Iran Digest Week of August 4- August 11
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US- Iran Relations
U.S. Reaches Deal With Iran to Free Americans for Jailed Iranians and Funds
The United States and Iran have reached an agreement to win the freedom of five imprisoned Americans in exchange for several jailed Iranians and eventual access to about $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue, according to several people familiar with the deal.
As a first step in the agreement, which comes after more than two years of quiet negotiations, Iran has released five Iranian American dual citizens into house arrest, according to officials at the State Department and the National Security Council.
“This is just the beginning of a process that I hope and expect will lead to their return home to the United States,” Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said on Thursday. “There’s more work to be done to actually bring them home. My belief is that this is the beginning of the end of their nightmare.”
Iran says it has technology to build supersonic missiles amid US tensions
Iran has obtained supersonic cruise missile technology, state media have said amid rising tensions with the United States over military deployments in the region.
The missiles are now undergoing tests and “will mark the beginning of a new chapter in the defence power of our country”, the state-linked Tasnim news website reported on Wednesday.
Tasnim said the new missiles could “significantly accelerate the Islamic Republic of Iran’s response time in case of any combat, and take away attacking forces’ opportunity for reaction”.
Thousands of Marines and sailors deploy to Middle East to deter Iran from seizing ships
More than 3,000 Marines and sailors arrived in the Middle East on Sunday in a deployment meant to deter Iran from seizing and harassing merchant ships near the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. Naval Forces Central Command.
They came aboard the dock landing ship USS Carter Hall and amphibious assault ship USS Bataan, which together can carry dozens of aircraft, including Ospreys and Harrier jets, plus amphibious landing craft and tactical vehicles.
These forces belong to the Bataan Amphibious Ready Group and 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU). The North Carolina-based MEU "is capable of conducting amphibious missions, crisis response and limited contingency operations to include enabling the introduction of follow-on forces and designated special operations," according to a release from Naval Forces Central Command.
(ABC News)
Nuclear Accord
Prisoner Deal Could Smooth Effort to Contain Iran’s Nuclear Program
The announcement of a prisoner exchange deal between the United States and Iran could increase the prospects for further diplomatic cooperation, including the Biden administration’s longstanding goal of containing Iran’s nuclear program, according to officials and analysts.
While multiple flash points and deep-seated hostilities exist between Washington and Tehran, including Iranian threats to shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf and Iran’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, the success of a painstakingly negotiated prisoner agreement removes a severe problem from a relationship that is never far from military confrontation.
Under the deal announced on Thursday, Iran will release five Iranian Americans from custody in return for the freeing of five Iranians jailed in the United States, along with the unfreezing of some $6 billion in Iranian assets for humanitarian purposes under strict monitoring.
Women of Iran
The Protests Inside Iran’s Girls’ Schools
One morning this past winter, the students at a girls’ high school in Tehran were told that education officials would arrive that week to inspect their classrooms and check compliance with the school’s dress code: specifically, the wearing of the maghnaeh, a hooded veil that became a requirement for schoolgirls in the years after the Iranian Revolution. During lunch, a group of students gathered in the schoolyard. A thirteen-year-old in the seventh grade, whom I’ll call Nina, pressed in to hear what was being said. At the time, mass protests against the government were raging across the country; refusing to wear the veil had become a symbol of the movement. An older girl told the others that it was time for them to join together and make a stand.
The inspectors arrived the next morning. The teachers asked six girls from each grade to assemble in the schoolyard. Nina was not among them, but she knew the plan; she sat at her desk, doodling, her heart pounding with excitement. Outside, the winter sunlight cast shadows on the school’s weathered brick walls. One of the girls raised her arm, a cue arranged in a WhatsApp group the night before, and then she and the others pulled off their head scarves and tossed them on the ground. For a moment, no one said anything. Then the girls were told to go back to their classrooms. Nina’s teacher looked up in surprise as her students returned, bareheaded and flushed, but said nothing. The next day, nearly every girl in school showed up without a head scarf.
(The New Yorker)
Economy
Iran Expects 250,000 BPD Surge In Oil Production
The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has announced plans to boost its oil production by an additional 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) by the end of the summer.
