Iran Digest Week of March 18 - March 25
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associates Tony Liu and Cynthia Markarian.. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
Iran Nuclear Deal’s Final Hurdle Is Lifting Terrorism Sanctions on Revolutionary Guards
The effort to revive the 2015 nuclear deal agreement now hinges on perhaps the most politically sensitive issue in the negotiations: whether to remove the U.S. terrorism designation for Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards, the country’s powerful security force, diplomats said.
The issue is galvanizing opposition to the nuclear deal in Washington and among Middle East allies such as Israel, where the government issued stinging public criticism of any attempt to remove the terrorism designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
“Not only has Iran’s nuclear program advanced, but their behavior in the region and beyond has gotten more aggressive, including by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said last week. “So the notion that the actions of the past administration pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal has cut down on the actions or the escalatory behavior of the [Guard] is inaccurate.”
Iran has wanted the Biden administration to lift terrorism, human-rights and other sanctions on it that aren’t related to its nuclear program. U.S. allies in the region, who are already nervous about a nuclear deal that doesn’t permanently constrain Iran’s nuclear work, fear that if Washington lifts the terror sanctions on the Guard, it will embolden Iran-backed proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
(The Wall Street Journal)
Nuclear Accord
Iran's foreign minister says nuclear deal closer 'than ever'
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said on Wednesday that the Islamic Republic and world powers are closer than ever to reviving a 2015 nuclear deal.
"If the U.S. acts pragmatically, we are ready to have foreign ministers of countries belonging to the nuclear deal's joint commission gather in Vienna to finalise the agreement," Amirabdollahian said during a press conference in Damascus alongside his Syrian counterpart Faisal Mekdad.
Following 11 months of negotiations, Iran and the United States are now saying that the ball is in the other's court to revive the accord, which would curb Tehran's nuclear programme in exchange for lifting tough sanctions on Iran's economy.
The talks were close to agreement until Russia demanded guarantees from the United States that sanctions imposed on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine would not hurt its trade with Iran.
(Reuters)
Iran leader signals support for nuke talks at critical stage
Iran's supreme leader on Monday signaled support for Tehran's nuclear negotiations to secure sanctions relief, a rare reference to the still-halted talks as world powers near a diplomatic turning point.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stressed the importance of Iranian economic self-sufficiency during a lengthy televised speech on the occasion of Nowruz, the Persian New Year.
Khamenei, whose pronouncements are considered vital as he has the final say on all state matters in Iran, has remained largely silent on the negotiations to restore Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powers. His vague but supportive comments signaled that Iranian negotiators retained political space and flexibility.
“The essence of the issue is to run the country in such a way that sanctions cannot hit the country seriously,” Khamenei said, praising the hard-line government of President Ebrahim Raisi for boosting Iran’s trade with its neighbors and shipping Iranian crude abroad despite sanctions. “There is another way for us to use oil revenues for the country’s infrastructure."
(ABC News)
Economy
Oil prices see-saw amid hopes of Iran deal, supply woes linger
Crude prices fell on Thursday as the United States and its allies discussed a possible further coordinated release of oil from storage to help calm energy markets in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Benchmark Brent fell by $1.99, or 1.6% to $119.61 a barrel.U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down $2.10, or 1.8%, at $112.82 a barrel. “With respect to the emergency stockpiles, these are ongoing discussions and all those tools are certainly on the table,” U.S. energy secretary Jennifer Granholm said at a news conference at the headquarters of the International Energy Agency in Paris.
Adding to concerns about available supply, slow progress in talks on a deal between world powers and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear work means prospects for Iranian crude returning to the market have been pushed back.
“Unless Iran is allowed back to the market quickly it is hard to see how further price increase, potentially above the recent peaks, can be avoided,” PVM oil broker Tamas Varga said.
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Wednesday the United States and its allies had made progress in Iran nuclear talks but issues remained.
(CNBC)
Women of Iran
BBC Files United Nations Complaint Against Iran Over Online Violence Towards Women Journalists
The BBC World Service has filed an “urgent appeal” to the United Nations (UN) against Iran in light of the online violence towards female journalists working at BBC News Persian.
The relentless abuse includes death and rape threats against the women and their families; attacks by Iranian state media and on Iranian website on the women’s credibility as well as defamatory stories including accusations of “sexual indecencies”; and hacking and phishing of their personal information. Material from these hacks, such as emails and photographs, are then used to accompany some of the defamatory stories.
International counsel for the BBC World Service, Caoilfhionn Gallagher QC and Jennifer Robinson, said: “Women journalists at BBC News Persian face abhorrent online violence every day simply because they are doing their job. This is a paradigm case of what UN experts call ‘gendered censorship.’ Misogynist, sexist online abuse and all threats of physical or sexual violence towards journalists are intended to force women offline and to silence women journalists. It is unacceptable and it must stop.”
The BBC’s complaint comes a week after Iran released Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a project manager at Thomson Reuters Foundation, after six years of detention. She was imprisoned in 2016 after being convicted of unspecified “national security-related” crimes. Zaghari-Ratcliffe briefly worked for the BBC World Service Trust earlier in her career and there was speculation that may have contributed to her false arrest and imprisonment.
