Iran Digest Week of October 25- November 1
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
Pentagon Announces New Deployments To Middle East In Warning To Iran
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered the deployment of additional ballistic missile defense destroyers, fighter squadron and tanker aircraft, and several B-52 long-range strike bombers to the Middle East, a Pentagon statement said on November 1.
The forces will begin to arrive in the region in the coming months to replace the departing USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, Pentagon spokesman Major General Pat Ryder said in the statement.
The announcement comes three weeks after U.S. President Joe Biden said he had ordered the Pentagon to send a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery and troops to Israel as part of U.S. efforts to defend its ally and build up positions in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Iranian cyber group targets US swing states
A cyber group linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is actively attempting to influence the upcoming US presidential election by targeting hotly-contested states key to the outcome, researchers told Iran International.
The findings by cybersecurity researcher Nariman Gharib and whistleblower group Lab Dookhtegan show the IRGC’s cyber unit Emennet Pasargad is carrying out a campaign to “disrupt and incite tension in the elections, particularly in swing states,” according to their joint report.
Since 2024, the group - also known as "Shahid Shoushtari" - has been actively gathering intelligence on swing states. It has reportedly sent direct messages to US Senate candidates in one of these pivotal states with the intent of disrupting the electoral process.
How Russia, China and Iran Are Interfering in the Presidential Election
When Russia interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, spreading divisive and inflammatory posts online to stoke outrage, its posts were brash and riddled with spelling errors and strange syntax. They were designed to get attention by any means necessary.
“Hillary is a Satan,” one Russian-made Facebook post read.
Now, eight years later, foreign interference in American elections has become far more sophisticated, and far more difficult to track.
Nuclear Program
There is no evidence Iran has decided to rush toward building a nuclear weapon, CIA director says
There is no evidence that Iran has decided to build a nuclear weapon, and if it did, the U.S. and its allies would most likely be able to detect such a step soon after it was taken, CIA Director William Burns said Monday.
As Israel weighs how it will retaliate against Iran after it came under an Iranian ballistic missile barrage last week, speculation has focused on whether it might choose to strike nuclear sites in Iran to try to cut off Tehran’s possible path to a nuclear weapon.
Speaking at the Cipher Brief security conference in Sea Island, Georgia, Burns said Iran has advanced its nuclear program by stockpiling uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels. As a result, Iran could quickly secure enough fissile material for an atomic bomb if it chose to and there would be less time for the outside world to respond, he said.
(NBC)
Women of Iran
Iran’s imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate hospitalized with severe health issues
Iranian authorities have allowed imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi to be hospitalized after almost nine weeks of feeling sick, a group campaigning for the activist said Sunday.
The Free Narges Coalition said in a statement that Mohammadi must be granted a medical furlough to receive comprehensive treatment for multiple conditions. It said that just transferring her to the hospital will not address the severe health issues caused by months of neglect and deprivation.
Mohammadi is being held at Iran’s notorious Evin Prison, which houses political prisoners and those with Western ties. She already had been serving a 30-month sentence, to which 15 more months were added in January.
(AP News)
Economy
Why has lifting ban on iPhone shaken Iran's mobile market?
Iran's government has lifted a two-year ban on iPhone registration to permit legal imports, yet the decision to maintain high tariffs has raised doubts about its motives.
Critics say the current 96 percent tariff, which President Ebrahim Raisi's government imposed in 2022 on all handsets worth 600 Euros or more, can earn Masoud Pezeshkian’s government tens of millions of dollars so the decision to lift the ban was only made to help reduce the budget deficit.
If the government decides not to lower the high tariffs, it will make more money from the sale of every iPhone than Apple which makes the phones, they say. One comment on social media said when you buy an expensive mobile phone, you also buy one for the government.
Inside Iran
What satellite images reveal about Israel's strikes on Iran
Satellite images analysed by BBC Verify show damage to a number of military sites in Iran from Israeli air strikes on Saturday.
They include sites experts say were used for missile production and air defence, including one previously linked to Iran’s nuclear programme.
Satellite imagery following the Israeli strikes shows damage to buildings at what experts say is a major weapons development and production facility at Parchin, about 30km (18.5 miles) east of Tehran.
(BBC)
Regional Politics
Iran’s Supreme Leader Threatens Israel With ‘Crushing Response’ to Strikes
Iran’s supreme leader on Saturday threatened “a crushing response” to Israeli strikes on his country, as the Pentagon said it would deploy additional resources to the region in the coming months.
Tehran initially appeared to play down the damage caused by Israeli strikes inside Iran late last month, raising hopes that it might de-escalate the situation rather than pursue a new cycle of retaliation. But in recent days, Iranian officials have changed their tone.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has the authority as commander in chief to order strikes on Israel. In a statement posted online, he said on Saturday that Israel and the United States would “definitely receive a crushing response” for actions against Iran.
Global Relations
Russia's 'comprehensive' treaty with Iran will include defence, Lavrov says
A treaty that Russia and Iran intend to sign shortly will include closer defence cooperation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday.
Military ties between the two countries are a source of deep concern to the West as Russia wages war in Ukraine while Iran and Israel have exchanged missile and air strikes in the Middle East.
"The treaty on a comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and Iran that is being prepared will become a serious factor in strengthening Russian-Iranian relations," Lavrov told state television.
(Reuters)
Analysis
What’s Next for Israel, Iran and Prospects for a Wider Middle East War?
By: Garrett Nada & Robert Barron
Early Saturday morning in Tehran, Israel carried out what it called a series of “precise and targeted” airstrikes on Iranian military targets. This was the latest in a series of direct exchanges between Israel and Iran in recent months. Israel Defense Forces struck 20 sites, including air defense batteries and radar, factories for missile and drone production, and weapons and aircraft launch sites. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the attack had "severely damaged Iran’s defense capability and its ability to produce missiles.” The Iranian government announced the deaths of four military personnel and one civilian, but otherwise took a more measured response than might be expected.
Over the course of a year, the crisis in the Middle East — which began with Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel and Israel’s subsequent response — spread to Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Yemen and beyond. Israel’s strikes on Saturday on Tehran raises fears of escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.
USIP’s Robert Barron and Garrett Nada discuss Israel’s calculus taking this step, and the Islamic Republic’s considerations in its immediate response and larger strategy.
