Iran Digest Week of October 4- October 11
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
US expands sanctions to Iran's 'ghost fleet' of oil tankers
The United States expanded sanctions against Iran's petroleum and petrochemical sectors on Friday in response to an Iranian missile attack on Israel, the administration of President Joe Biden said.
The U.S. move adds petroleum and petrochemicals to an executive order that targets key sectors of Iran's economy with the aim of denying the government funds to support its nuclear and missile programs.
"The new designations today also include measures against the 'Ghost Fleet' that carries Iran’s illicit oil to buyers around the world," Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, said in a statement. "These measures will help further deny Iran financial resources used to support its missile programs and provide support for terrorist groups that threaten the United States, its allies, and partners."
(Reuters)
Trump campaign requests military protection, fearing ‘Iran threat’
Donald Trump’s campaign has requested the use of military aircraft to protect the former president in the final weeks of the election race — an unprecedented demand for a candidate in the United States.
The extraordinary request, which also included expanded flight restrictions over Trump’s residences and rallies and an array of military vehicles to shuttle him around, comes as many in Trump’s orbit have become convinced, without evidence, that Iran may have been behind two recent assassination attempts against the former president, The New York Times and Washington Post reported on Friday.
No presidential nominee in recent history has flown in military planes while campaigning before an election. Kamala Harris receives military protection and flies on Air Force Two, a military plane, because she is the sitting vice president.
(AlJazeera)
Nuclear Program
Will Iran opt for nuclear weapons?
As some of Iran's hardliners call for the weaponization of the country's nuclear program by pushing for "a change in its nuclear doctrine," it raises questions among Iran watchers about the implications of such demands.
Is the call for weaponization genuine?
The short answer is "No." Since 2003, Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear program is peaceful. The push for weaponization comes from a small faction of hardliners—about 39 lawmakers, making up just over 10 percent of the 290-seat parliament. This parliament, however, has steadily lost its influence, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei increasingly bypassing it and delegating key decisions to others, such as the heads of the three branches of government and the unelected Expediency Discernment Council.
The longer answer lies in a popular Iranian saying: "No leaf falls from any tree without the Supreme Leader's permission." Khamenei makes all key decisions but prefers to give the appearance that others are initiating actions. If something fails, he can shift the blame; if it succeeds, he claims the credit. This pattern has been seen before, including during the negotiations that led to the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.
Women of Iran
Iran overturns death sentence of labor activist Sharifeh Mohammadi
Iran's highest court overturned the death sentence of a woman labor rights activist who was accused of links to an outlawed Kurdish group, local media reported Saturday.
"The Supreme Court ... has overturned the verdict against my client, Ms. Sharifeh Mohammadi," her lawyer Amir Raisian was quoted as saying by the reformist Shargh daily newspaper.
He added that the case was referred for a re-trial.
(VOA)
Economy
Infighting in Iran escalates over global financial compliance
Iran's political elite is divided over the nation's refusal to comply with international financial regulations under the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), which has placed the country on its blacklist.
The hardline faction has ramped up their opposition to the international anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing body after eight years of its appeals for compliance.
The infighting within the government comes at a time when Iran’s economy is grappling with sanctions, inflation, and widespread public dissatisfaction, posing challenges for new President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration. The FATF demands compliance with global rule on money laundering and terrorism financing among other requirements.
Regional Politics
Exclusive: Stop Israel from bombing Iran's oil sites, Gulf states urge US
Gulf states are lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran's oil sites because they are concerned their own oil facilities could come under fire from Tehran's proxies if the conflict escalates, three Gulf sources told Reuters.
As part of their attempts to avoid being caught in the crossfire, Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are also refusing to let Israel fly over their airspace for any attack on Iran and have conveyed this to Washington, the three sources close to government circles said.
Israel has promised Iran will pay for its missile attack last week while Tehran has said any retaliation would be met with vast destruction, raising fears of a wider war in the region that could suck in the United States.
(Reuters)
Secret Documents Show Hamas Tried to Persuade Iran to Join Its Oct. 7 Attack
For more than two years, Yahya Sinwar huddled with his top Hamas commanders and plotted what they hoped would be the most devastating and destabilizing attack on Israel in the militant group’s four-decade history.
Minutes of Hamas’s secret meetings, seized by the Israeli military and obtained by The New York Times, provide a detailed record of the planning for the Oct. 7 terrorist attack, as well as Mr. Sinwar’s determination to persuade Hamas’s allies, Iran and Hezbollah, to join the assault or at least commit to a broader fight with Israel if Hamas staged a surprise cross-border raid.
The documents, which represent a breakthrough in understanding Hamas, also show extensive efforts to deceive Israel about its intentions as the group laid the groundwork for a bold assault and a regional conflagration that Mr. Sinwar hoped would cause Israel to “collapse.”
Iran warns its neighbors not to help Israel attack
Bracing itself for a retaliatory strike from Israel, Iran has been urging its Arab neighbors not to allow Israel to use their airspace, two diplomats from Gulf nations told NBC News on Friday.
Israel has vowed to respond to last week’s ballistic missile attack by Iran, prompting Tehran to warn countries that helping Israel in any way could potentially escalate into war, one of the diplomats said. Both asked not to be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the sensitive issue.
“The Gulf Cooperation Council is not interested in being caught in a crossfire,” one diplomat said. “Our focus has been on de-escalation.”
(NBC)
Global Relations
Russia’s Putin meets Iran’s Pezeshkian amid spiralling Middle East violence
Russian President Vladimir Putin has met Iran’s new president as concerns grow over escalating attacks between Israel and Iran along with its network of aligned armed groups.
Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian discussed the situation in the Middle East on the sidelines of a regional meeting in Turkmenistan on Friday, Russian state media reported.
They met before their two countries are expected to sign a strategic partnership agreement.
Analysis
Walking a Tightrope: How Gulf States are Navigating the Iran-Israel Conflict
By: Mehran Haghirian
When the Gaza war erupted a year ago, a major question faced the nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Would they draw closer to the United States and by extension, Israel, in confrontation with Iran, the sponsor of Hamas, Hezbollah and other anti-Israel militant groups? Or would they chart a more independent course, increasingly diverging from the U.S.-Israeli vision of a new Middle Eastern order?
While Washington and Tel Aviv often present their partnerships with the Gulf as a success, the reality is more complex. Since 2021—and particularly after the March 2023 reconciliation agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia—the GCC states have increasingly prioritized diplomacy over confrontation, engagement over isolation, and regional dialogue over military escalation.
This is a major shift from the time of the Donald Trump administration, when Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates openly supported the U.S. “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, hoping to contain Tehran’s influence through U.S. and Israeli security guarantees. The approach began to change after Trump withdrew in 2018 from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and military tensions soared in the 2018-2020 period. Saudi Arabia and the UAE faced direct attacks to their energy infrastructure by Iran-backed groups.
