Iran Digest Week of November 3- November 10
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US- Iran Relations
U.S. Strikes Iranian-Linked Targets in Syria
For the second time in nearly two weeks, the United States carried out airstrikes against a facility used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its proxies in eastern Syria early Thursday, ratcheting up retaliation for a steady stream of rocket and drone attacks against American forces in Iraq and Syria.
The strikes by two Air Force F-15E jets against a weapons warehouse in Deir al Zour Province, Syria, came after U.S. airstrikes on Oct. 27 against similar targets in eastern Syria failed to deter Iran or its proxies in Syria and Iraq, which the Biden administration has blamed for the attacks.
Not only have the attacks continued — there have been at least 22 more since the American retaliatory strikes last month — but Pentagon officials said they have become more dangerous. Iran-backed militias have packed even larger loads of explosives — more than 80 pounds — onto drones launched at American bases, U.S. officials said.
Blinken Warns Iran Against Widening the Conflict Between Israel and Hamas
If Iran had any doubts about American resolve in the Middle East, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, with an assist from the Pentagon, spent the weekend reinforcing the notion that the United States was not going anywhere.
During a quick trip to the region, Mr. Blinken repeatedly warned Iran against using its proxies to widen the conflict between Israel and Hamas, while in an unusual move the U.S. Central Command, which oversees American forces in the region, on Sunday announced that a nuclear-powered submarine was traveling through the region.
The submarine added to the already considerable American firepower steaming through the waters around the Middle East, and Central Command, as if flaunting the vessel’s deployment, went so far as to post on X a photo of it in the region.
Nuclear Accord
The Gaza war probably won’t change Iran’s nuclear strategy. It’ll make it difficult to reach a long-term agreement, though.
Since the outbreak of the Gaza war, which followed the vicious attack by Hamas against Israeli military outposts and civilian villages near the Gaza Strip on October 7, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s position regarding the terrorist attack has become apparent.
Iran, which views Hamas as a Palestinian proxy and supports it militarily and economically, is working to achieve two primary goals. First, for the international community to reach a ceasefire that preserves Hamas’s rule in the Gaza Strip and, thus, prevents Israel from achieving its goal in the war: eliminating Hamas’s military and political capabilities. Second, to “encourage” its proxies (led by Lebanese Hezbollah) to attack Israel just below a threshold of escalation to stop Israeli military efforts and prevent it from eradicating Hamas.
Iran is currently refraining from attacking the United States—with the exception of its militias attacking US forces in Iraq and Syria—to avoid an escalation, and has been careful not to be directly involved and threatens to respond only if attacked. With that in mind, one of the main questions is whether and how Israel’s conflict in Gaza will impact Tehran’s nuclear strategy.
Women of Iran
Iran: No headscarf, no job for protesting actresses
In late October, Iran's Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance published a list of actresses barred from their profession for appearing in public without a headscarf. Culture and Islamic Guidance Minister Mohammad Mehdi Esmaili said it was not possible to work with those who did not observe the mandatory hijab law.
For now, the list contains some 20 names, including world-famous artists like Taraneh Alidoosti. Now 39, she starred in the internationally acclaimed drama "The Salesman" in 2016. The film won director Asghar Farhadi an Oscar for Best Foreign Language Film in 2017.
Alidoosti used to wear a headscarf in public even when she was abroad. But that changed in November 2022 as Iran was rocked by protests following the death of Jina Mahsa Amini. The 22-year-old was arrested by the so-called morality police for violating the country's Islamic dress code and later died in police custody.
Unemployment Rate Among Iranian Women Double That Of Men
Iran's leading economic daily, Donyaye Eqtesad, has revealed a huge gender gap in the Iranian labor market with unemployment among women double that of men.
The report not only points out the glaring gender disparity but also highlights the absence of a clear policy to harness the economic potential of women in Iran.
