Iran Digest Week of February 2- February 9
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US- Iran Relations
US drone strike kills Iran-backed militia leader in Baghdad
A senior commander of an Iran-backed militia has been killed in a US drone strike in Baghdad.
A leader of Kataib Hezbollah and two of his guards were in a vehicle when it was targeted in the east of the Iraqi capital. All three of them died.
The Pentagon said the commander was responsible for directing attacks on American forces in the region.
(BBC)
Iran goes public with stark warning over suspected spy ship as U.S. refuses to rule out more strikes
After a weekend of U.S. strikes against its proxies in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, Iran has issued a strongly worded warning not to target a ship that U.S. officials and analysts suspect of providing real-time intelligence for attacks on other vessels in the Red Sea and serving as a forward operating base for its commandos.
In a slickly produced video published on the Iranian army’s Telegram channel Sunday, a narrator says in English that “those engaging in terrorist activities against the MV Behshad or similar vessels, jeopardize international maritime routes, security and assume global responsibility for potential future international risks.”
Describing the Behshad as a “floating armory,” the narrator says it is involved in missions to “counteract piracy in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden,” although Iran is not publicly known to have taken part in any recent anti-piracy campaigns in the region.
(NBC)
Nuclear Accord
Iran Says Construction Started on New Nuclear Reactor
Iran said Monday it had started building a new nuclear research reactor in Isfahan, days after it announced it was constructing a nuclear power plant complex in the south.
"Today, the process of pouring concrete for the foundation of the reactor started at the Isfahan site," said Mohammad Eslami, head of Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, according to state media IRNA.
The Isfahan nuclear research center in central Iran is already home to three reactors. The new 10-megawatt research reactor is being constructed to create a powerful neutron source, IRNA said.
(VOA)
Economy
Iran's Food Prices Rising Ahead Of Ramadan And Nowruz
The rise in food prices in Iran have been accelerating in recent weeks with two big factors driving food price inflation higher, Ramadan and Nowruz, set to begin in March.
This year Ramadan starts on March 10 and the two-week holidays of Nowruz, which is the start of the Iranian New Year on March 20, lead to a significant increase in food prices, where most people celebrate both with numerous parties and religious events with food as the main glue of the gatherings. Studies have proven that the Muslim fasting month has a significant effect on the inflation of food prices in other countries where the Ramadan is observed, such as Turkey.
The anticipated increase in prices prompts the Islamic Republic to increase its hackneyed measures aimed at price control, including threats to shut down businesses or punitive measures for wholesale middlemen or retailers who do not comply with state-regulated rates. Other measures include supplying subsidized food items, distributing basic goods through state-owned chain stores, and banning exports.
Economic Instability in Iran: Impact of Currency Fluctuations
Mehrad Ebad, a member of the Iranian Chamber of Commerce delegation, expressed concerns in an interview with ILNA news agency about the continuous surge in the price of currency in the Iranian market, resulting in a devaluation of the national currency. He remarked, “Nowhere else does a national currency depreciate by 20 percent overnight.”
Economic stability is paramount for a healthy and progressive economy, enabling investments without barriers or losses. Unfortunately, such stability remains elusive in Iran, deterring both domestic and foreign investors.
State media frequently highlight the government and Central Bank’s disregard for the free market currency rate. Urgent calls are made for a unified currency rate and its acceptance in the free market.
Inside Iran
Iran Announces $20bn High-Speed Train Project
Iran has announced a $20-billion high-speed train network to be funded through the National Development Fund and oil barter agreements amid the country's worst ever economic crisis.
The announcement comes on the back of an admission from Hassan Aboutorabi-Fard, the Interim Friday Prayer Imam of Tehran, who revealed last month that the government had yet to return $100 billion it had withdrawn from Iran’s National Development Fund (NDF). The withdrawal represents two-thirds of Iran’s aggregate reserve fund, which was initially estimated to be as high as $150 billion.
