Iran Digest Week of April 7- April 14
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
Leaked Pentagon Documents Shows How Ukraine War is Bleeding Into Middle East
A recently leaked cache of highly classified U.S. intelligence reports sheds light on the growing risk of a U.S. conflict with Iran, as well as apparent Israeli efforts to directly involve the U.S. in operations targeting Iranian interests in the Middle East. The documents expose the sensitivity of the geopolitical situation, and how tension between Russia and Israel could escalate dramatically in the context of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The set of classified documents is reported to have been shared online in a gaming forum. Police on Thursday arrested a 21-year-old U.S. Air Force National Guardsman named Jack Teixeira on suspicion of involvement in the leak.
A briefing document dated February 28, marked “Top Secret” and prepared by the Defense Intelligence Agency, details four scenarios it considers possible under which Israel could provide lethal aid to Ukraine — something Washington has sought but that Israel, which has ties to Russia, has refused to do.
Women of Iran
Iranian women post images without hijabs despite crackdown
Scores of Iranian women are posting images of themselves online while not wearing the hijab, as a police deadline for cracking down on violators of the country’s compulsory dress code is approaching.
Social media platforms like Twitter and Instagram – which Iranians access by circumventing government blocks – have been flooded in recent days with images of mostly young women posing wearing their garments of choice in Iran’s warming spring weather.
Some are only ditching their headscarves, but others are also doing away with the loose-fitting gowns that laws passed shortly after the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution require women to wear. A few have even photographed themselves wearing shorts and skirts in public, risking arrest.
Economy
Travel Figures Show Social Class Inequality Widening In Iran
Figures from the recent Nowruz holidays reflect a widening class gap between Iran’s rich and poor.
Travelling to other cities, historic sites and seaside resorts has been very popular Nowruz activity for Iranians since the advent of modern transportation in mid-20th century.
While four- and five-star hotels remained busy during the holiday season, two- and three-star properties were vastly under their usual seasonal average.
Inside Iran
Iran executions surged in 2022 to 'spread fear' - report
Executions in Iran rose by 75% in 2022, with at least 582 people put to death as authorities sought to "spread fear" among protesters, campaign groups say.
The figure was the highest since 2015, according to Norway-based Iran Human Rights (IHR) and France's Together Against the Death Penalty (ECPM).
Their report is based both on official announcements and sources inside Iran.
(BBC)
Regional Politics
Saudi Arabia hosts landmark Iran, Syria visits after years of bitter divisions
Saudi Arabia hosted landmark delegations from Iran and Syria on Wednesday as Gulf countries prepare for re-establishing diplomatic ties after years of bitter divisions.
Only hours after Iranian state media said a delegation had touched down in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia announced the arrival of Syria's foreign minister in Jeddah -- the first such trip since the country's civil war broke out in 2011.
Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad met with his Saudi counterpart and discussed "the necessary steps to achieve a complete political settlement to the Syrian crisis", the Saudi foreign ministry said in a statement.
Iran, Russia, China FMs meet, see opportunity in post-US Afghanistan
Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian stressed regional cooperation in restoring peace to Afghanistan, as he met in Uzbekistan with counterparts from China, Russia and Pakistan for the latest security situation under the Taliban.
During the four-way meeting with China's Qin Gang, Russia's Sergey Lavrov and Pakistan's Hina Rabbani Khar on Thursday, Amir-Abdollahian said that what Afghanistan needs is "regional solutions rather than Western interference," according to a report published by the Iranian Foreign Ministry.
The meeting was held on the sidelines of an international summit in the Uzbek city of Samarkand. The previous summits of this sort were hosted by Pakistan in 2021 and Iran and China in 2022.
Iranian press review: Raisi's 'gas-for-food' programme with Iraq criticised
President Ebrahim Raisi's administration is facing mounting local criticism over accepting Iraq's offer of what the opposition has dubbed the "gas-for-food" programme, in reference to a UN programme established for Iraq before the 2003 invasion.
On 7 April, local media quoted Iran's petroleum minister Jawad Owji as saying that in return for exporting gas to Iraq, Tehran would receive only food, medicines and humanitarian goods.
Following the news, critics of Raisi's economic plans reminded him that one of his presidential campaign slogans was to improve bilateral economic relations with neighbouring countries and to unlock Iran's assets in Iraq that have been frozen due to US sanctions.
Global Relations
Iran and Nicaragua Discussed Military Cooperation, Leaked Report Says
Iran and Nicaragua held discussions in February about bolstering their military cooperation as a way of countering American influence in Latin America, according to an intelligence update contained in a cache of leaked documents that appears to be based on electronic intercepts gathered by the C.I.A.
A trip by an Iranian delegation to Nicaragua that month was no secret. Both the Nicaraguan and Iranian authorities trumpeted the visit, though their announcements were vague on details, focused generally on trade and did not mention any talks about military cooperation.
But the intelligence report, dated Feb. 23, notes that the delegation, led by Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, had met with senior Nicaraguan Army commanders. According to the report, the commanders told Mr. Amir Abdollahian that Nicaragua opposed “perceived U.S. efforts to expand influence in Latin America and expressed a willingness to engage with Tehran and other like-minded countries.”
Russian Airlines send its aircraft to Iran for repair for first time in history due to sanctions
Russian airline Aeroflot [Russian Airlines] has sent its aircraft to Iran for repairs for the first time in its history amid Western sanctions.
"The key task of sending the first A330 to Mahan Air for repair is maintaining the aircraft's landing gear struts. Previously, Aeroflot used other providers’ facilities, including Hong Kong-based HAECO, for these purposes. In the summer of 2021, the carrier signed a new long-term agreement to maintain and overhaul aircraft components with this company," RBC writes.
However, international sanctions imposed in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine have affected, among other things, repair services and the supply of spare parts to Russian carriers.
Analysis
Are Iran and Azerbaijan coming to the brink of war?
By: Fardin Eftekhari
The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 and the ensuing ceasefire agreement allowed Azerbaijan to capture significant parts of the disputed region.
Iran did not oppose Azerbaijan’s aggressive approach to restoring its territorial integrity, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei explicitly defending Baku’s stance against Armenia. Yet, Azerbaijan has since made a push to seize more territory and fundamentally alter the regional geopolitical landscape - with the help of Turkey and Israel.
Azerbaijan’s strategy faces the greatest regional opposition from Iran, which maintains that Azerbaijan’s postwar position is not consistent with guaranteeing the country’s territorial integrity, but rather with changing international borders and encroaching on Armenian territory.
