Iran Digest Week of May 3- May 10
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US- Iran Relations
U.S. Seeks Shift In Iranian 'Decision-Making Calculus' Through Saudi-Israeli Normalization
The United States wants to force a gradual shift in Iran’s “decision-making calculus” by signing a defense deal with Saudi Arabia and securing the normalization of relations between Riyadh and Israel.
“We continue to work with allies and partners to enhance their capabilities to deter and counter the threats Iran poses, impose costs on Iran for its actions, and seek to shift Iran’s decision-making calculus over time,” a U.S. State Department spokesperson told RFE/RL.
The security package has several components, including a bilateral U.S.-Saudi defense pact aimed at enhancing the Sunni kingdom’s deterrence capabilities. But Washington is adamant that regardless of how close the Americans and the Saudis are to a bilateral agreement, the security package cannot materialize without Saudi-Israeli normalization.
Top US University Playing Along in Iran’s Soft War
Princeton University has been trying for more than a decade to place itself at the center of US-Iran diplomacy, a new Semafor report has revealed, offering an academic position to a former high-ranking Tehran official.
The university has also liaised with IRGC-connected diplomats for student exchange programs, only to see two of its graduate students detained or kidnapped by the IRGC and its allied armed groups in Iraq.
With its second student still missing, Princeton’s experience is a “cautionary tale of how American institutions can be ensnared in the internal politics of Tehran and Washington and become pawns in those battles,” the report’s author, Jay Solomon, writes. “[The] Congress is now formally probing the school’s ties to Iranian regime officials.”
As China and Iran hunt for dissidents in the US, the FBI is racing to counter the threat
After a student leader of the historic Tiananmen Square protests entered a 2022 congressional race in New York, a Chinese intelligence operative wasted little time enlisting a private investigator to hunt for any mistresses or tax problems that could upend the candidate’s bid, prosecutors say.
“In the end,” the operative ominously told his contact, “violence would be fine too.”
As an Iranian journalist and activist living in exile in the United States aired criticism of Iran’s human rights abuses, Tehran was listening too. Members of an Eastern European organized crime gang scouted her Brooklyn home and plotted to kill her in a murder-for-hire scheme directed from Iran, according to the Justice Department, which foiled the plan and brought criminal charges.
(AP News)
Nuclear Accord
Iran warns it will change nuclear doctrine if ‘existence threatened’
Iran could be pushed into building a nuclear weapon if Israel threatens its existence, an adviser to the country’s supreme leader has warned.
“We have no decision to build a nuclear bomb but should Iran’s existence be threatened, there will be no choice but to change our military doctrine,” said Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Thursday.
“In the case of an attack on our nuclear facilities by the Zionist regime, our deterrence will change,” he was reported as saying by Iran’s Student News Network.
(AlJazeera)
Women of Iran
Iran Deploys Drones, Surveillance to Enforce Hijab Rules
Iranian authorities are using a combination of violent tactics and invasive surveillance to enforce mandatory hijab rules on women.
This coincides with the implementation of the government's "Noor Plan," which aims to tighten restrictions on women's clothing.
At the recent 35th Tehran International Book Fair, eyewitnesses reported the use of quadcopters equipped with cameras to target women not wearing hijabs.
Economy
Iran’s Stalled Economy: A Struggle for Sustainability
For decades, Iran’s economic performance has been far from satisfactory. While headline figures like average economic growth rate might have looked acceptable between 1989 and 2017, a closer look reveals a troubling reality – a lack of productivity improvement. This fundamental weakness has severe consequences, turning economic underperformance into a ticking time bomb.
Iran’s economic growth has been heavily reliant on capital account inflows. Periods with strong capital inflows saw sluggish growth, highlighting an unsustainable dependence on external factors. This vulnerability is particularly concerning considering Iran’s vast natural resources, talented population, and strategic geographical location. These advantages haven’t translated into stable, long-term growth. Instead, as capital inflows waned, Iran’s fragile growth sputtered and went into freefall.
The situation is further compounded by the deteriorating state of Iran’s various forms of capital. In the area of physical capital, encompassing machinery and infrastructure, negative growth rates exceeding 40% during the 2000s paint a bleak picture. International observers view Iran’s economy as having very low potential for maintaining its physical capital stock.
Inside Iran
Iranians vote in a parliamentary runoff election after hard-liners dominate initial balloting
Iranians voted Friday in a runoff election for the remaining seats in the country’s parliament after hard-line politicians dominated March balloting.
Voting was extended for four hours because it was a weekend holiday.
The official IRNA news agency said that counting began immediately after polls closed. Final results were expected by Monday, though counts in smaller constituencies will likely will be announced sooner.
(AP News)
Global Relations
Coldplay and Sting call for release of Toomaj Salehi, Iranian rapper sentenced to death
More than 100 figures from the worlds of music, culture and human rights activism – including Coldplay and Sting – have signed a statement calling for the release of the Iranian rapper Toomaj Salehi who has been sentenced to death in Iran after protesting in support of women’s rights.
The 33-year-old, who was a vocal supporter of the Women, Life, Freedom movement in Iran was sentenced to death by a court in the city of Isfahan on 24 April, according to his lawyer.
He was originally arrested in September 2022, and spent a year and 21 days in prison, including 252 days in solitary confinement. After being released on bail, he described being “severely tortured” during his time in prison. He was arrested again two weeks after his release, in December 2023, and charged with “corruption on Earth”.
Zimbabwe willing to use Iran's expertise in health, environment
Zimbabwe has expressed interest in utilizing Iran’s capabilities and experiences to boost technology in the fields of health and environment, and also agriculture and aerospace.
Attending a meeting on Wednesday in Tehran, Amon Murwira, Zimbabwe’s Minister of Higher and Tertiary Education, Science and Technology Development, and Rouhollah Dehqani-Firouzabadi, the Vice President for Science, Technology, and Knowledge-based Economy, discussed ways to boost cooperation between the two countries in various sectors, ISNA reported.
Referring to Zimbabwe’s rich natural resources, Murwira said knowledge and technology are needed to be able to use these resources; Iran's scientific and technological capabilities can help the country to enhance its services, increase welfare, and make progress. So it welcomes scientific, innovation, social, and industrial cooperation with Iran.
Analysis
Who Will Be Iran’s Next Leader? Not Khamenei’s Son
By: Shahir Shahidsaless
April 17 marked Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s 85th birthday and coincided with a critical juncture for Iran as tensions with Israel escalated at historic proportions. While details regarding Khamenei’s physical state remain confidential, unprecedented remarks from the head of the Supreme Leader’s medical team stirred speculation about Khamenei’s true condition.
In an interview, Alireza Marandi stated, “God has shown great favor to the Islamic Republic and all of us by keeping him [Khamenei] in good health… He is remarkably fit, defying his age.”
Broadcasting these comments, rather than reassuring the public, did the opposite, renewing questions about potential successors.