According to a report by the semi-official Tasnim news agency, this move is expected to elevate Iran's total daily oil production to 3.5 million bpd. NIOC Managing Director Mohsen Khojasteh-Mehr was quoted by Tasnim as stating, "Iran's oil production will reach 3.5 million bpd at the end of summer."
The backdrop of this production surge lies in the aftermath of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement, which saw the lifting of international sanctions on Iran and a subsequent increase in revenues. During this period, Iran's oil revenues temporarily soared to $66 billion in 2017. However, this upward trajectory was disrupted after the United States withdrew from the JCPOA in May 2018, which led to renewed sanctions that intensified a year later. As a result, Iran's oil exports faced a significant decline, falling to between $15 - $20 billion by 2020. The tide began to turn towards the close of that year after the election of US President Joe Biden, who expressed intentions to reinstate the JCPOA. China, in response, embarked on a trajectory of heightened oil imports from Iran.
Environment
Hot-tub-like Persian Gulf fuels 158-degree heat index in Iran
Fueled by water temperatures in the upper 90s (upper 30s Celsius), the Persian Gulf region is enduring a brutal combination of heat and humidity that is making it feel intolerable.
In coastal Iran on Tuesday, the heat index leaped as high as 158 degrees (70 Celsius), a level so extreme that it can test the ability of humans to survive outside for more than a few hours.
Heat indexes have regularly surpassed 140 degrees (60 Celsius) in the region in recent weeks, while nights have offered little relief. In populous cities such as Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait City, heat indexes have only fallen to 100 to 120 degrees (37.8 to 48.9 Celsius) after dark.
Inside Iran
Iran opens registration for candidates in next year’s parliament election, the first since protests
Iran on Monday began registering candidates for parliamentary elections in March, which will be the first since nationwide protests rocked the country last year.
Iran has held regular presidential and parliamentary elections since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. But a clerical body vets candidates — disqualifying any seen as disloyal to the Islamic Republic — and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the final say on all major policies.
Iran saw months of nationwide protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who was being held by the morality police for allegedly violating the country’s strict dress code. The protests escalated into calls for the overthrow of the ruling clerics, marking one of the biggest challenges to their four-decade rule.
(AP News)
Regional Politics
Saudi embassy resumes operations in Iran after seven years, state media reports
Shiite-dominated Iran and Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia agreed to resume diplomatic relations and reopen their respective embassies following a China-brokered deal announced in March.
The long-time regional rivals severed ties in 2016 after Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran were attacked during protests over Riyadh’s execution of Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr.
“The embassy of Saudi Arabia in the Islamic Republic of Iran has officially commenced its activities” and has been operating since Sunday, the official news agency IRNA said, quoting an “informed source” at Iran’s foreign ministry.
Analysis
Corruption reigns supreme in Iran—and it’s getting worse
By: Nadereh Chamlou
Corruption has been a long-standing challenge in Iran. Iranians have generally blamed foreign powers as the source of corruption in their society. During the nineteenth and early twentieth-century Qajar period, they saw corruption as a byproduct of the Great Game rivalry between the British and Russians to exact favors from the royal court, famously described in Morgan Shuster’s Strangling of Persia. Russophiles and Anglophiles in high places are said to have competed to advance the interest of their patrons and were rewarded for their service. Thereafter and until the 1979 revolution, the culprits became the United States and capitalist imperialism.
Putting an end to foreign interests—as reflected in the slogan of esteghlal or “independence”—and creating a moral society were advocated as the primary motivations of the 1979 revolution. However, despite the dwindling foreign presence in the nascent Islamic Republic post-1979, which preached a more ethically centered society, corruption has reached new heights and has been ubiquitous from the first days of the regime. The ever-increasing amounts of money and elaborate schemes that routinely involve the closest regime insiders dwarf any pre-1979 reports of corruption.
Corruption is a complex issue that exists in various forms and degrees in any society. It normally refers to the abuse of power for personal gains and the diversion of public resources for private use. As it is done behind closed doors, it is difficult to observe as it happens. Transparency International has developed the Corruption Perception Index (CPI), a widely used measure that is based on how experts and the private sector perceive corruption in the public sector. It draws on data collected by leading organizations through a range of regular surveys and assessments of different sectors of society, including politics, the economy, and the judiciary.
