Iran Digest Week of October 11- October 19
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
Biden says there’s ‘opportunity’ to end attacks between Iran and Israel
United States President Joe Biden has expressed optimism about preventing an all-out war between Israel and Iran, but he sounded less confident about the prospects of a ceasefire in Gaza soon.
Speaking to reporters in Berlin on Friday, where he met with the leaders of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, Biden assessed the efforts to end the multi-arena conflict in the Middle East.
“There’s an opportunity in my view – and my colleagues agree – that we can probably deal with Israel and Iran in a way that ends the conflict for a while. In other words, it stops the back and forth,” Biden said.
(AlJazeera)
Women of Iran
Will Pezeshkian Keep His Promise to Iranian Women?
President Masoud Pezeshkian is facing a legal challenge as he works to deliver on a key campaign promise. He finds himself at a critical crossroads, forced to choose whether to comply with or defy a parliamentary bill on "Hijab and Chastity."
Members of Iran's Parliament believe that the Guardian Council has approved the bill, effectively making it an enforceable law.
However, a spokesperson for the administration said, "The President’s approach to hijab is clear: cultural matters cannot be imposed by force. Any law must serve the country's best interests and have the necessary legal support. We are pursuing careful expert work to ensure the law benefits the nation."
Health
Iran reports over 7,000 tuberculosis cases, partly fueled by dust storms
More than 7,000 tuberculosis cases were reported across Iran last year, according to the Ministry of Health, with the highest concentrations in the provinces of Sistan-Baluchistan in the southeast and Golestan in the northeast.
Speaking to the semi-official ILNA news agency, the head of the Ministry’s Tuberculosis and Leprosy Division, Mahshid Nasehi, noted that other provinces with significant case numbers included Gilan, Khuzestan, Khorasan Razavi, Qom, and Yazd.
Nasehi also stated that there is no province without reported tuberculosis cases and added that, in Tehran province, the incidence rate of tuberculosis relative to the population is higher than the national average.
Economy
The Struggle for Survival in an Impoverished Iran
In 2018, the World Bank reported that 0.5% of the Iranian population—approximately 420,000 people—were living below the absolute poverty line, defined as having an income of less than $1.90 per day. Around the same time, Iran’s Parliament Research Center estimated that between 23% and 40% of the population was living in poverty.
However, by October 2020, the situation had worsened dramatically. According to the same research center, more than 60% of Iran’s population had fallen below the poverty line due to the sharp decline in the value of the rial. The poverty line in Iran had surged to 20 million tomans per month.
The growing poverty in Iran is particularly tragic given the country’s wealth of natural resources. On one side of a stark economic divide, nearly 246,000 Iranians are classified as millionaires (in USD), making Iran home to four times as many millionaires as Turkey and three times as many as Egypt. Yet, almost one in every three Iranians struggles to meet basic needs, revealing the deep inequality that defines the nation’s economy.
Regional Politics
Leaked U.S. Intelligence Suggests Israel Is Preparing to Strike Iran
The leak of a pair of highly classified U.S. intelligence documents describing recent satellite images of Israeli military preparations for a potential strike on Iran offers a window into the intense American concerns about Israel’s plans. It also has U.S. officials working to understand the size of the improper disclosure.
The two documents were prepared in recent days by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which is responsible for analyzing images and information collected by American spy satellites. They began circulating on Friday on the Telegram app and were being discussed by largely pro-Iran accounts.
The documents, which offer interpretations of satellite imagery, provide insight into a potential strike by Israel on Iran in the coming days. Such a strike has been anticipated in retaliation for an Iranian assault earlier this month, which was itself a response to an Israeli attack.
Lebanon Issues Rare Criticism of Iran Over ‘Blatant Interference’
Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister accused Iran on Friday of meddling in the country’s affairs, opening up a rare diplomatic spat after Iran’s parliament speaker remarked that his country was ready to help negotiate terms to bring about a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah.
