Iran Digest Week of February 5 – February 12
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by Communications Associate Elizabeth Kos. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
US Republicans call for review, vote on any Iran nuclear deal
Thirty-three Republicans in the United States Senate have pledged to thwart a new Iran nuclear deal if the administration of President Joe Biden does not present its terms to Congress for approval.
The Senators argued an agreement would be of “such gravity for US national security” that it would by definition be a treaty requiring the advice and consent of two-thirds of the Senate.
Last week, a Biden administration official said the US had restored a sanctions waiver to Tehran, which allowed Russian, Chinese, and European companies to carry out non-proliferation work at Iranian nuclear sites and had been rescinded by the Trump administration in May 2020.
The official said the waiver was needed to allow for technical discussions that were key to the continuing talks.
Nuclear Accord
Iran nuclear talks restart as critical time pressure and distrust builds
Negotiations aimed at reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal restarted in Vienna this week, more than ten months after they first began and weighed down by yet more uncertainty and mutual distrust. And time is of the essence. With each passing week, Iran’s nuclear capabilities grow, making a return to a deal less and less likely.
A deal that addresses the core concerns of all sides is in sight. But if it’s not reached in the coming weeks, Iran’s ongoing nuclear advances will make it impossible for us to return to the JCPOA,” she said, referring to the agreement’s formal name, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Importantly, there is also very little appetite in Washington for escalation with Iran, and Biden is keen to reverse a major foreign policy legacy of Trump’s by bringing back the deal. Still, continued deadlock could lead the administration to reverse course and take more aggressive measures, though it has not specified what those measures may be.
(CNBC)
COVID-19
Some 50 Iranian MPs test positive for Covid-19 as Omicron rages, says lawmaker
Some 50 members of Iran's 290-seat parliament have contracted Covid19, a senior MP said on Saturday as the Omicron variant spreads unabated across the country.
Iran has seen a surge in cases after a brief respite following mass vaccinations. In recent days it has reported an average of more than 30,000 new infections a day. However, the number of cases over the previous 24 hours was 23,130 -- the Health Ministry said on Saturday.
More than 50 million people have received two doses of the Covid-19 vaccine, and more than 19 million have received three doses.
(CNN)
Economy
Oil falls on positive signals from U.S.-Iran talks
Oil prices fell on Monday as signs of progress in the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks that could lead to the removal of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil sales offset concerns about the tight supplies.
U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration on Friday restored sanctions waivers to Iran to allow international nuclear cooperation projects, as the talks on the 2015 international nuclear deal enter the final stretch.
Although the sanctions relief will have limited impacts on Iran’s struggling economy, they were perceived by the markets as a positive signal that both sides are determined to reach a deal.
Fuelling supply concerns, tensions remain high in Eastern Europe, with White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan saying on Sunday that Russia could invade Ukraine within days or weeks but might still opt for a diplomatic path.
(CNBC)
Women in Iran
Iranian husband beheads teenage wife, authorities say, shocking the country
The beheading of a 17-year-old girl, allegedly by her husband, in western Iran's Khuzestan province last week has once again raised concern over the country's laws around murder and gender-based violence.
A video began circulating showing the husband, Sajjad Heydari, walking in the provincial capital of Ahvaz while smiling and carrying his wife's severed head, IRNA reported. Local authorities have confirmed that widely shared images that purport to be Heydari are from the same incident, a source with knowledge of the statements told CNN.
The incident has prompted Iran's government to push forward a review of a draft law that aims to protect women against domestic violence, Ensieh Khazali, the vice president for Women's and Family Affairs, a cabinet-level position, said in a tweet, according to IRNA.
(CNN)
Inside Iran
Iran unveils long-range missile as Vienna nuclear talks resume
Iran unveiled a new domestically-made missile with a range of 1,450 kilometers on Wednesday, state TV reported, a day after Tehran and Washington resumed indirect talks to salvage a 2015 nuclear deal.
Iran, which has one of the biggest missile programmes in the Middle East, says its ballistic missiles have a range of up to 2,000 km (1,200 miles) and are capable of reaching its arch-foe Israel and U.S. bases in the region.
Tehran regards its missile programme as an important deterrent against the United States, Israel and other adversaries. It has rejected Western demands to halt its ballistic missile work.
(Reuters)
BBC accuses Iran of escalating harassment of Persian journalists
The BBC has filed an urgent complaint to the UN over what it says is Iran's ongoing harassment of journalists at its Persian service and their families.
It comes amid escalating security concerns, after a year in which Iran has been accused of conducting unlawful operations against journalists abroad.
BBC World Service Director Liliane Landor said staff faced asset freezes, online harassment and death threats.
The Iranian government has previously denied the allegations, and accused the BBC of spreading false information to encourage its overthrow.
The UN's secretary general and its special rapporteurs have previously raised concerns about Iran's treatment of BBC staff and warned that harassment, surveillance and death threats violate international human rights law.
(BBC NEWS)
Regional Politics
Israel participates in huge U.S. Mideast naval exercise alongside Saudi, Oman
Israel is taking part in a huge U.S.-led naval exercise in the Middle East, for the first time publicly joining Saudi Arabia and Oman, two counties it has no diplomatic relations with despite its normalization of ties with some Gulf states.
Israel normalized relations with Gulf states the UAE and Bahrain in 2020, brought together by shared worries about Iran, and first held a joint naval drill with those two countries in November.
"For the past few months Israel has been exercising not only with us but other partner nations in this region," Fifth Fleet spokesperson Tim Hawkins told reporters on Wednesday.
In its seventh year, IMX 22 began on Monday from the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and will cover the Arabian Gulf, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman, Red Sea and North Indian Ocean.
(Reuters)
Analysis
Don’t listen to Iran deal opponents’ phony complaints about ‘breakout’
By: Paul R. Pillar
The latest twist in hardcore opposition to the restoration of the nuclear limitation agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, comes in apparent response to signs that negotiators in Vienna may actually be close to an accord. That opposition, which has been mostly sounding the same set of now-familiar themes ever since the original JCPOA was first under negotiation nearly a decade ago, always has been less about the terms of a deal than about not wanting any agreement at all with Iran. The new twist is the notion that a restored JCPOA would not push Iran far enough away from a capability to build a nuclear weapon to make such a new deal worthwhile.
The underlying idea is that advances that Iran has made in its nuclear program over the past three years — since the Trump administration’s reneging on the JCPOA in 2018 released Iran from its obligations under the agreement — cannot be totally reversed. Although enriched uranium can be shipped out or blended down and centrifuges can be removed from production lines, the knowledge and experience that Iranian scientists may have gained cannot be taken away.
The safest avenue toward avoiding an Iranian nuclear weapon is for Iran never to decide to build such a weapon in the first place. Assuring that it does not so decide requires the sort of incentive structure embodied in the JCPOA — an agreement Iran showed no sign of wanting to break out of, even after the Trump administration did. Breakout times become mostly an academic exercise as long as Iran never tries to break out.
