Iran Digest Week of April 5- April 12
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US- Iran Relations
Iran wants to hit Israel while avoiding retaliation from Washington, US assesses
Iran is calibrating its plans for a major retaliatory strike against Israel to send a message — but not spark a regional war that compels Washington to respond, the U.S. assesses.
Biden administration officials judge that Iran is planning a larger-than-usual aerial attack on Israel in the coming days, one that will likely feature a mix of missiles and drone strikes, said two U.S. officials who were granted anonymity to detail sensitive discussions.
Neither official said they were fully confident Iran will succeed in striking Israel in a way that doesn’t prompt the U.S. to respond militarily, as any attack increases the risk of a greater conflagration in the Middle East. But Iran doesn’t seek to expand the regional crisis further, the Biden administration has long determined, which the officials said may be weighing on Tehran’s planning.
(Politico)
Women of Iran
Iranian MP Warns Travel Ban Considered For Hijab Defiance
Iranian MP Mehdi Bagheri has warned that a travel ban is being considered as one of the penalties for defying compulsory hijab as crackdowns on the Islamic dress code continue.
In an interview with Khabar Online, Bagheri warned, "A person who does not respect the law, does not accept the law, and in a way rebels against it, will be deprived of services provided in the country, including foreign travel."
Travel bans have already been imposed on the likes of celebrities for voicing dissent against the government since the 2022 Women, Life, Freedom uprising, but the punishment for hijab defiance comes amidst deepening punishments for women daring to defy the Islamic dress code.
Fear Grows Among Iranian Clerics Over Hijab Rebellion
Recent statements from top clerics and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reflect their rising concerns about the weakening of their ideological control due to growing defiance against hijab.
Khamenei and other clerics, who previously dismissed women opposing mandatory hijab as a small minority influenced by "the enemy," are now framing unveiling as a "challenge" and advocating for stricter enforcement of hijab laws.
During a recent address to government officials, Khamenei claimed to have received "reliable reports" of women being paid to unveil, allegedly by "the enemy," to undermine the hijab. He labeled hijab defiance as "an imposed challenge," suggesting it was orchestrated to weaken societal adherence to hijab.
Economy
Sudan civil war: are Iranian drones helping the army gain ground?
A year into Sudan's civil war, Iranian-made armed drones have helped the army turn the tide of the conflict, halting the progress of the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Force and regaining territory around the capital, a senior army source told Reuters.
Six Iranian sources, regional officials and diplomats - who, like the army source, asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the information - also told Reuters the military had acquired Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) over the past few months.
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) used some older UAVs in the first months of the war alongside artillery batteries and fighter jets, but had little success in rooting out RSF fighters embedded in heavily populated neighbourhoods in Khartoum and other cities, more than a dozen Khartoum residents said.
(Reuters)
Inside Iran
Iran frees 4 conservationists who worked to save cheetahs before being convicted of espionage
Iran released four conservationists who had worked to save the endangered Asiatic cheetah before they were convicted on espionage charges and spent five years in prison, local media reported on Tuesday.
The Tehran newspaper Etemad said authorities released on Monday night Niloufar Bayani and Houman Jowkar, who were part of a group of five activists convicted in 2019 on internationally criticized espionage charges.
Later on Tuesday, several Iranian media outlets, including the semiofficial ILNA news agency, said two other conservationists were also released, Sepideh Kashani and Taher Ghadirain.
(WSLS)
Iran to hold special tourism workshops in 20 provinces
In a bid to enhance the quality of services provided to tourists, Iran’s tourism ministry is set to organize a series of training workshops soon.
On Sunday, Abutaleb Qasemi, who presides over the ministry’s office for tourism studies, planning, and education, announced a plan to conduct five empowerment workshops from April 8 to 19 across 20 provinces of the country.
Qasemi stated, “Given the necessity of strengthening the skills and training of human resources in the tourism sector, organizing empowerment training courses has been prioritized as a key project.”
Regional Politics
Iran signals it will limit response to Israel attack to avoid escalation
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told his German counterpart on Thursday that Iran is determined to respond to Israel's bombing of its consular building in Damascus last week, but will do so in an "appropriate" and limited way, a source with direct knowledge of the call told Axios.
Why it matters: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock initiated the call at the request of the Biden administration, which is highly concerned that an Iranian attack on Israel over the strike in Damascus — which killed a senior general — could lead to regional escalation.
Driving the news: Iran has publicly vowed to "punish" Israel for the assassination of Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a top Iranian Quds Force general in charge of Iran's military operations in Lebanon and Syria.
(Axios)
Global Relations
US asks China to tell Iran not to retaliate against Israel
The US has asked China and other countries, including Turkey and Saudi Arabia, to urge Tehran not to launch a retaliatory attack on Israel for its air strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria.
US secretary of state Antony Blinken spoke to counterparts, including Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, this week amid mounting concern in Washington of an imminent attack by Iran.
“We have also engaged with European allies and partners over the past few days and urged them as well to send a clear message to Iran: that escalation is not in Iran’s interest, it’s not in the region’s interest and it’s not in the world’s interest,” said state department spokesperson Matt Miller.
Lufthansa Suspends Flights To Iran Citing Heightened Tensions
German airlines Lufthansa has suspended flights to and from Tehran for 24 hours amid concerns of a potential military escalation, the company told Iran International.
In response to an inquiry, a company spokesperson said, "Due to the current situation in the Middle East, Lufthansa has decided to suspend flights to and from Tehran until Thursday, April 11, 2024. We are constantly monitoring the situation in the Middle East and are in close contact with the authorities. The security and safety of our guests and crew members have top priority for Lufthansa."
Iran has been threatening to retaliate against an Israeli missile strike on April 1 that killed two top IRGC generals and five other officers in its embassy compound in Damascus. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned on Wednesday that Israel should be punished.
Analysis
Biden should not follow Netanyahu into war with Iran
By: Daniel Larison
The U.S. and Israel have been raising the alarm of a possible Iranian retaliatory strike in response to last week’s Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic facility in Damascus. The president once again pledged “ironclad” U.S. support for Israel in the event of an Iranian response, and the head of Central Command, Gen. Erik Kurilla, was reportedly headed to Israel Thursday to coordinate with Israeli leaders ahead of the expected strike. The administration is moving in the wrong direction. The U.S. ought to be distancing itself from Israel’s illegal attack, but instead the Biden administration is moving to shield Israel from the consequences of its own actions.
Israeli forces have routinely struck Iranian and other targets in Syria for more than a decade, but the attack on the consulate in Damascus was a major escalation both in terms of the location and the rank of the Iranian officers that were killed. The Israeli government appears to want to goad Iran into a military response to divert attention from the slaughter and famine in Gaza and to trap the U.S. into joining the fight. The president has made it that much easier for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by volunteering to walk into the trap.
The U.S. is at considerable risk of becoming involved in a direct conflict with Iran thanks to the reckless actions of the Netanyahu government and the president’s lockstep support. This does not serve legitimate U.S. security interests. The U.S. cannot afford another conflict in the Middle East, and siding with Israel exposes U.S. forces to significant unnecessary dangers. The U.S. is under no obligation to come to Israel’s defense if Iran retaliates against an Israeli strike, and the president has no authority to commit the U.S. to fight a war for another country, especially when that country is not a treaty ally.