The ambitious plans for the sanctions-hit nation see the line stretch from Esfahan (Isfahan) to Tehran and then to Mashhad in the northeast. Mohsen Mansouri, the executive deputy of the president said, "The implementation of the project requires substantial resources, and the estimated figure is around $20 billion; however, once the studies are completed, the exact figure can be stated. This figure presents a mega-project to us, and we cannot use public resources to fund it."
Calls To Boycott Iran's Football Team Serving Political Ends
Iran's football team, tightly controlled by the government, recently secured a spot in the semi-final round of the Asian Nations Cup with a 2-1 victory over the Japanese team.
While this achievement should have brought joy to Iranians, it has, unfortunately, led to more division and discontent among the people. Many are deeply frustrated that the players appear to be promoting the regime's propaganda and using their social media platforms to also promote the upcoming fraudulent elections and offer their support to entities like the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Council (IRGC) or the IRI leader.
This situation highlights the growing tension and discontent within the country and emphasizes the need for Iranians to express their grievances through acts of civil disobedience, such as boycotting the team, to send a powerful message to the regime.
Regional Politics
Despite U.S. airstrikes, Iran continues to arm its proxies
Despite large-scale U.S. airstrikes against Iranian-backed militants across the Middle East, Iran is continuing to provide weapons and intelligence to its proxies, according to three U.S. officials, a Middle Eastern official and a congressional aide with knowledge of the matter.
Iran’s flow of arms and intelligence to its surrogates across the Middle East, who recently conducted a drone strike in Jordan that killed three American service members and wounded dozens of others, persists even as the Biden administration contends that Tehran does not want a wider war in the region, the sources said.
The assistance from Iran has included intelligence for Houthi forces in Yemen that helps them more precisely attack sites where U.S. forces are stationed in the region, as well as target commercial ships in the Red Sea, according to the U.S. officials.
(NBC)
Iraq Hosts Both U.S. and Iranian-Backed Forces. It’s Getting Tense.
For years, Iraq has managed to pull off an unlikely balancing act, allowing armed forces tied to both the United States and Iran, an American nemesis, to operate on its soil.
Now things are getting shaky.
When Washington, Tehran and Baghdad all wanted the same thing — the defeat of the Islamic State terrorist group — the relationships were fairly tenable, but in recent months, as the war in the Gaza Strip sends ripples across the region, American and Iranian-backed forces have clashed repeatedly in Iraq and Syria. A U.S. strike on one of those militias last week killed 16 Iraqis, and Iraq is saying it has had enough.
“Our land and sovereign authority is not the right place for rival forces to send messages and show their strength.” the office of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said in a statement on Sunday.
Analysis
The road to war with Iran is paved with good intentions and serious miscalculations
By: Douglas London
An airstrike likely carried out by Israel kills five Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers in Damascus on Jan. 20, and Tehran retaliates through Iraqi proxies with missiles against al-Asad Airbase in Iraq. While most of the missiles were intercepted, some evaded air defenses and hit the base, causing traumatic brain injuries to at least three service members, according to US Central Command (CENTCOM). After what’s now some 160 attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria since Oct. 17, it was only a matter of time before one overcame American defenses. And it was that latest attack targeting the housing complex on a US military outpost in northeastern Jordan that killed 3 US service members and wounded some 40 more on Jan. 28. Meanwhile, Biden administration officials’ messaging in advance of what they claim to be a fitting response includes such recent headlines as “US intelligence officials estimate Tehran does not have full control of its proxy groups,” intimating another free pass for Iran.
Forty-five years after Iran’s February 1979 revolution and 71 since the US government overthrew Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh, American officials continue to struggle to understand this nation of almost 90 million. On the other hand, Iran’s target choice after the most recent attack against IRGC personnel in Syria suggests that Tehran better interprets red lines than we do.
Iran is prepared for warfare, just not a war that might bring down the regime. Iran’s leaders realize how a direct retaliation against Israel might provoke just such a severe response, whereas they expect little of consequence from another strike against US targets. We can expect that Iran will continue to push the envelope and won’t stop regardless of how the war in Gaza is resolved.
