Iran Digest Week of June 17 - June 24
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associates Samuel Howell and Cynthia Markarian.. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
US Navy fires warning flare as Iranian speedboat approaches
The incident Monday involving the patrol ship USS Sirocco comes amid tensions as Western powers and the Islamic republic seek to salvage their tattered 2015 nuclear deal.
"Three vessels from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy interacted in an unsafe and unprofessional manner as US Navy ships transited the Strait of Hormuz," said the US Navy statement.
"One of the vessels approached Sirocco head-on at a dangerously high speed and only altered course after the US patrol coastal ship issued audible warning signals to avoid collision.
"The Iranian vessel also came within 50 yards (45 metres) of the US Navy ship during the interaction, and Sirocco responded by deploying a warning flare."
(France 24)
Nuclear Accord
Iranian Nuclear Program Goes Up Another Notch
Iran has begun to employ advanced IR-6 centrifuges to enrich uranium at its underground Fordow site, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported Monday.
A confidential report seen by the Reuters news agency noted that the centrifuges were fitted with “modified sub-headers,” which allow rapid switches in enrichment levels, and that Iran had not as yet informed the agency (IAEA) what level of enrichment it planned.
The move follows a vote June 8 at the 35-nation IAEA board condemning Iran over failing to satisfy the agency over queries about uranium traces found at three sites linked to past nuclear work.
In response to the board’s resolution – passed against Chinese and Russian opposition – Iran’s acting IAEA ambassador Mohammad Reza Ghaebi said Tehran would make a “firm and proportional” response. Iran quickly informed the IAEA it was installing IR-6 centrifuges at the Natanz site and was removing some of the agency’s monitoring equipment.
(Iran International)
Nuclear talks: Iran offers concession on IRGC terror designation for sanctions relief
Tehran has dropped its condition that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) be dropped from Washington's list of terror groups in return for sanctions relief in order to conclude the stalled efforts to revive the nuclear deal, sources told Middle East Eye.
The 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was signed between Iran and the United States during the administration of Barack Obama to limit Iran's nuclear programme in return for US sanctions relief. But in 2018, then-US President Donald Trump unilaterally exited the deal and reimposed the sanctions.
After Joe Biden came to power last year, talks to revive the deal restarted, but have been stalled since March as Iran demanded the White House reverse Donald Trump's April 2019 decision to designate the IRGC as a foreign terror organisation (FTO). The US administration has so far rejected this Iranian demand, describing it as "beyond" the deal.
Now, the IRGC listing is understood to be the final remaining impediment to a negotiated return to the deal, which many say is the only path towards keeping Iran away from obtaining an atomic bomb.
(Middle East Eye)
Economy
Unrest In Iran Continues As Workers Strike Over Worsening Conditions
Workers in the industrial town of Mahmoudabad in Isfahan continued their strike for a third consecutive day as a wave of unrest across Iran over living and work conditions shows no signs of letting up.
Truck drivers in Tehran rallied in the capital on June 20, while more than 300,000 stone factory workers in the industrial town of Isfahan remained off the job despite threats from authorities.
Sources quoted officials as saying the decision to strike in Isfahan was announced last week in a speech by a union leader who was arrested by security forces afterward.
Two days later, under duress, he called for an end to the action, but was ignored, with many workers and others joining together in protest.
(Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty)
Iran’s Oil Exports Surge In June
Iran’s crude oil exports are estimated to have jumped to an average of 961,000 barrels per day (bpd) between June 1 and June 19, according to data from seaborne oil trade analytics company Petro-Logistics cited by commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
To compare, the average crude oil exports out of Iran stood at 461,000 bpd for the entire month of May, per Petro-Logistics data.
Despite the diplomatic impasse over the nuclear deal, Iran has been preparing to rejoin the global oil market. The country has boosted production, as well as exports to its main market, China. If a new deal is reached between Iran and the world powers, the flow of Iranian oil abroad could increase by between 500,000 bpd and 1 million bpd, according to analysts.
