Iran Digest Week of May 19- May 26
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
U.S. Navy Steps Up Efforts to Curb Iran’s Ship Seizures in Strait of Hormuz
U.S. Navy warships stationed in the Persian Gulf region have increased their patrols through the Strait of Hormuz, the busy merchant ship passageway, in response to recent moves by Iran to seize two oil tankers, the latest sign of rising tensions between Iran and the United States.
“Iran’s actions are unacceptable,” Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, the commander of U.S. naval forces in the region, said in an interview on Monday at the Navy base here in Bahrain. He was speaking several days after he rode a Navy guided-missile destroyer through the strait of Hormuz, along with leaders from the French and British navies, in an effort to send a unified message to Iran.
Iran has “harassed, attacked or interfered” with 15 internationally flagged merchant ships since 2021, Pentagon and White House officials said this month, as they announced the move to increase patrols by U.S. Navy ships, drones and planes, as well as those of United States allies in the region.
Women of Iran
Iran's Hard-Liners Blast Tougher Proposed Hijab Legislation -- As Too Lenient
The authorities in Iran have drafted a new bill that would impose stiffer penalties against women who violate the Islamic dress code, including fines, imprisonment, and even the deprivation of rights.
But hard-liners have blasted the “hijab and chastity bill” as too lenient, saying the proposed legislation will not deter women from flouting the mandatory hijab, or Islamic head scarf.
The move comes as the authorities intensify efforts to enforce the hijab as more women fail to comply with the law. Women have been emboldened by the monthslong antiestablishment protests that erupted in September following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini soon after she was arrested by Iran’s morality police for allegedly improperly wearing the head scarf.
Health
Iran Considered Importing Radioactive Chickens Despite Health Risk
Iran intended to import radiation-contaminated chickens from Belarus despite the risk to the public, an official document reveals.
The disclosure comes in a "very confidential" letter from the Ministry of Agriculture published on Friday by Nariman Gharib, an internet researcher.
The document was addressed to Peyman Pak, Deputy Agriculture Minister, and was signed by Mohammad Ali Nasiri, Advisor to the Minister and Head of the Security of the Agriculture Ministry on May 10.
Economy
Indonesia, Iran sign preferential trade agreement
The leaders of Indonesia and Iran on Tuesday signed a preferential trade agreement to expand economic relations during an official visit by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo, speaking after a signing ceremony that was streamed online by his cabinet secretariat, hoped the agreement "would increase trade between Indonesia and Iran" but did not provide details.
Raisi's visit comes as ties between Iran and the West become increasingly strained following Iranian security forces' violent crackdown on protests against the country's clerical elite after the death of a Kurdish woman in morality police custody last year.
(Reuters)
Inside Iran
What to expect after change of Iran’s top security official?
Iran has appointed a new top security official for the first time in nearly a decade, a move analysts say could affect how it approaches its main foreign policy files and reflects the rising influence of conservative voices in the country’s establishment.
Ali Akbar Ahmadian, a senior commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), on Monday, replaced Ali Shamkhani as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC).
Ahmadian was also appointed as one of the two representatives of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the SNSC, which plays a key role in shaping Iran’s foreign and national security policies. The other direct representative is Saeed Jalili, the SNSC secretary between 2007 and 2013 who has traditionally advocated for a tougher stance against the West and is an opponent of the country’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.
Iran unveils latest version of ballistic missile amid wider tensions over nuclear program
Iran unveiled on Thursday what it called the latest iteration of its liquid-fueled Khorramshahr ballistic missile amid wider tensions with the West over its nuclear program.
Authorities showed off the Khorramshahr-4 to journalists at an event in Tehran, with the missile on a truck-mounted launcher.
Defense Minister Gen. Mohammad Reza Ashtiani said the missile could be prepared for launch in a short period.
(AP News)
Global Relations
US announces criminal cases involving flow of technology, information to Russia, China and Iran
The Justice Department announced a series of criminal cases Tuesday tracing the illegal flow of sensitive technology, including Apple’s software code for self-driving cars and materials used for missiles, to foreign adversaries like Russia, China and Iran.
Some of the alleged trade secret theft highlighted by the department dates back several years, but U.S. officials are drawing attention to the collection of cases now to highlight a task force created in February to disrupt the transfer of goods to foreign countries.
“We are committed to doing all we can to prevent these advanced tools from falling into the hands of adversaries who wield them in a way that threatens not only our nation’s security but democratic values everywhere,” said Assistant Attorney General Matthew Olsen, who heads the Justice Department’s national security division.
(AP News)
Regional Politics
Iran exchanges heavy gunfire with Taliban on Afghan border, escalating tensions over water rights
The Taliban and Iran exchanged heavy gunfire Saturday on the Islamic Republic's border with Afghanistan, killing and wounding troops while sharply escalating rising tensions between the two countries amid a dispute over water rights.
Iran's state-run IRNA news agency quoted the country's deputy police chief, Gen. Qassem Rezaei, accusing the Taliban of opening fire first Saturday morning on the border of Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province and the Afghan province of Nimroz. IRNA said Iran inflicted “heavy casualties and serious damage."
From the Taliban's view, Afghan Interior Ministry spokesman Abdul Nafi Takor accused Iran of shooting first. Takor said the firefight killed two people, one from each country, and wounded others. He described the situation as now being under control.
(ABC News)
Global Relations
Iran says Ukraine president drone criticism a bid to secure more Western arms
Tehran on Saturday accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of anti-Iranian propaganda in his call for Iran to halt the supply of drones to Russia, saying his comments were designed to attract more arms and financial aid from the West.
Zelenskiy in a video address on Wednesday called on Iranians to stop their slide into "the dark side of history" by supplying Moscow with drones.
Iran initially denied supplying Shahed drones to Russia but later said it had provided a small number before the conflict began. Ukraine says the drones have played a major role in Russia's attacks on cities and infrastructure.
(Reuters)
Olivier Vandecasteele: Belgian aid worker freed in exchange for Iranian diplomat
Belgium and Iran have carried out a prisoner swap involving Belgian aid worker Olivier Vandecasteele and Iranian diplomat Assadollah Assadi.
The Belgian prime minister announced that Mr Vandecasteele was currently flying home "after 455 days in prison in Tehran in unbearable conditions".
Mr Assadi, who Iran's foreign minister said was "illegally detained" for two years, has arrived in Tehran.
(BBC)
Analysis
Iran’s Coming Succession Crisis
By: Ali Reza Eshraghi
For most of the last nine months, outside analysts have looked to Iran’s protests for signs that the country might experience political change. These demonstrators, the vast majority of them young, certainly rocked the country’s elite with their cries of “Woman, life, freedom!” and their demands for democracy and a more open society. For a time, the protests were so large that outside analysts wondered if the Islamic Republic might simply collapse.
Alas, it was not to be. Tehran resorted to overwhelming force to quash the demonstrations, arresting thousands of protesters. It killed hundreds more, including via gruesome public executions. Today, embers of public discontent in Iran still smolder. But by and large, the demonstrations have subsided. They do not pose an imminent threat to the regime.
But the Iranian elite is not resting easy, if for a very different reason. Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, is 84 years old and has a history of health problems. According to reporting by /The New York Times/, Khamenei was seriously ill last September. Traveling to a shrine in 2022, he told his entourage that it might be his last visit, given his age. He was treated for prostate cancer in 2014. Khamenei may be healthy now, but he will not live forever, and Iranian elites are worried about what will happen once he goes.
