Iran Digest Week of June 28- July 5
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
Iran’s ex-Central Bank chief calls for resolving issues with the US
Former chief of Iran’s Central Bank, Abdolnaser Hemmati, told local media that one of the first tasks for the new president should be reaching an agreement with the West to lift sanctions.
In the first 100 days, “it is important to establish a policy of understanding with the United States and the three European powers to reduce sanctions and thus lower inflationary expectations. The government's first step should be to suppress these inflationary expectations,” Hemmati, a critic of Iran’s hardliners stated.
Nuclear negotiations by the Biden administration and Britain, France and Germany, which started in April 2021 failed to forge a new agreement to revive the Obama-era JCPOA nuclear deal. As a result, Trump administration’s oil export and international banking sanctions remained in place seriously impacting Iran’s weak economy.
Nuclear Program
Nuclear tension could ease, but not end after Iran election, say analysts
Masoud Pezeshkian's victory in Iran's presidential elections has given a rare boost to efforts for scaling down years of tensions over Tehran's nuclear program, even with no indication of any upcoming breakthrough in the crisis.
Pezeshkian's defeat of ultra-conservative Saeed Jalili, a former chief nuclear negotiator whose intransigence and style made him notorious among Western diplomats, is a relief for European governments as they seek to maintain dialogue on the issue.
The incoming president was backed by former president Hassan Rouhani, who while in office led efforts to defuse the crisis.
(VOA)
A reformer wanting a nuclear deal with America wins Iran’s election
The cry for change could hardly be clearer. In the presidential election on July 5th, 16.4m Iranians voted for Masoud Pezeshkian, a reform-minded heart surgeon who wants talks with the West and women to have the right to dress as they choose. Just 13.5m Iranians voted for Saeed Jalili, a hardliner who advocates confrontation with Western “enemies”, enforcement of Iran’s conservative codes and preserving the system as it is. Even regime loyalists doubted his message. Mr Jalili attracted 8m fewer votes than did two hardliners who stood for president in 2021.
In acrimonious television debates, Mr Pezeshkian had called for negotiations with America that might slough off sanctions and rescue Iran from its “cage”. “Iran ghafas nist” (Farsi for “Iran is not in a cage”), retorted Mr Jalili, insisting the missiles Iran and its proxies have fired at Israel proved it had already broken free. Their opposing visions prompted fierce debates on the streets over whether to boycott an theocratic system or to vote to stem the tide of Talibanisation and escalation of tension with the West expected under Mr Jalili. In the end Iranians did both. They voted in large enough numbers to elect a reformer. (Mr Pezeshkian mobilised 8m more votes in the run-off than in the first round of voting.) But—with just under 50% of the electorate turning out to vote—Iranians still sent the message that they have lost confidence in the system. “Those who voted (for Mr Pezeshktian) or didn’t vote were one team driven by civil disobedience,” says Farhad Meysami, a former political prisoner, in a widely circulated social media post.
Women of Iran
Iran's new president gives hope to some women and younger voters
A relatively moderate member of the Iranian parliament, Masoud Pezeshkian, has been declared the next president of Iran after beating his hardline conservative rival by a decisive margin in Friday’s run-off presidential elections.
The 69-year-old will replace Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last month.
Dr Pezeshkian’s mostly young supporters took to the streets of the capital, Tehran, and other cities to celebrate - even before the final results were declared, singing, dancing and waving his campaign's signature green flags.
(BBC)
Economy
Iran’s Economy Keeps Declining Amid Political Uncertainty and Popular Discontent
As reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalili compete in a run-off round Friday in Iran’s presidential elections, the country’s economy fluctuates between pessimism and panic. Stock prices have already begun falling, while hard currency and gold are gaining as Iranians turn to hard assets to protect what little savings they have left.
On June 20, after a week or rising prices, the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) experienced a rapid fall in indexes and stock prices across various sectors. Investors and traders are holding their breath as Iran’s presidential elections move to a second round. TSE regulators have limited the daily index changes to five percent, but there is no such limit on gold and hard currency exchanges.
On June 30, two days after the first round of voting failed to produce a winner, the price of gold increased by 5.17 percent. Gold prices would likely have risen even further if not for the scrutiny of the gold market by Islamic Republic security agencies. Their readiness to arrest gold traders and raid their stores help to nominally stabilize the market; many traders fail to report high-price trades to avoid repercussions.
(Stimson)
Inside Iran
Reformist Candidate Wins Iran’s Presidential Election
In an election upset in Iran, the reformist candidate who advocated moderate policies at home and improved relations with the West won the presidential runoff against a hard-line rival, according to results released by the interior ministry on Saturday.
The winner, Masoud Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old cardiac surgeon, got 16.3 million votes to defeat Saeed Jalili with 13.5 million votes. It was a blow to the conservative faction in Iran’s ruling establishment and a major victory for the relatively moderate reformist camp, which had been sidelined from politics for the past few years.
After polls closed at midnight, turnout stood at about 50 percent, roughly 10 percentage points higher than in the first round, with about 30.5 million ballots cast, according to the interior ministry.
Outcry sparked over death sentence of Iranian labor activist
The issuance of a death sentence to Sharifeh Mohammadi, a labor activist imprisoned in Iran, has sparked condemnation and promises of protest.
Facing charges of armed rebellion, she has become a symbol of the Iranian government's repression of dissent.
Farhad Meysami, a civil activist, has opposed the death sentence issued to Mohammadi on Thursday and has pledged to go on a hunger strike in front of the Revolutionary Court in Rasht if the sentence is not revoked. In a statement, he declared, "If you want to execute Mohammadi, dig two graves."
Regional Politics
Turkmenistan and Iran sign deal to supply gas to Iraq. Iran will build pipeline to aid delivery
Turkmenistan and Iran on Wednesday signed a contract for the delivery of 10 billion cubic meters a year of Turkmen gas that Iran will then ship on to Iraq.
The deal was announced by Turkmenistan's foreign ministry, which did not state the monetary worth of the contract.
The ministry's statement said Iranian companies will construct a new 125-kilometer (77-mile) pipeline to Iran to expand Turkmenistan's delivery capacity. The ministry said Turkmenistan plans to increase its gas supplies to Iran to 40 billion cubic meters a year.
(ABC)
Global Relations
Europe to consider designating Iran’s IRGC as terror group
The European Union has accepted a request from Germany to consider designating Iran's Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist entity at a time when Iran-backed plots across Europe continue to be revealed.
According to Germany's Süddeutsche Zeitung, the legal department of the European Union's foreign action service has officially begun the process to possibly designate the IRGC.
It is a victory for advocacy groups after at attempt by the European Parliament to press the European Union to designate the IRGC failed last year.
Analysis
Who is Iran’s new president-elect Masoud Pezeshkian?
By: Associated Press
After the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini, Iranian lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian wrote that it was “unacceptable in the Islamic Republic to arrest a girl for her hijab and then hand over her dead body to her family.”
Days later, as nationwide protests and a bloody crackdown on all dissent took hold, he warned that those “insulting the supreme leader … will create nothing except long-lasting anger and hatred in the society.”
The stances by Pezeshkian, now Iran’s 69-year-old president-elect, highlight the dualities of being a reformist politician within Iran’s Shiite theocracy — always pushing for change but never radically challenging the system overseen by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