Despite women's significant contributions to the nation's economy, the report suggests that their abilities are not fully utilized. It emphasizes that reducing women's unemployment rates and increasing their workforce participation could have a positive impact on reducing poverty at the household level.
Economy
Separating propaganda from reality in Iran’s economy
Officially, all is well in the Middle Eastern nation of 88 million people. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is touting recent economic indicators as bright: oil brought in $54 billion in 2022 while overall exports hit $73 billion that year. Iran joined the nine-member Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which also includes four Central Asian countries, China, India, Pakistan and Russia. Tehran has also been invited to join the enlarged BRICS group in 2024.
Joining the select club of emerging economies is not only a finger in the eye of the West, but it also shows Iranian diplomatic skill in combating economic isolation and promoting its development. After many lean years, the World Bank believes the country has “started to recover.” Iranian households have never put so much petrol in their cars to enjoy mobility. Direct investment in the construction sector is meeting the demand of the Iranian middle class for new housing on the outskirts of major cities.
Although consumerism is the antithesis of the regime’s values, shopping malls are packed. A consumer society is blatantly on display, from booming computer shops to garments dominated by Chinese imports. Iranians are making their demands known. In a move that would have been unthinkable 20 years ago, they are banding together in associations. They demand regular rice supplies to local supermarkets and an end to sudden and unexplained price rises for everyday items such as cooking oil and soap.
Environment
Climate Change Is Causing Severe Drought in a Volatile Mideast Zone, Study Finds
Human-made climate change is driving a yearslong extreme drought in Iran, Iraq and Syria, an area that encompasses a region known as the Fertile Crescent and a cradle of civilization, scientists said on Wednesday.
The scientists stressed that years of conflict and political instability combined with the challenges of rapid urbanization in the region have limited the ability of local communities to respond to the drought, transforming it into a humanitarian crisis.
In the last three years, the drought, the second worst on record, has shriveled wheat crops and led to tensions between neighboring countries and communities over access to dwindling water supplies. It has also displaced tens of thousands of people, and helped push millions into hunger.
Regional Politics
Iran-backed Yemeni rebels shoot down US drone
Yemen's Houthi rebels have shot down a US military drone, US officials and the Iran-aligned Houthi movement have said.
A US official said an MQ9 drone was shot down off the Yemeni coast by Houthi forces.
This was confirmed by a Houthi military spokesman.
(BBC)
Global Relations
Pakistan, Turkey, Iran leaders visit Central Asia in diplomatic push
Leaders of Russia, Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan are all making stops in Central Asia as global powers seek to expand their influence in the traditionally Russia-dominated region.
Russian President Vladimir Putin touched down in Kazakhstan’s capital Astana on Thursday morning for talks with his counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
The trip comes just a week after French President Emmanuel Macron also paid a visit there, hoping to “accelerate” economic cooperation.
Analysis
The Gaza war raises questions about the future of Iran’s Resistance Axis
By: Raz Zimmt
After meeting with Lebanese Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said in a live broadcast to state television on October 16, “If we don’t defend Gaza today, we must defend our own cities.” He added, “Mr. Nasrallah also said that if we don’t take immediate action, we will have to fight with the Zionist forces in Beirut tomorrow.”
Amir-Abdollahian’s statement could serve as a reminder of how senior Iranian officials publicly justified their country’s involvement in the Syrian civil war after the emergence of the Islamic State of Iraq and el-Sham (ISIS). At a 2015 meeting with families of Iranian soldiers who died fighting in Syria and Iraq, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reportedly said, “They went to fight the enemy, and if they did not fight, this enemy would be inside the country… If they were not stopped, we would have to fight them in Kermanshah and Hamedan,” referring to provinces in western Iran.
For years, Iran has considered itself to be located in a very problematic environment, where it is surrounded by failed or weak states and faces a foreign presence that could pose a threat to its national security. Historical experience has contributed to Iran’s security considerations. The most recent historical trauma embedded in the Iranian national memory is its bloody eight-year war with Iraq (1980-1988).
