Iran Digest Week of May 14- May 21
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by Communications Associate Elizabeth Kos. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
US Says Iran Talks Will Continue Despite Upheaval in Israel and Palestine
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has reaffirmed the Biden administration's plans to move forward with nuclear negotiations with Iran, despite Republican calls to scrap the talks over Tehran's alleged support of the Gaza-based Hamas movement.
A group of 43 Republican Senators sent a letter to Blinken on Wednesday, asking the secretary of state to call off the multilateral nuclear talks in Vienna over Tehran's alleged involvement with Hamas, which governs the Israel-blockaded Gaza Strip.
Blinken, during a joint press conference with his Australian counterpart on Thursday, said he could not confirm that Iran had any involvement in Hamas' most recent actions. But he said that if Tehran did have a hand in supporting the movement then that would only further highlight the importance of the negotiations.
Rouhani Claims US Has Agreed to Lift Key Iran Sanctions
President Hassan Rouhani declared that an agreement in principle has been reached with the United States under which Washington will remove a series of crippling sanctions against Tehran.
At a televised Cabinet meeting May 20, Rouhani said the relief will cover oil and petrochemical industries, shipping, insurance and banking sectors. The Iranian president noted there are only some details that need to be negotiated.
The comments came one day after Iranian negotiators concluded a fourth round of talks in Vienna with representatives from the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China and Germany. Nearly all the parties, including the EU representative — as the chairman of the meeting — signaled optimism toward a deal. The negotiators now return to their respective capitals for "final consultations" before clinching a final agreement.
Nuclear Accord
Iran’s Oil Exports Rise as U.S. Looks to Rejoin Nuclear Accord
Iran is exporting hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil each day, violating American sanctions even as world powers negotiate to lift the economic penalties and revitalize a nuclear accord that was rendered all but defunct by the Trump administration..
That has raised questions about the effectiveness of American sanctions when they are imposed unilaterally, as they were during the Trump administration. And it suggests that Iran and its oil buyers may be betting that any penalties they may face are worth the risk as the Biden administration works to rejoin the nuclear deal that Mr. Trump jettisoned in May 2018.
Inside Iran
Iran’s Hard-Line Judiciary Chief Registers Presidential Run
Iran’s judiciary chief, a hard-line cleric linked to mass executions in 1988, registered on Saturday to run in the Islamic Republic’s presidential election next month, a vote that comes as negotiators struggle to resuscitate Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powers.
The cleric, Ebrahim Raisi, is among the more prominent hopefuls — he garnered nearly 16 million votes in the 2017 election. He lost that race to Iran’s relatively moderate President Hassan Rouhani, whose administration struck the atomic accord.
Raisi’s close ties to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his popularity — due partly to his televised anti-corruption campaign — could make him a favorite in the election. Analysts already believe that hard-liners enjoy an edge as Rouhani is term limited from running again. The public has widely grown disenchanted with Rouhani’s administration after 2018, when then-President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the nuclear deal.
Iran Oil Minister Zanganeh to Retire at End of Rouhani’s Term
Iran’s veteran oil minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, will retire when President Hassan Rouhani’s term ends this year, closing a career that started with the birth of the Islamic Republic in 1979 and has often been defined by his country’s turbulent relationship with the U.S.
OPEC’s longest-serving oil minister said he won’t accept any proposal from Rouhani’s successor – who’ll be chosen during next month’s election – to continue in his post.
“If they offer me the presidency I won’t accept it, let alone the ministry,” the 68-year-old engineer told reporters in Tehran, according to state-run Shana news agency. “I won’t take another official post.”
Iran Unveils its Strongest Domestic Supercomputer
Iran has unveiled a supercomputer – its strongest till date – developed domestically by Tehran’s Amirkabir University of Technology (AUT), according to the state-run news website IRNA.
The supercomputer – named Simorgh after a mythical Persian bird – has a performance capacity of 0.56 petaflops at the moment and will reach one petaflops in two months.
The supercomputer will offer large-scale data analysis services for a variety of state-run and private scientific research, according to its developers. Among other things, it will be used in analysing artificial intelligence, crunching traffic and weather data, and image processing.
Iran Displays Long-Range Combat Drone, Names it “Gaza”
Iran on Friday displayed a home-built combat drone that it said had a range of 2,000 km (1,250 miles), naming it "Gaza" in honour of the Palestinians' struggle against Israel, state media reported.
The West sees Iran's missiles both as a conventional military threat to regional stability and a possible delivery mechanism for nuclear weapons should Tehran develop them. Iran denies trying to build nuclear arms.
The Revolutionary Guards said the new drone was capable of flying for 35 hours and carrying 13 bombs and 500 kg (1,100 lbs)of electronics equipment, the state news agency IRNA reported.
(Reuters)
Regional Politics
Iran’s Downing of Ukraine Jet ‘Act of Terrorism’ Rules Canadian Court
A Canadian court has ruled Iran's shooting down of a Ukrainian passenger jet in January 2020 a deliberate "act of terrorism" paving the way for compensation.
Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 was shot down by Iran's Revolutionary Guards on 8 January 2020, shortly after it had taken off from Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport.
All 176 aboard were killed, including 85 Canadian citizens and permanent residents.
The Iranian government later said the incident was a "disastrous mistake" by its forces at a time when they were on high alert in a regional confrontation with the United States.
After Backing Assad, Iran and Russia Compete for Influence and Spoils of War
As the fighting winds down across much of Syria, President Bashar al-Assad's two main backers, Iran and Russia, have been competing for influence and the spoils of war.
Both countries have promoted their respective languages, Farsi and Russian, for instruction in Syrian schools. Both have signed contracts to construct flour mills amid a dire shortage of bread. Both are building power plants.
And both have been vying for contracts in oil extraction, phosphate mining and port construction worth many millions of dollars, according to Jihad Yazigi, the head of the Syria Report, a leading business newsletter. “They are targeting the same sectors, although they haven’t had the same success,” he said.
Analysis
Iran’s Presidential Elections Are All About the Post-Khamenei Era
By: Alex Vatanka
Iran will hold presidential elections on June 18 and despite considerable efforts by the authorities, the battle at the ballot box is set to be a lifeless affair. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the unelected supreme leader who has ruled over Iran since 1989, is not on the ballot. Nor are the Revolutionary Guards, the armed defenders of the Islamic Republic’s theocratic system. These two institutions wield the real power in Tehran, not the Presidential Palace.
For the June 2021 elections, aspiring candidates had five days to register. A total of 592 applicants, including 40 women, did so. In about 24 hours, some 93% of them were said by the Guardian Council not to meet the criteria. The 12-man council, which is controlled by Khamenei, decides who can run for office. No woman has ever been allowed to run in the Islamic Republic since 1979. Of the about 40 men that will be considered, all can be expected to be political insiders that Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards can live with as possible occupants of the Presidential Palace.