China has been the main outlet for Iranian crude oil exports since the U.S. re-imposed sanctions on the Islamic Republic’s oil industry in 2018 when then-President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the so-called Iranian nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
(Oil Price)
Inside Iran
Three detained Mossad-linked agents to be tried, Iran judiciary says
Iran will soon put on trial what it said were three Mossad-linked agents arrested in April, state news agency IRNA quoted a judiciary official as saying on Tuesday, amid simmering tensions between the Islamic Republic and arch-foe Israel.
"The three were planning to assassinate our nuclear scientists according to intelligence assessments," Mehdi Shamsabadi said, without specifying the nationality of the detainees.
IRNA reported in April the arrest of three people it said were spies linked to the Israeli intelligence agency in Iran's southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchistan.
(Reuters)
Iran Dismisses Revolutionary Guards’ Powerful Intelligence Chief
Iran has dismissed the longstanding intelligence chief of the Revolutionary Guards force, considered one of the country’s most powerful figures, as concerns mount over Israel’s covert war on Iran’s defense systems and its nuclear program.
The removal of the intelligence chief, Hossein Taeb, after 13 years in the post, was confirmed in a statement by the Guards that did not explain why he had been dismissed. But analysts agreed that his failure to stop Israel from breaching Iran’s security network was at the heart of it.
(The New York Times)
Regional Politics
Iran says 'too early' to talk of Tehran, Riyadh reopening embassies
It would be premature to speak of Iran and Saudi Arabia reopening embassies in each other's capitals, Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson said on Monday, after five rounds of talks since last year between the rivals on improving ties.
"It is too early to talk about the reopening of embassies by Tehran and Riyadh," the spokesperson, Saeed Khatibzadeh, told a televised news conference when asked whether the travel of Iranian Haj pilgrims to Saudi Arabia could signal a restoration of diplomatic relations.
A first batch of 39,635 Iranian Haj pilgrims authorised to perform their religious duty in Mecca arrived in Saudi Arabia this month.
(Reuters)
Turkey foils alleged Iran plot to kill Israelis in Istanbul
Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid thanked Turkey on Thursday for helping foil an Iranian plot to harm Israelis in Istanbul and said the effort was still under way.
Turkish authorities arrested five Iranians suspected of planning attacks on Israelis ahead of Lapid’s visit, Turkish media reports said earlier in the day.
Lapid warned Israel would not “sit idly by’ in the face of threats to its citizens from Iran.
“The lives of Israeli citizens have been saved in recent weeks thanks to security and diplomatic cooperation between Israel and Turkey. These efforts are ongoing,” Lapid said during a visit to Turkey.
(Aljazeera)
Analysis
The immutable Muqtada al-Sadr loses a battle against Iran
By: Andrew L. Peek
The June 12 decision by Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to renounce his electoral victory and collapse the government formation process is a gift to Iran. It is a blow to average Iraqis—who demonstrated in 2019 for the end of the sectarian political system and were killed for it—and a blow to the United States, which had a chance to help expunge much of the malign Iranian influence that has seeped into Iraq since the 2003 US invasion.
Sadr had won a significant seventy-three out of 329 seats in Iraq’s parliamentary elections in October 2021, outperforming all his Iraqi competitors, but especially the Iranian-backed parties and their militias. He then attempted to do something unprecedented: hold out for a majoritarian coalition and shut those same Shia parties out of government entirely, rather than divide up the spoils.
If Sadr cut Iran-aligned parties out of the Iraqi government, including Iraq’s internal policy forces, it would have been a major blow to Iran’s growing regional influence in the Middle East. Iran values a pliable Iraq more than anything else: the prospect of an unfriendly Iraqi government—or even a nationalistic Iraqi government—would have reoriented Tehran’s political and security efforts in the region. Some of the funds and the attention of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which flows to Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and even the Gaza Strip, would then have to be redirected in an epic effort to negotiate a new relationship with Baghdad.
(Read More Here)
