By Research Associate Connor Bulgrin

America’s tense relationship with Iran has provided an opportunity for several presidential administrations to earn their foreign policy bona fides. While most presidents since the Iranian Revolution have used America’s hostile relationship with Iran to prove their toughness and unwillingness to negotiate with “state sponsors of terror,” President Obama’s entry into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) provided an opportunity for diplomacy that had not existed since the Clinton administration. In the last four years, however, the possibilities for diplomacy have been waning. Increasing bellicosity from both the United States and the Islamic Republic has provided an inhospitable environment for negotiations. In this analysis, we examine President Biden’s likely policy toward Iran and whether he will return to America’s historic policy of “toughness” or restore the diplomatic overtures of the Obama era by reentry into the JCPOA.