The reported remarks amounted to “a blatant interference in Lebanese affairs,” said the prime minister, Najib Mikati, who later summoned Tehran’s envoy to answer for them — a highly unusual rebuke by a top Lebanese official given the stranglehold that Iran-backed Hezbollah has on the country.
In an interview published by France’s Le Figaro newspaper a day earlier, the Iranian parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, was quoted as saying that his government was ready to negotiate with France on the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701, a U.N. agreement that ended the last war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006 and is seen as a precondition for a cease-fire in Lebanon.
Attack on Bibi's residence: Israel vows response, Iran denies involvement
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran after a Hezbollah drone strike targeted his Caesarea residence early Saturday. Though no injuries occurred, Netanyahu condemned the attack, linking it to Iran and its regional allies.
The drone, fired from Lebanon by Hezbollah, struck Netanyahu’s seaside residence, though the prime minister and his wife were not present. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that a building was hit in Caesarea, an affluent town known for its luxury villas and ancient Roman ruins. Netanyahu’s office released a brief statement acknowledging the attack, followed by the prime minister’s vow of response.
"The attempt by Iran’s proxy Hezbollah to assassinate me and my wife today was a grave mistake," the Israeli premier wrote on X. "This will not deter me or the State of Israel from continuing our just war against our enemies in order to secure our future."
Global Relations
Iran hosts joint naval drills with Russia and Oman in Indian Ocean, state media reports
Naval drills hosted by Iran with the participation of Russia and Oman and observed by nine other countries began in the Indian Ocean on Saturday, Iran's state TV said.
The exercises, dubbed "IMEX 2024", are aimed at boosting "collective security in the region, expand multilateral cooperation, and display the goodwill and capabilities to safeguard peace, friendship and maritime security", the English-language Press TV said.
Participants would practice tactics to ensure international maritime trade security, protect maritime routes, enhance humanitarian measures and exchange information on rescue and relief operations, it said.
(Reuters)
EU sanctions Iran over alleged missile transfers to Russia
The European Union has announced sanctions against more than a dozen Iranian individuals and firms, including the country’s deputy defence minister and national airline, over the alleged transfer of missiles and drones to Russia.
The European Council said on Monday that seven individuals and as many entities in total would be subject to an asset freeze and travel ban over their involvement in transferring weapons and equipment to Moscow for use in its war against Ukraine.
Those targeted include Iranian Deputy Defence Minister Seyed Hamzeh Ghalandari, high-ranking members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, and three Iranian airlines, including Iran Air.
Analysis
Iran’s nuclear messaging campaign
By: Alam Saleh & Zakiyeh Yazdanshenas
Iran’s missile attack on Israel on Oct. 1, 2024, marked a significant escalation in the ongoing regional tensions. This assault, reportedly involving 180 missiles, was the Islamic Republic of Iran’s largest yet against Israel, targeting military and security sites in retaliation for Israeli assassinations of leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah in Tehran and Beirut. Iranian officials framed the attack as an act of self-defense, warning that further Israeli actions could provoke even stronger retaliation from Tehran.
This barrage, along with the missile and drone attack on April 13, raises important questions about Iran’s deterrent power. While Iran demonstrated its capacity to launch large-scale missile strikes, Israel’s robust missile-defense systems, supported by American assets in theater, reduced the impact of the attack. This highlights a complex balance of deterrence: while Iran can inflict damage, Israel’s defensive and retaliatory capabilities — backed by overwhelming resources from the United States and its Western and regional allies — seem to limit Iran’s ability to shift the strategic balance decisively.
This conflict is not purely about military capacities but about who appears less deterred and more determined, where perceptions of weakness may carry significant weight. In this context, Iran’s missile capabilities are a show of force, but they do not conclusively alter the deterrence dynamics between the two countries. Both sides retain significant retaliatory capacity, including nuclear options. Game theory suggests that the actor willing to go further or behave most irrationally gains an advantage, a dynamic encapsulated in the so-called Madman Theory — where bluffing, risking escalation, or acting unpredictably are calculated tactics.
