Iran Digest Week of May 17- May 24
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
US Senators Slam Blinken Over Iran Policy ‘Disaster’
The Biden administration’s Iran policy came under intense scrutiny Tuesday, as Republican senators grilled Secretary of State Antony Blinken over a message of condolence for Ebrahim Raisi’s death, and the failure to enforce existing oil sanction.
Leading the field in a Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC) hearing was Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) whose simmering and relentless attack seemed to have caught the seasoned diplomat off guard.
“You have presided over the worst foreign policy disaster of modern times,” was Senator Cruz’s opening line. “We now have two simultaneous wars waging: the worst war in Europe since World War Two, and the worst war in the Middle East in 50 years. Both I believe were caused by this administrations’ consistent weakness.”
Secret Iran-US talks on Gaza war undermined by Raisi death
Secret talks between Iran and the United States in Oman were making good progress, but have now been jeopardised by the sudden death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his foreign minister.
Brett McGurk, US President Joe Biden's senior Middle East adviser, held indirect negotiations earlier this month with Ali Bagheri Kani, Iran’s point man for negotiations with the West, according to three Iranian sources close to the talks.
The talks took place in Muscat, which hosted secret meetings between Tehran and Washington a decade ago that led to the 2015 JCPOA (joint comprehensive plan of action) nuclear agreement.
Women of Iran
War on Women and Girls: Iranian Dissidents Testify Before Canadian Parliament
Members of Canadian parliament heard testimony Tuesday from Iranian human rights advocates, dissidents, victims and an exiled artist on the brutality of the Islamic Republic, and called on Ottawa to take more action.
Human rights advocate and founder of Stop Child Execution Nazanin Afshin-Jam and actress and human rights activist Nazanin Boniadi both told the House of Commons Subcommittee on Human Rights that Iran is "waging a war on women and girls."
"Girls are beaten, dragged, screaming into police vans and raped for not wearing a hijab," said Afshin-Jam via remote video.
Inside Iran
No foul play in crash that killed president, Iran says
A preliminary report on the helicopter crash that killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Sunday has found no evidence of criminal activity, state media say.
The aircraft “caught fire after hitting an elevated area” and no traces of “bullet holes” have been detected among the wreckage, the army report says.
The helicopter had been flying on a “pre-planned route and did not leave the designated flight path”, it states.
(BBC)
Iran's Raisi buried in Mashhad as mourners pack Iranian holy city
President Ebrahim Raisi was buried in the Iranian holy city of Mashhad on Thursday as many thousands of mourners packed its streets for his funeral, four days after he died in a helicopter crash, footage broadcast by Iranian media showed.
Raisi, 63, was widely seen as a candidate to succeed 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who wields ultimate power in Iran. Mohammad Mokhber, who had been first vice president, is serving as interim president until a June election.
The burial ceremony was attended by Iranian government and military officials, as well as religious personalities.
(Rueters)
Regional Politics
A death, an illness, and an uncertain Middle East
Since march 2023, when Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore diplomatic ties, the two longtime foes have tried to put on a show of friendship. The routine has not been convincing. Then, for a moment this month, they seemed to take the unity act to another level. The Iranian president vanished, and the Saudi king fell ill. It was a reminder that both countries are on the brink of profound transition.
Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash on May 19th plunged Iran into political uncertainty. But anyone hoping it will become less belligerent in the region is likely to be disappointed. Mr Raisi was not the main architect of Iran’s foreign policy. Regardless of who replaces him as president, Iran will continue to support militias across the Middle East and to seek closer ties with Russia and China. Nor is its nuclear stand-off with the West likely to ease.
Still, his death will make ripples abroad. Mr Raisi was not alone on the helicopter: Hossein Amirabdollahian, the foreign minister, was also killed in the crash. Arab officials were surprisingly fond of him, a diplomat who spoke their language and knew the region. He had close ties with Hizbullah and other Iran-backed groups.
