Iran Digest Week of March 15- March 22
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US- Iran Relations
Broad US sanctions on Iran have failed, have tightened regime's grip, experts say
US sanctions on Iran have not worked as intended, in part because comprehensive sanctions are so difficult to remove that they no longer motivate Iran to change its behavior, panelists said March 21 during a webinar hosted by the Middle East Institute.
While sanctions did reduce oil exports from Iran, they also consolidated power in government-owned companies that have the resources to evade sanctions, which has allowed more money to flow to the government's coffers and solidified conflict in the region, the panelists said.
"Sanctions are only effective if you can remove them, and if you can't remove them and it becomes a one-way ratchet, I think it really undermines the effectiveness of the strategy," said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group.
(S&P Global Commodity Insights)
Women of Iran
Two Iranian women, two very different views on how the West should deal with Iran
Dour mullahs have for decades forced Iranians into lives appallingly different from all that their long history and dazzling culture should have produced. Iran should be among the world’s most vibrant countries. Instead it is poor, isolated, and ruled by clerics who want to take society back to the seventh century.
Many Iranians wish for a completely different regime. Women don’t want to be forced to live under shrouds, young people want to speak freely, and all want to escape fears of prison and the executioner. What can the outside world do? That depends on whom you ask. Two totally opposite strategies have emerged from the ranks of unhappy Iranians.
Activists inside the country beg the rest of the world not to keep pushing the mullahs into corners where they feel threatened and pressed to lash out, but rather to engage with the regime. Many of these activists have lost hope that their government will evolve toward democracy on its own. They hope to strengthen civil society in ways that will slowly weaken the foundations of religious rule and force change from within. They argue that sanctions, isolation, and military threats weaken their cause and empower the authoritarian regime.
Economy
Iran's Currency Crisis: Central Bank Raises Alarm Amid Rial's Decline
A precise portrayal of the dire state of Iran's currency, the Rial, lies somewhere between helplessness and imminent threat, as articulated by Mohammad Reza Farzin, president of the Central Bank.
Concluding a conference themed around "Resistance Economy," Farzin implored attendees, whom he hailed as pivotal in policy formation, to safeguard the Rial from further deterioration.
He emphasized the critical role of the Rial in Iran's entire financial infrastructure, warning that its destabilization would have catastrophic repercussions for the nation's financial stability.
Inside Iran
Iran's Currency Crisis: Central Bank Raises Alarm Amid Rial's Decline
A precise portrayal of the dire state of Iran's currency, the Rial, lies somewhere between helplessness and imminent threat, as articulated by Mohammad Reza Farzin, president of the Central Bank.
Concluding a conference themed around "Resistance Economy," Farzin implored attendees, whom he hailed as pivotal in policy formation, to safeguard the Rial from further deterioration.
He emphasized the critical role of the Rial in Iran's entire financial infrastructure, warning that its destabilization would have catastrophic repercussions for the nation's financial stability.
Regional Politics
Iran's Currency Crisis: Central Bank Raises Alarm Amid Rial's Decline
A precise portrayal of the dire state of Iran's currency, the Rial, lies somewhere between helplessness and imminent threat, as articulated by Mohammad Reza Farzin, president of the Central Bank.
Concluding a conference themed around "Resistance Economy," Farzin implored attendees, whom he hailed as pivotal in policy formation, to safeguard the Rial from further deterioration.
He emphasized the critical role of the Rial in Iran's entire financial infrastructure, warning that its destabilization would have catastrophic repercussions for the nation's financial stability.
Global Relations
After Iran-Backed Synagogue Plot, Calls To Close Tehran’s Embassy
Following a German court's ruling attributing Iran's regime to a foiled 2022 terrorist plot targeting a synagogue in Bochum, many have urged Berlin to close Tehran's embassy and designate the IRGC as a terrorist entity.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has launched numerous terrorist attacks since the 1979 Islamic revolution within the territory of Germany, including the infamous 1992 Mykonos attack.
There has been a spike of IRGC surveillance and terrorist operations over the last decade in Germany.
UN Fact-Finding Mission Seeks Extension, But Tehran’s Allies Could Force Termination
U.N.-appointed international legal experts who investigated Iran’s suppression of a women’s rights movement that erupted in September 2022 are appealing for more time to do their work, but objections from Tehran’s allies could terminate their mission next month.
The chairperson of the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Iran, Sara Hossain, made the appeal Monday in Geneva, where she and her two counterparts presented their first in-depth report to the U.N. Human Rights Council.
The mission’s main finding was that Iran’s “violent repression of peaceful protests” of the Woman-Life-Freedom movement since September 2022 led to “serious human rights violations ... many amounting to crimes against humanity.” The three-woman team’s mandate, established by the HRC in November 2022, expires at the end of the current HRC session on April 5.
(VOA)
Analysis
Why Iranian Entrenchment in Southern Syria Worries Neighboring Countries
By: Armenak Tokmajyan & Kheder Khaddour
Southern Syria—corresponding to Quneitra, Daraa, and Suwayda Governorates—abuts Jordan, the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and Lebanon. Whoever controls this area enjoys considerable geopolitical leverage, particularly with regard to Jordan and Israel. Those parts of Quneitra that are not occupied by Israel have strategic value because they are on high ground near the disengagement line established after the October 1973 Arab-Israeli War between the Syrian and Israeli armies. Their proximity to the Golan means that Israeli forces and towns there are vulnerable to attacks from Quneitra.
After losing parts of Daraa and Quneitra Governorates to opposition groups during the Syrian uprising in 2011, Syria’s military recaptured them in 2018. However, it failed to fully reassert government authority. On the contrary, Damascus’s administrative, economic, and security capabilities steadily deteriorated, as did its influence. For example, while President Bashar al-Assad’s regime never lost control over the Druze-majority Suwayda Governorate, in recent years the regime’s power has waned. The region is in turmoil, with frequent kidnappings and assassinations, poor services and governance capabilities, scarce economic resources, and proliferating armed factions.
As in all Syrian borderlands, the south is susceptible to influence from local groups and regional powers vying for dominance. However, unlike northeastern Syria or Idlib Governorate, where the Kurds’ People’s Protection Units or Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra) dominate, respectively, no single local or foreign actor does so in southern Syria. Similarly, while Türkiye and the United States have considerable sway in the north, linkages between local groups and outside states remain fluid in the south, where multiple parties are endeavoring to determine outcomes.