(Variety)
Inside Iran
Sister accuses UK government of abandoning Morad Tahbaz in Iran
Morad Tahbaz, a British-Iranian environmental campaigner being held in Iran, has gone on hunger strike, according to his sister, who accused the UK government of abandoning him after two other prisoners were released.
Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and Anoosheh Ashoori flew home last week, at the same time as the UK government repaid a longstanding debt to Tehran.
But Tahbaz, 69, who holds British, US and Iranian citizenship, was only released on furlough from Tehran’s Evin prison and was not allowed to leave the country.After 48 hours, he was taken back to prison, reportedly to have an ankle bracelet fitted, but he has not been heard from since.
The British foreign ministry said in a statement that “Morad has now been moved from Evin prison to a residential location in Tehran.A Tehran court in 2020 jailed Tahbaz for 10 years on charges of spying, conspiring with Washington and damaging national security.
(Al Jazeera)
Regional Politics
Iran welcomes Syria ties with Arabs, says nuclear deal close
The foreign ministers of Iran and Syria, two allies of Russia, discussed the war in Ukraine and other developments during a meeting in Damascus on Wednesday. Syria's top diplomat said Moscow is defending its people.
Faisal Mekdad spoke to reporters in Damascus after his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amirabdollahian, held talks with President Bashar Assad, Mekdad and top security official Maj. Gen. Ali Mamlouk.
Amirabdollahian welcomed the reconciliation approach by the United Arab Emirates toward Syria. He added that Tehran is close to reaching an agreement on its nuclear program with world powers.
Iran is a strong ally of Assad and has sent thousands of Iran-backed fighters from around the region to bolster Syrian government forces against opponents in the 11-year Syrian conflict. Russia has also supported Assad militarily, turning the tide of the war in his favor. The Syria war has killed nearly half a million people and displaced half the country’s pre-war population of 23 million.
During his visit, Amirabdollahian discussed the latest developments in Iran’s negotiations to restore Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powers. He also discussed Assad’s visit to the United Arab Emirates last week, which marked his first to an Arab country since the Syria war broke out, and meetings of the constitutional committee in Geneva between the Syrian government and opposition.
(ABC News)
Iran's Revolutionary Guards tout missile prowess at Doha exhibition
Commanders of Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) drank tea, nibbled dates and displayed models of Iranian missiles at a defence show in Qatar, a Gulf Arab state that is home to the largest U.S. military base in the region.
Their presence was striking when other Sunni Muslim Gulf states and Israel are alarmed at the prospect of the United States removing its terrorist designation of the IRGC as part of efforts to revive a nuclear pact with Iran.
The Iran booth was organised by Iran's Ministry of Defence and the commanders were part of a broader Iranian delegation.
"We reject the presence of Iran at a maritime defence exhibit, considering that it’s Iran that single-handedly is threatening maritime stability throughout the Gulf region," U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a statement.
Qatar's DIMDEX exhibition drew international defence firms hoping to boost sales to wealthy Gulf states that are moving to expand the military capabilities of the energy-producing region.
(Reuters)
Iran Guards commander warns Israel of swift revenge for any soldiers killed
Iran's Revolutionary Guards warned Israel on Wednesday that it would face swift revenge attacks if it continues to target members of the elite force in the Middle East, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.
"Be aware that we will not only take part in the funeral of our martyrs, but also immediately take their revenge. This is a real and serious message. If your mischief is repeated, you will once again experience our attacks and suffer the bitter taste of our missile blows," Tasnim quoted Revolutionary Guards Commander-in-Chief Hossein Salami, addressing Israel, as saying.
The Guards claimed responsibility for a March 13 attack on what they called "Israeli strategic centres" in Erbil, capital of the autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq. A dozen missiles launched from Iran hit what the Iraqi Kurdish regional government described as "civilian residential areas".
The attack was seen as Iranian retaliation for Israel's killing of members of the Revolutionary Guards in Syria, a close ally of Iran, in an air strike on March 7.
(Reuters)
Analysis
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards don’t belong on the foreign terror list
By: Paul R. Pillar
Parties to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the multilateral accord that restricted Iran’s nuclear program, appear close to returning to full compliance with the agreement for the first time since the Trump administration reneged on the accord nearly four years ago.
The removal of what appeared for a while to be a show-stopping demand by Russia to get out of some Ukraine-related sanctions has made an agreement once again seem imminent. But now another reported last-minute hang-up concerns the removal of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the U.S. list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations.
Whether the IRGC stays on that list or not will have no material effect. There thus may be little basis for the Iranians to make delisting a fall-on-their-sword demand. But it would make even less sense for the United States to resist delisting, especially if such resistance meant a continuation of the failed “maximum pressure” policy that has seen the Iranian stockpile of enriched uranium grow to many times what it was under the JCPOA.
The main reason that being or not being on the FTO list will not have material effects is that the IRGC still would be subject to numerous other sanctions, the consequences of which go beyond any consequences of being on the FTO list. These other sanctions concern weapons proliferation, human rights abuses, and election interference as well as terrorism.
(Read More Here)