Iran’s Use of Proxy Warfare Likely to Persist, Experts Say
While uncertainty surrounds political succession in Iran after its president and foreign minister died in a helicopter crash, analysts say it is unlikely their deaths will alter the country’s projection of power through heavily armed allied groups in the Middle East.
Those groups — Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, multiple militias in Iraq and Hamas in the Palestinian territories — are central to Iran’s ability to wield influence far beyond its borders despite being under strict economic sanctions for decades.
Iran works with these groups through the Quds Force, a division of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The I.R.G.C. answers directly to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, not to the government run by the president. So even in a time of internal maneuvering and uncertainty after the deaths on Sunday of President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, analysts expect little change in the groups’ rhythm of attacks or overall approach.
Global Relations
Iran President Raisi was building a strategic foothold in Africa
Reactions from African leaders and governments have been pouring in after the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, whose helicopter – carrying Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and eight other officials – crashed in Iran’s mountainous northwestern region near the Azerbaijan border. Raisi was known for his determination to restore Iran’s presence and influence in Africa.
A helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, 63, his foreign minister and eight others crashed in mountains in the northwest region of Iran on Sunday, 19 May.
In a statement on Monday morning, Kenya’s President William Ruto expressed “heartfelt condolences and solidarity with the people of Iran at this challenging time”. He described Raisi as a fearless leader and a dedicated public servant with a long and distinguished career in public service, adding that the Iranian head of state was “a firm leader committed to the causes that he believed in and sought to elevate Iran’s standing on the global stage”.
Analysis
The Death of an Iranian Hard-Liner
By: Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar
The sudden death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19 marked a momentous day for the Islamic Republic. His presidency ushered in a new era for his country, characterized by increased militarization abroad and growing tumult at home. Not since the 1979 revolution had Iran’s political system faced such a fast-paced transformation. Externally, the country surprised the world with its military capabilities and its willingness to deploy them. Internally, Iran grappled with rising secularization, putting society at odds with the government. These shifts meant that the Iran that exists today is very different from the one that existed when Raisi came to power just three years ago.
Without Raisi, it may seem like Iran is headed for a period of great turbulence. Before his ascent, Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, spent 30 years in near-constant conflict with Iran’s presidents, sparring over what path the country should take at home and abroad. But Raisi adopted Khamenei’s preferred, Middle East–first approach to foreign policy, expanding Iran’s regional influence and improving relations with its neighbors, including its rival, Saudi Arabia. He made sure that Iran’s presidential bureaucracy synced up with the supreme leader’s. He deepened ties with China and Russia and vastly expanded his country’s nuclear program. Raisi was so loyal to Khamenei that he was widely viewed as his heir apparent.
Yet it is unlikely that Raisi’s death will cause much tumult in Tehran. In fact, it is unlikely to prompt much change at all. Despite popular discontent and an expanding crisis of legitimacy, Iran’s powerful ruling class remains steadfast in its commitment to Raisi and Khamenei’s strategy. Iranian elites will ensure that the presidency stays in the hands of a loyal establishment conservative. They will keep the country’s policies steady. There will still be palace intrigue, as the country gears up for a snap election and ambitious politicians launch their candidacies to succeed Raisi. But Iran’s next president will almost certainly be just like its last one, and nationwide grief at Raisi’s death will ensure that the winning candidate has a smooth transition.
What’s Next for Iran After Raisi’s Death?
By: Garrett Nada
On May 19, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and six other passengers and crew died in a helicopter crash. The aircraft went down in dense fog in a mountainous region of East Azerbaijan province in northwestern Iran. The officials were returning from the opening ceremony for a dam on the border with Azerbaijan. Less than 72 hours after Raisi’s death, the focus has turned to the political changes that come next with elections slated for June 28.
For now, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has appointed Raisi’s first vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, as interim president. Mokhber had close ties to the supreme leader and to the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) but was not viewed as a potential contender for the presidency.
USIP’s Garrett Nada looks at what this could mean for Iran’s foreign policy amid regional tumult, Raisi’s domestic and foreign policy legacy and the implications for Khamenei’s looming succession.
