Iran Digest Week of October 19- October 25
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
Joe Biden says he hopes latest Israeli strike on Iran will end escalation
The US President Joe Biden said on Saturday he hopes Israel’s latest strikes on Iran will mark the end of a months-long cycle of escalation, as his administration doubles down on efforts to reach a ceasefire deal for Gaza and Lebanon. “I hope this is the end,” he told reporters.
Waves of fighter jets and drones bombed military sites across Iran in an hours-long barrage on Saturday, the first time Israel has openly attacked its erstwhile enemy after decades of shadow warfare.
However, the strikes were restrained enough for Iranian officials to belittle the scale and effectiveness of the incursion and for Israeli hardliners to denounce their government for timidity. Israel’s military could have “exacted a higher price”, opposition leader Yair Lapid said in a post on X after the bombing ended.
(The Guardian)
Women of Iran
Women Are Leading the Resistance Against Executions in Iran
Amid Iran’s heightened, unconscionable mass scale of executions and a growing abolitionist campaign of resistance led from within the country’s prisons, Iran’s Supreme Court overturned the death sentence for Sharifieh Mohammadi, a feminist labor activist. Mohammadi was alleged to have ties to labor organizations that were accused of baghy, or seeking armed rebellion against the state. Despite the fact that the suspected organizations had denied her membership, undermining the charge of baghy, this summer she was sentenced to death. On October 13, her defense lawyer confirmed that her death sentence had been overturned and that she is up for a retrial.
Thousands of people, including many human rights activists and drug offenders, have been executed in Iran since 1979. As of October 18, Iran has killed 570 people on death row in 2024, and the number continues to rise. On October 6, Iran executed Akhtar Ghorbanlu, a child bride. Mohammadreza Azizi, who was 17 at the time of his alleged offense, is scheduled for execution in October. The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights has demanded a moratorium on the death penalty in Iran.
Iran’s executions not only constitute outrageous human rights violations but also function as a form of collective punishment, systematically targeting generations of Iranians who have transgressed authoritarianism by fighting for social change. The repression is so lethal that it is now common knowledge among diverse marginalized communities within Iran, as well as abolitionists around the world, that Iran weaponizes the death penalty to suppress speech. This growing awareness presents an opening for the international community to demand that Iran abolish the death penalty, and that countries throughout the world cease all forms of dehumanization, whether manifested in the United States’ own grim record of executions or the US foreign policy of aiding the genocide of Palestinians.
(Newsweek)
Interview: Iranian Photojournalist Recounts State Violence During Woman, Life, Freedom Protests
As we approach the International Day to End Impunity for Crimes Against Journalists, the Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI) and Middle East Images (MEI) present an exclusive interview with an Iranian photojournalist who risked his life to document the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement that erupted across Iran in 2022, following the killing of Mahsa Jina Amini in state custody in Iran days after her arrest for an allegedly improper hijab.
This photojournalist has endured state violence, detention, and surveillance, necessitating the anonymity of his identity for safety reasons. Yet, his powerful images have been shared across global platforms.
“They threatened me, put a weapon to my head, and applied electric shocks, saying, ‘If you don’t give up your phone by the day after tomorrow, it only takes a moment, and we might do it,’” he recounted.
Economy
A crack in the BRICS: Iran’s economic challenges take center stage at Russia’s summit
This week, finance ministers and central bank governors from over 190 countries will gather in Washington, DC, for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Annual Meetings. But there is another major economic event happening on the opposite side of the world. Leaders of the BRICS group are meeting in the Russian city of Kazan for their annual summit, with Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, in attendance for the first time after his country officially joined the BRICS earlier this year.
Uncertainty continues to loom over Iran as Israeli officials pledge to retaliate against Tehran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel earlier this month. However, while most analysis focuses on Iran’s geopolitical objectives in the region, there has been less discussion about the severe economic constraints facing the regime. These challenges will be at the center of Iran’s priorities during its first BRICS summit.
