has created an environment conducive to social instability. This migration has led to overcrowding within cities, and in Tehran in 2014, there was a reported 1.6 people per room due to the population density. While this is not entirely due to the effects of climate change, global warming is accelerating this trend. Urban population is expected to grow by 1.3% annually. Household overcrowding has grown to be an issue across the entire country of Iran, with some provinces with over 20% of their population affected by it. Rapid population growth within areas poses risks to the health and stability of an area and could lead to future social unrest if living standards and conditions remain poor.
Climate change is often an underreported cause behind protesting in Iran, as most social unrest tends to be specific in regards to the political or economic state of Iran. This, in part, is due to the fact that many citizens in Iran fear the politicization of climate change. However, due to the increasingly severe living conditions that are being exacerbated by it, political action is often called upon. Two hundred and sixty-one environmental protests took place between January 2018 and October 2019, with environmental consequences acting as an issue magnifier within Iran.
Societal Divides
Economic class divides, particularly between rural and urban areas, have become a growing issue within Iran. Approximately 4.3 million rural households rely almost solely on agriculture as their main source of income, which has been affected by climate change. Many rural farmers are now forced to seek employment in neighboring cities in order to sustain their livelihoods or have altogether abandoned their work in rural areas. Those left in rural areas face an increasingly difficult economy, and their numbers are dwindling, leaving even less incentive for the creation of employment opportunities there. Not only that, but these differences in needs between rural and urban areas have generated tensions on a political front.
Climate change has amplified these divides as lower classes tend to bear the brunt of the health and economic consequences of environmental issues. Middle and upper-class Iranians can afford air conditioners. However, lower classes typically cannot within Iran, forcing them to choose between working in deadly temperatures –an ever-growing problem within Iran– or losing work. This wealth divide, and subsequently, divide in the severity of climate impacts on Iranians, does not bode well for the future of strong climate action policy, as the wealthy are typically those in power.
Of course, societal divides are not limited to wealth divides. Ethnically, a similar trend is occurring partly as a result of uneven aid distribution. Many ethnic and religious minorities are often the most impacted by climate change as political priorities are set on other sects of the Iranian population. The Turks and the Kurds, who used to reside along Lake Urmia, were most impacted by the lake’s drying. Water was diverted from areas majorly inhabited by ethnic minorities and instead routed to central parts of Iran. These policies have impacted the food security of such groups while also forcing migration to other areas of Iran, which has increased ethnic tensions.
International Interplay
As climate change is a global issue, it must be tackled on a global scale. Because of this, cooperation between countries is a necessity. However, as each country is faced with its own challenges, nationalism rather than globalism is at the forefront of policies. As such, Iran currently does not contribute much to the fight against climate change on a global scale, citing sanctions as the primary reasoning behind this. Regionally, however, this is changing as water scarcity increases in the broader Middle East. Within the next few years, even while Iran may not alter its global climate change policy, a regional agreement on water supplies will likely become a regional necessity.
Foreign Responses to Climate Change
Climate change was first recognized to be a significant issue in 1979 when the first World Climate Conference was held. However since then the negative impacts of climate change have hardly been mitigated, and in fact, have grown more severe. This is the result of multiple factors: 1) the global climate will likely take decades to recover from the current damage done to it, and 2) GHG emissions need to reach a net-zero by the end of the century in order to reverse some of the damage, which requires global cooperation.
Response to climate change has been mixed. Overall, climate change is generally accepted as an important issue within the modern world. However, action taken to mitigate this is highly dependent on both the nation and the current leader of the nation. The Paris Agreement in 2016 was signed by 196 countries, all of the United Nations countries. However, seven countries, including Iran, have not ratified the agreement, which legally binds them to the contract. Additionally, leadership change significantly alters the adherence to the Paris Agreement, as in 2020, former President Trump of the United States pulled out from the Paris Agreement. The following year, President Biden reentered the climate agreement. Climate change action, to be fully effective, must be continuous and therefore requires constant and global mitigation efforts.
