Iran Digest Week of June 14- June 21
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
Iran’s reformist presidential candidate eyes improved relations with US
The sole reformist candidate in Iran’s presidential elections this month has said he wants improved relations with the US, as he accused his conservative rivals of blighting the Iranian economy by not doing enough to revive the a nuclear deal with the west that had led to the lifting of some sanctions.
Masoud Pezeshkian, who has unveiled the combative former foreign minster Javad Zarif as his foreign policy adviser, also suggested under his presidency he might also review its relations with Russia, arguing eastern powers should not think that they are Iran’s only option.
Pezeshkian, a former heart surgeon and health minister, is battling to win over millions of Iranians who believe that despite being allowed to stand in the vote, he would not be permitted by the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, to take the country on a new course in the event he won.
(The Guardian)
US-Iran Health Diplomacy: De-Escalation Through Humanitarian Action
During a recent conference in Tehran sponsored by the Iranian Critical Care Society (ICCS), the opening presentation by our group focused on health diplomacy and the important role relationships between scientists can play in today’s troubled world.
The presentation included a range of recommendations for engagement developed in cooperation between ICCS and the Oxford International Development Group (OIDG), based in Oxford, Mississippi, that this author directs.
ICCS members, led by vice president and health diplomacy project coordinator, Dr. Seyed Mohammad Reza Hashemian, are hoping to travel to other countries in the Persian Gulf region to discuss ideas for bilateral and multilateral cooperation among medical schools, NGOs and other institutions. OIDG, with input from the medical community in Iran, also has developed proposals to expedite the release of humanitarian-designated funds for the purchase and delivery of medical devices and pharmaceuticals to address patient safety, an ICCS priority.
(Stimson)
Iran Was Broke and Wanted a Deal, Trump Claims
Former US President Donald Trump says he was ready to “make a deal” with Iran on “everything” toward the end of his term, claiming that Tehran also “wanted” a deal because the country was in dire straits as a result of his tough sanctions.
“Iran was broke. They had no money. I sanctioned the countries that wanted to buy oil from Iran. And I would’ve made a fair deal with Iran. I was gonna get along with Iran,” Trump said on the All In podcast Thursday.
“The deal was simple: Iran can’t have a nuclear missile. It cannot have that nuclear capability. Other than that we talk about everything. They would’ve been very happy,” he added.
Nuclear Program
U.S. and Israel assessing new intelligence about Iran nuclear models
U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies are looking into new information about computer modeling by Iranian scientists that could be used for research and development of nuclear weapons, two U.S. officials plus one current and one former Israeli official told Axios.
Why it matters: The purpose of the modeling is unclear. Some U.S. and Israeli officials said the intelligence is a worrying signal about Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions, but other officials on both sides said it as a "blip" that doesn't represent a shift in Iran's policy and strategy towards weaponization. Iran has repeatedly denied wanting nuclear weapons.
Senior U.S. and Israeli officials will meet at the White House on Thursday for the U.S.-Israel strategic consultative group (SCG) to discuss the state of the Iranian nuclear program and other issues.
(Axios)
Economy
Iran's Energy Crisis: Power Cuts Hit Industrial Sector Hard
Iran is grappling with a severe energy deficit crisis, exacerbated by the summer heat and the government's failure to meet natural gas and electricity production targets.
Recently, Iran's Deputy Minister of Industry, Mines and Trade announced drastic measures, revealing that electricity supply to the industrial sector will be halved during the summer months.
In a letter addressed to the government, Reza Mohtashmipour highlighted significant shortages. The steel manufacturing sector, demanding 5,500 MW, will receive only 2,400 to 3,800 MW. Similarly, the cement industry, requiring 1,000 MW, will be allocated just 500 to 650 MW.
Environment
Iran's water crisis leads to alarming ground collapse
More than 800 towns and villages, including the capital Tehran and the major city of Isfahan, are at risk from land subsidence, Iranian authorities say.
The ground beneath Tehran sinks by up to 22 centimeters (around 9 inches) every year, which is seven times higher than what would be normally expected.
The reason, experts say, is the country's acute water shortage.
(DW)
Inside Iran
In Iran Election, a New Target for Conservatives: The Government
The campaign billboards adorning the streets of Iran for the coming presidential election make grand promises: economic prosperity, an end to corruption, a free press, the reversal of a brain drain and a pledge from one candidate to “save the citizens” from all the woes afflicting the country.
In their efforts to attract votes, all six candidates — five conservatives and one reformist, all selected by a committee of clerics — are unleashing blistering attacks on the status quo. In speeches, televised debates and round-table discussions, they have criticized the government’s economic, domestic and foreign policies, as well as the violent treatment of women by the morality police, and have ridiculed rosy official assessments of Iran’s economic prospects as harmful delusions.
Iran is holding a special presidential election on June 28 to choose a successor to President Ebrahim Raisi, a hard-line conservative who was killed last month in a helicopter crash. While the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has final say on all major policy decisions in Iran, the presidency sets the domestic agenda and, to a lesser extent, can influence foreign policy.
Global Relations
Canada lists Iran's Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist group
Canada has listed Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation, after years of pressure from opposition legislators and some members of the Iranian diaspora.
Announcing the decision on Wednesday, Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc called it a “significant tool in fighting global terrorism”.
The move will mean that thousands of senior Iranian government officials, including top IRGC officials, will be barred from entering Canada.
(BBC)
UN report condemns executions, hijab crackdown in Iran
A report by the United Nations secretary-general condemns the high number of executions carried out in Iran last year and the government’s violent crackdown against women and girls for defying the country’s mandatory hijab law.
U.N. Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights Nada Al-Nashif, who on Thursday presented the report at the U.N. Human Rights Council, said, “At least 834 individuals were executed in 2023, which represents a 43% increase from the previous year.”
“Especially troubling is the 84% increase in executions for drug-related offenses in 2023, the highest figure in nearly a decade,” she said.
(VOA)
Analysis
Iran election outcome could bring foreign policy shift
By: Vali Kaleji
The next president of Iran, to be chosen by the public next week, could potentially make significant adjustments to the country's foreign policy stance. Yet his leeway to do so will be constrained within Iran's political structure by the primacy of the supreme leader in fundamental foreign policy decisions.
The election is being held a year early due to the death last month of incumbent Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash that also killed Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.
During Raisi's nearly three years in office, Iran's economic and diplomatic isolation eased significantly. The country reopened ties with Saudi Arabia and improved relations with other Persian Gulf states. It won full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS bloc and signed a free trade agreement with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. And it reached a deal with the U.S. that saw five prisoners held by each side released along with $6 billion in funds that had been frozen in South Korea.
