Iran Digest Week of September 27- October 4
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
Biden says US discussing possible Israeli strikes on Iran oil facilities
Joe Biden has said the US is discussing with Israel the possibility of Israeli strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure.
When asked if he would support such strikes, Mr Biden said: "We're discussing that. I think that would be a little... anyway."
His off-the-cuff remarks, made as he left the White House, did not make clear Washington’s stance. Mr Biden has previously said he would not support Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
(BBC)
Nuclear Program
US and G7 warn Israel against strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities
The US and its western allies are trying to limit Israel’s response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack in the hope of preventing a widening regional conflict from spiralling out of control. Washington has made clear it supports Israel’s right to respond militarily to Tuesday’s missile attack, and is holding frequent calls with Israeli officials as they plan their next move. US President Joe Biden on Wednesday spoke with the other leaders of the G7 to co-ordinate sanctions on Tehran for the attack and advise Israel on its response.
Economy
Iran and Qatar consider establishing joint currency exchange entity
The head of Iran-Qatar Joint Chamber of Commerce has proposed the establishment of a financial institution aimed at facilitating transfer of funds to and from Qatar.
Mostafa Salehinejad discussed the plan a day after President Masoud Pezeshkian returned from Qatar. Upon his arrival, the President announced that Tehran had reached an "understanding" with Doha regarding the $6 billion Iranian fund, which had been released last year from South Korean banks and is currently held in Qatar.
In August 2023, the US and Iran reached an agreement that led to the exchange of five detained Americans in Tehran for five Iranians imprisoned in the US. A crucial part of the deal was the transfer of $6 billion in frozen Iranian assets from South Korean banks to Qatar, allowing Iran conditional access to the funds for the purchase of non-sanctioned goods.
Inside Iran
How are Iranians reacting to the missile attack on Israel?
ranian netizens are expressing highly contradictory opinions about Tuesday’s missile attack on Israel, ranging from strong approval to calls for Israel to retaliate forcefully.
Posts from Iranian hardliners and ultra-hardliners expressed both enthusiasm for the missile strike and frustration with President Masoud Pezeshkian. This group, which typically supports Saeed Jalili, an ultra-conservative politician and former nuclear negotiator, criticized Pezeshkian and his Strategic Deputy, Mohammad-Javad Zarif, for delaying a response to Israel after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July. They argued that the government’s retaliation came too late, further deepening their dissatisfaction with Pezeshkian's leadership.
“Yes, you are right, war is scary but sometimes there’s no other option. War is like chemotherapy which has pain, costs, side effects and may even not work but it is sometimes the only and final path,” a pro-Jalili netizen posted.
Regional Politics
What we know about Iran's missile attack on Israel
Iran launched almost 200 ballistic missiles towards Israel on Tuesday night.
The Israeli military said most of the missiles were intercepted, but that a small number struck central and southern Israel. The only person reported to have been killed was a Palestinian man in the occupied West Bank.
It was Iran’s second such attack on Israel this year, after it launched about 300 missiles and drones in April.
(BBC)
Iranian foreign minister visits Beirut as Gulf states declare neutrality
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi landed in Beirut on Friday, days after Tehran launched a barrage of missiles on Israel, Iranian state media reported.
The visit came hours after Israeli air strikes hit the vicinity of the Lebanese capital’s airport and following overnight air strikes that allegedly targeted Hashem Safieddine, the likely successor of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah who was assassinated by a massive Israeli raid in southern Beirut on 27 September.
Araghchi is scheduled to meet with Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, an ally of Hezbollah.
Global Relations
UN chief condemns Iran attack after Israel ban
The United Nations secretary general has condemned Iranian strikes on Israel, after earlier being banned from the country for his initial response.
Speaking to the UN Security Council, António Guterres said it was high time to stop what he called the "deadly cycle of tit-for-tat violence" in the Middle East.
In an earlier statement, Israel's Foreign Minister Israel Katz declared Guterres persona non grata and an "anti-Israel secretary-general who lends support to terrorists".
(BBC)
Analysis
Escalating to War between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran
By: Daniel Byman, Seth G. Jones, and Alexander Palmer
There is a serious risk of all-out war between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran. According to new CSIS analysis, both the scale and geographic scope of violence have dramatically increased. The number of violent incidents related to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict increased 4.5 times in the last week of September from the weekly average between October 7, 2023, and August 31, 2024. In addition, the attacks are targeting a much larger geographic area. Israeli and Hezbollah attacks struck an average of 27–28 km from the Blue Line in the last week of September, up from an average of about 3–4 km between October 7, 2023, and August 31, 2024. The number of strikes and the geography of the conflict are likely to grow and include a larger swath of Lebanon and Israel as well as potentially Iran, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah continue to escalate in what Israel has called Operation Northern Arrows. In mid-September 2024, Israeli intelligence sabotaged thousands of Hezbollah beepers and walkie-talkies, detonating them in an operation that killed dozens of group members and wounded thousands more. On September 27, 2024, Israel killed Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike on the group’s Beirut headquarters—the culmination of a campaign against Hezbollah’s leaders that led to the killing of numerous senior group leaders in September 2024. Two days before the Nasrallah assassination, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, chief of the general staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), told Israeli troops from the Seventh Brigade deployed along the northern border, “We are preparing the process of a manoeuvre, which means your military boots . . . will enter enemy territory.” The IDF also called up two reserve brigades for what it referred to as “operational missions in the northern arena.” Israeli commandoes have conducted cross-border operations to gather intelligence and otherwise prepare for a ground invasion, and Israel has done limited operations so far in southern Lebanon. Iran responded by launching waves of ballistic missiles and other stand-off weapons at Israel.
To better understand the prospect of further escalation, this brief asks four questions: What are Israel’s and Hezbollah’s objectives? How has violence evolved over the past several months? What are plausible scenarios for further escalation? What options do the United States and other countries have to mitigate or prevent escalation? To answer these questions, this analysis draws on a mixture of quantitative and qualitative information. It compiles data on Israeli and Hezbollah strikes along the Israel-Lebanon-Syria border and geolocates Hezbollah attacks against Israel in the demilitarized zone between the Blue Line and Litani River.
A Wider War in the Middle East, From Hamas to Hezbollah and Now Iran
By: David E. Sanger
The long-feared “wider war” in the Middle East is here.
For the last 360 days, since the images of the slaughter of about 1,200 people in Israel last Oct. 7 flashed around the world, President Biden has warned at every turn against allowing a terrorist attack by Hamas to spread into a conflict with Iran’s other proxy force, Hezbollah, and ultimately with Iran itself.
Now, after Israel assassinated the Hezbollah chief, Hassan Nasrallah, and began a ground invasion of Lebanon, and after Iran retaliated on Tuesday by launching nearly 200 missiles at Israel, it has turned into one of the region’s most dangerous moments since the Arab-Israeli War of 1967.
Escalation with Iran could be risky: Israel is more vulnerable than it seems
By: Andrew Roth
In the aftermath of Iran’s attack on Israel on Tuesday night, Israeli officials claimed their defences had stood firm. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said Iran had launched more than 180 missiles, but few details about the damage were released and the US’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said the attack “appears to have been defeated and ineffective”.
But as Isra el prepares its retaliation, analysts believe those initial reports could have been misleading – and could change the calculus of Israel’s response if it fears getting into a bout of protracted “missile ping-pong” with Iran, especially should Tehran choose softer targets in the future.
Satellite and social media footage has shown missile after missile striking the Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert, and setting off at least some secondary explosions, indicating that despite the highly touted effectiveness of Israel’s Iron Dome and Arrow air defences, Iran’s strikes were more effective than had been previously admitted.