This is not to say that the Paris Agreement is, in itself, the end-all for climate change action, as there are many countries who do not follow their own goals set, or who have set goals that allow them to increase their GHG emissions. For example, Russia set its emissions rate goal higher than their emissions were in 2000, which actually allowed for an increase in GHG emissions. On the other hand, many countries, such as China, the United States, and Germany, have all begun climate change mitigation efforts specific to their own country outside of the Paris Agreement to prevent their own emissions. Despite these caveats, the Paris Agreement is an important agreement to look to for the overall global attitudes towards climate change, which can be difficult to assess, as some countries actually are benefiting from climate change. Russia specifically, though they do have some consequences, is currently thriving with longer growing seasons and an opening of the arctic to allow them to access more gas. Because of this current divide in the effects of climate change, rallying behind this cause, even outside of each county’s own issues, is even more difficult.
Climate change mitigation does not come without its damages to the current economy of most nations. Many rely on oil and natural gas as a large source of income, and mitigation efforts come at the expense of this industry. This means that in some cases, specifically as mentioned with Iran, a complete economic reformation is not possible unless at the expense of their national stability. And, a complete economic reformation is not desired if other countries on better footing do not first take the plunge. Iran has already asserted that it is unlikely to engage in climate mitigation efforts with its current economy and relations with the West.
Countries are less likely to pursue climate change mitigation efforts in light of economic strife, and therefore, in response to the recent pandemic, climate change reformation is unlikely to be an important topic on the global forum.
Water Crisis in the Middle East
Iran and most of the Middle East are starved for water. Because of this, many neighboring countries of Iran, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are also engaging in large-scale projects to produce water for their parched lands, such as desalination projects. Dams are another popular source of water preservation. Afghanistan has constructed a dam on the Helmand River in order to ensure some water security within their regions. However, this action increases the stress of water on regions in Iran, specifically their Hamoun Wetlands and has begun to cause political disagreements between Iran and Afghanistan. Afghanistan is not the only country constructing dams that have interfered with water security in Iran; Turkey is another one. Former President Rouhani placed blame on both of these countries for potentially cutting off important water sources to Iran. This was not met kindly, and these countries contradicted the allegations swiftly, leading to further disagreements.
Iran, for its part, is also building dams, having announced the construction of 109 dams in 2019. Iran’s rivers flow through Iraq, and the dams are expected to cause a 50% cut in water supply to Iraq by 2030. The Prime Minister of Iraq has called for cooperation on water sources, as he fears that there could be complete water depletion to the Kurdistan regions of Iraq. However, significant agreements have not been made, and a stalemate of water diplomacy has taken hold of the countries.
The water crisis is not a new issue, and as such, treaties and agreements were established early on in the crisis to set the groundwork for cooperation between these nations. In February 2021, Iran and Afghanistan signed an agreement regarding the Helmand River, reanalyzing the river for water rights in accordance with their agreements from 1973.
While tensions have arisen, there is hope of future cooperation. Talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia have commenced in an attempt to find common solutions for their water crisis. Though political issues remain a problem between these major countries, environmental issues pose a unique potential future of cooperation between the conflicting nations.
Conclusion
Iran, like many countries, has been negatively affected by the consequences of climate change. Given its current economic situation, it is unlikely that this will be remedied soon.
With the increasingly prominent consequences of climate change come adverse health effects, further economic complications, and widespread social strife. Health issues will likely increase across Iran, given the ever-growing pollution levels and increasing temperatures. These are difficult issues to combat and there will likely be a general health downturn in the overall population of Iran within the coming decades. Civil unrest in regards to government inaction is likely to grow in response to environmental issues. And, with reprieve of climate change taking decades to take effect, this social strife is unlikely to completely disappear even in light of government inaction.
Economically, Iran faces many challenges regardless of whether it combats climate change. In particular, climate mitigation policies will come at the expense of its oil and natural gas industry, even as climate change itself already poses fairly serious risks to the broader current economy.
Internationally, risks are posed to global relations. Regionally, the water crisis in the Middle East is most pressing. While tensions are taking hold between Iran and its neighbors, cooperation is a requirement for survival. This opens up a potential future for more close-knit relations between Iran and its neighboring countries.
