Iran Digest Week of September 13- September 20
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
Harris campaign says it did not use Trump campaign materials sent from Iranian hackers
Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign said on Thursday that it did not use any materials that the FBI said Iranian hackers gathered from email accounts associated with former President Donald Trump's campaign and sent to President Joe Biden's campaign before he left the race.
Trump's campaign on Wednesday demanded more information from Harris' campaign including that it disclose the materials it received and whether it was used.
A Harris campaign official told ABC News that "the materials were not used." The campaign declined to comment on whether or not they would comply with the Trump campaign's request to disclose what they received.
(ABC)
Intelligence suggests Iran sought to ensnare Trump, Biden in hack-and-leak
Iran’s efforts to upend U.S. politics ahead of November’s presidential election by targeting the campaign of former President Donald Trump went well beyond a standard hack-and-leak operation.
According to U.S. intelligence officials, Tehran sought to ensnare the campaign of Trump’s then-opponent, incumbent U.S. President Joe Biden.
Information released late Wednesday by U.S. intelligence officials indicates Iranian cyber actors not only tried to leak stolen Trump campaign documents to media organizations but also tried to feed them to Biden campaign officials, hoping the Biden team might try to use them.
(VOA)
Women of Iran
Two years after the death of Mahsa Amini, a ‘quiet revolution’ is still under way in Iran
September 16 marks two years since a 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman died after being detained by Iran’s morality police for wearing what they called an "ill-fitting" veil, sparking one of the largest waves of protests in the history of the Islamic Republic.
In the days following Mahsa Amini’s death, tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets to express their anger, chanting, "Woman, life, freedom." These demonstrations, which lasted for several months, were violently suppressed by the Iranianauthorities. But two years later, the legacy of the protests remains tangible; tongues have loosened, and more first-hand accounts have begun to surface.
“We now know that unprecedented violence was used during the crackdown on these demonstrators. It was far worse than we thought,” said Chowra Makaremi, an anthropologist and specialist on Iran. “We only really became aware of the extent of the cruelty by reading the testimonies collected by the UN investigation.”
Health
Iran criticized over medical aid to injured Hezbollah members after pager attacks
Iranians have reacted to the treatment of several Hezbollah members whose eyes were injured in explosions in Lebanon while Iran's security forces blinded hundreds of protesters during the crackdown on 2022 protests.
Several have voiced their discontent over social media to fighters being brought to Iran and Iranian doctors sent to Lebanon to treat Hezbollah operatives in the wake of two targeted attacks this week.
One citizen, in a video sent to Iran International, commented: "The Islamic Republic blinded Iranian protesters and didn't allow them treatment, but treats Hezbollah's wounded in Iran."
Economy
Iran’s Economic Growth Slows: Challenges and Projections for the Future
In its most recent report, the Central Bank of Iranannounced that the country’s economic growth for the spring of this year stood at 3.2%, nearly half of the 5.7% growth recorded during the same period last year. This significant decline in economic performance is attributed largely to the sharp decrease in the added value of the oil sector, which fell from 16.5% last spring to 9.5% this year.
International organizations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank had previously forecasted this downturn. Both predicted a sharp reduction in Iran’s economic growth for the current year, with the IMF projecting a further decline in 2024. The IMF estimated that Iran’s economic growth last year was 4.7%, but this figure is expected to drop to 3.3% this year and 3.1% next year.
The relatively robust growth of last year was primarily driven by two factors: a surge in oil production and exports, and an increase in government spending. However, these factors did not have a direct impact on improving the welfare of the population or boosting the country’s domestic industries. Instead, they were external factors that temporarily inflated growth figures without fostering long-term economic health.
Environment
Iran’s Wetlands Facing Crisis: Environmental Mismanagement and Extreme Heat to Blame
The Fars News Agency, affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reported on Wednesday, September 18, the complete drying up of nine wetlands across Iran due to extreme heat. Citing “record-breaking air temperatures” in many parts of the country, particularly in the eastern, southeastern, and central regions, the agency claimed that these wetland losses occurred during the summer season.
According to the report, wetlands such as Anzali, Bamdej, Hamun, Jaz Murian, Tashk, Bakhtegan, Gavkhouni, Maharloo, Hoz-e Sultan, Shimbar, and Namak Lake have dried up in recent months. Forecasts suggest this trend is expected to continue into the fall.
However, the IRGC-linked media placed the blame solely on unprecedented heat and a lack of rainfall, avoiding any mention of poor water management. Despite this narrative, environmental experts argue that the drying of Iran’s wetlands is largely due to ineffective governance and a lack of comprehensive watershed management strategies.
Inside Iran
Pezeshkian's Debut Presser: Unity, Economy, Foreign Policy Shifts
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian finally held his first press conference, a month and a half after taking office. The event, which had been postponed at least three times, was attended by 300 journalists from various media outlets.
Pezeshkian adopted a more explicit tone compared to his first state television interview. At the start, he explained that the delay was intentional, aiming to coincide with the Islamic Unity Week. He also emphasized that his government needed time to take action during this period to offer clearer and more concrete explanations about its achievements.
The press conference unfolded in a different atmosphere than usual, with frequent applause from the journalists - something rarely seen at such events. The mood was friendly, and the questions posed lacked any real challenge.
Fourteen stolen Iranian artworks reportedly sold in Dubai, 16 still missing
An Iranian daily has revealed that 14 paintings stolen from Tehran’s Imam Ali Religious Arts Museum have been sold in Dubai, with no information on the whereabouts of 16 other missing works.
The museum, overseen by Tehran's municipality, is now embroiled in a scandal that raises questions about corruption and negligence at the highest levels.
Naser Amani, a member of Tehran's city council, revealed the situation on Monday, estimating that just one of the missing works alone was valued at 300 billion rials (approximately $500,000).
Regional Politics
Iran warns Israel of ‘crushing response’ after attacks on Hezbollah
Israel will face “a crushing response from the axis of resistance”, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, has told Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, according to state media.
Salami made the statement on Thursday after unprecedented attacks in the previous two days on Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies, which killed 37 people and wounded more than 2,900 when hundreds of devices were detonated almost simultaneously.
The “axis of resistance” refers to Iran-aligned armed groups in the Middle East, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis and Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces.
Analysis
The Outlook for Iran Nuclear Negotiations
By: Anonymous
The return to Iran’s government of veteran diplomats who negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal has led to some cautious optimism that Iran’s nuclear program can be dealt with through new talks. However, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is unlikely to be revived and the most likely configuration for discussions will be bilateral – between the U.S. and Iran – rather than multistate.
On August 27, 2024, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave the go-ahead to President Masoud Pezeshkian and his cabinet to “interact with the enemy [the United States] in certain situations.” He cautioned “not to place your hopes” in talks while suggesting, in a clear reference to the nuclear program that “a tactical retreat might sometimes be necessary.”
Earlier, new Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, a former deputy foreign minister and key negotiator of the JCPOA, said in an interview with a German news outlet that revival of the original deal “is not possible.” He highlighted shifts in the international landscape due to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, which have altered the security perspectives of the European Union, Russia, China and the U.S.