Iran’s economy is underperforming—and of its fellow BRICS members, it has one of the weakest economies. The chart below shows the difference in gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates amongst BRICS countries from 2023 to 2024, with Iran’s rate declining the most. The country’s economy is expected to continue to struggle, with growth rates remaining around 2 percent and inflation hovering around 34 percent. According to local media reports, bread prices have surged by 200 percent within the last year, while other basic necessities, such as water and housing, have also seen steep price hikes.
Inside Iran
What are Iranians saying about Israel’s air strikes?
Ultra-hardliner loyalists of the establishment in Iran are demanding a quick response to Israeli air strikes Saturday, but many others are cautioning about further escalation and want an end to the conflict.
Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement Saturday that the Islamic Republic is "entitled and obligated to defend against foreign aggressive actions, based on the inherent right of self-defense” and that “It highlights the individual and collective responsibility of all countries in the region to safeguard peace and stability.”
“Zionists must receive a response right now even if they managed to land one American missile in Iran, even in an insignificant location. Speediness of Iran's reaction is a component of our strength and will cause disruption to the possible continuation of the attacks,” Abdollah Ganji, the former editor of the IRGC-linked Javan newspaper tweeted after the third wave of attacks.
Ten Iranian border guards killed in restive southeast
Ten Iranian border guards were killed in an attack in the restive Sistan-Baluchestan province on Saturday, according to an Interior Ministry statement on X.
"Following the martyrdom of 10 border guards on the Goharkouh road in Taftan County, the Minister of Interior promptly assigned a team of police commanders and Ministry of Interior officials to investigate the details of this incident," the statement added.
The insurgent Sunni Baloch group Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility for the attack.
Regional Politics
Iran plays down Israel's strikes, says they caused 'limited damage'
Iran on Saturday played down Israel's overnight air attack against Iranian military targets, saying it caused only limited damage, as U.S. President Joe Biden called for a halt to escalation that has raised fears of an all-out conflagration in the Middle East.
Scores of Israeli jets completed three waves of strikes before dawn against missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran, Israel's military said.
It was retaliation for Iran's Oct. 1 attack on Israel with about 200 ballistic missiles, and Israel warned its heavily armed arch-foe not to hit back after the latest strike.
(Reuters)
Israel strikes military targets in Iran in reprisal that raises risk of regional war
Israel has said it has launched direct airstrikes against military targets in Iran, a retaliation that could bring the Middle East closer to a full-scale regional war.
The Israel Defense Forces said it had completed its air attack on Saturday morning, hitting missile and drone manufacturing sites and aerial defences in several areas in Iran. Israel’s public broadcaster said three waves of strikes had been carried out.
Iranian air defences said that Israel attacked military targets in the provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam and that “limited damage” was caused to some locations.
Global Relations
Condemnation, calls for restraint: World reacts to Israeli strikes on Iran
The Israeli military launched strikes on military bases in Iran, hitting about 20 sites over several hours in Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran.
The Iranian army confirmed four soldiers were killed after it said the attacks on Saturday targeted military bases but resulted in only “limited damage”.
The Israeli army announced that the operation was complete, and military spokesman Daniel Hagari said that if Iran carries out retaliatory strikes, Israel will be “obligated to respond”.
Analysis
In Deciding Whether to Retaliate, Iran Faces a Dilemma
By: Steven Erlanger
Iran faces a dilemma after the Israeli strikes on Saturday.
If it retaliates, it risks further escalation at a time when its economy is struggling, its allies are faltering, its military vulnerability is clear and its leadership succession is in play.
If it does not, it risks looking weak to those same allies, as well as to more aggressive and powerful voices at home.
Iran is already in the middle of a regional war. Since the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has moved swiftly to damage the militant group in Gaza and other Iranian proxies, including Hezbollah, the Houthis and its allies in Syria and Iraq.
These groups represent Iran’s “forward defense” against Israel, the heart of the nation’s deterrence. They have been badly weakened by the Israeli military’s tough response since Oct. 7, which weakens Iran, too, and makes it more vulnerable.
