Iran Digest Week of October 22 - October 29
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by Communications Associate Elizabeth Kos. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
Iran Responsible for Drone Attack on U.S. Base in Syria
Last week’s drone attack on a military base in southern Syria that houses U.S. forces was likely carried out at the behest of Iran. While the drones used in the attack were not launched from Iran, officials believe that Iran provided the resource and encouraged the attack at the outpost at al-Tanf Syria. At least five drones laden with explosive charges were directed at the base—striking both the Syrian and U.S. sides of the military facility.
The presence of the American garrison within Syria remains controversial as both the Syrian government in Damascus and the Russian government consider it to be illegal. The Syrian regime has called for the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Syria.
American-Iranian Man Detained in Iran Undergoes Surgery
An 84-year-old Iranian-American man who has been detained in Iran for more than five years underwent surgery on Tuesday to clear a blockage in an artery to the brain that his family and supporters have described as life-threatening.
The surgery on Baquer Namazi “appears to have been a success and Baquer is awake, although he remains groggy,” according to a statement from Namazi’s attorney, Jared Genser. He is expected to remain in the intensive care unit for two more days and then be transferred to a general recovery ward before being released.
Genser and Namazi’s son, Babak, urged Iran weeks ago to lift a travel ban that has kept his father inside the country so that he could receive medical care in another country. Genser submitted a brief earlier this month to the United Nations saying Iran’s actions violated Namazi’s rights.
Turkey’s Halkbank Can Be Prosecuted Over Iran Sanction Violations, U.S. Appeals Court Rules
A U.S. appeals court ruled on Friday that state-owned Turkish lender Halkbank can be prosecuted over accusations it helped Iran evade American sanctions.
Prosecutors accused Halkbank of converting oil revenue into gold and then cash to benefit Iranian interests and documenting fake food shipments to justify transfers of oil proceeds.
They also said Halkbank helped Iran secretly transfer $20 billion of restricted funds, with at least $1 billion laundered through the U.S. financial system.
(Reuters)
Warhol in Tehran: Iranians Flock to American Pop Art Exhibit
The circular floors of the Iranian capital’s Museum of Contemporary Art display a sprawling line-up of 18 classic Warhol works, recognizable at first glance: silk-screen portraits of Communist China’s founding leader Mao Zedong and Hollywood star Marilyn Monroe, paintings of Campbell Soup cans and a vintage print of former first lady Jacqueline Kennedy.
Warhol’s works are among a permanent art collection worth billions of dollars kept in the Tehran museum vault. As oil boomed during the reign of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the country acquired thousands of pieces, including Monets, Picassos and Jackson Pollocks, before the 1979 Islamic Revolution ousted the pro-Western monarchy and vaulted Shiite clerics to power.
Nuclear Accord
Iran to Return to Nuclear Deal Talks in Vienna Next Month
Iran will return to nuclear talks before the end of November, its chief negotiator said Wednesday, restoring the Biden administration’s hopes that it can revive the 2015 nuclear deal.
Iran’s return to the negotiations would end a five-month hiatus in talks that has enabled Tehran’s new hardline government to press ahead with its nuclear program.
U.S. and European officials, however, remain cautious about the prospects of reaching agreement with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s government on the specific steps that Iran and the U.S. would have to take to restore the agreement.
COVID-19
Detailed Reconstruction of the Iranian COVID-19 Epidemic Reveals High Attack Rates of SARS-CoV-2 in Several Provinces
Since the first cases of COVID-19 were reported in Qom, Iran, almost 19 months ago, the transmission dynamics across the country and the health burden of COVID-19 has remained largely unknown due to the scarcity of epidemiological analyses and lack of provincial data on the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. For the first time, we reconstruct the epidemic trajectory across the country and assess the level of under-reporting in infections and deaths using province-level age-stratified weekly all-cause mortality data.
Our estimates suggest that as of 2021-09-17, only 48% (95% confidence interval 43-55%) of COVID-19 deaths in Iran have been reported. We find that in the most affected provinces such as Qazvin, Qom, and East Azerbaijan approximately 0.4% of the population have died of COVID-19 so far.
(MedRxiv)
Inside Iran
A Cyberattack Paralyzed Every Gas Station in Iran
Iran's president said Wednesday that a cyberattack which paralyzed every gas station in the Islamic Republic was designed to get "people angry by creating disorder and disruption," as long lines still snaked around the pumps a day after the incident began.
Ebrahim Raisi's remarks stopped short of assigning blame for the attack, which rendered useless the government-issued electronic cards that many Iranians use to buy subsidized fuel at the pump. However, his remarks suggested that he and others in the theocracy believe anti-Iranian forces carried out the assault.
He added that an investigation into the incident was underway.
Tehran Holds First Public Friday Prayers in Almost 2 Years
The Iranian capital Tehran has held its main public Friday prayer service for the first time in 20 months, after it was halted amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Organizers said beforehand that all health protocols would be followed to protect the expected hundreds of worshippers during the ceremony at Tehran University. Iran’s National Coronavirus Taskforce, which had ordered a halt to the prayers, authorized its resumption.
Public Friday prayers have been underway in other cities, especially in smaller towns across the country since the summer. Individual mosques have been free to hold normal services since early October.
Regional Politics
Afghanistan’s Regional Neighbors Gather in Tehran to Discuss Its Future
Senior officials of Afghanistan’s neighbouring states have gathered in Iran’s capital for a one-day conference to discuss the situation in the Taliban-ruled country.
The foreign ministers of Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan met on Wednesday in Tehran, joined by their counterparts from China and Russia via video link.
They all welcomed the conference and emphasised on the necessity of continued cooperation by the neighbouring states to avoid a collapse or civil war in Afghanistan, which would have severe ramifications for the region and beyond.
Analysis
Where to Now for Saudi-Iranian Dialogue?
By: Mohammed Alsulami
There are many suspicions about Iran’s motives for trying to begin dialogue with Saudi Arabia, especially at the current time.
Perhaps its most important motive is to revive the stalled nuclear talks with the P5+1. After six rounds of talks, no genuine breakthrough has been reached. The parties involved are edging closer to the conclusion that the nuclear deal has died in light of Iran’s refusal to discuss regional countries’ demands, particularly over its ballistic missile program and belligerent behavior.
Therefore, against the backdrop of growing regional and international pressure, many observers of Iranian affairs believe that Tehran has begun to pursue a path to cosmetically resolve its disputes with the Gulf states directly, especially with Saudi Arabia.
