Iran Digest Week of November 8- November 15
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
Iran Told U.S. That It’s Not Trying to Kill Trump
Iran sent a message to the Biden administration in October saying that it was not trying to kill Donald J. Trump, as Tehran attempted to ease rising tensions with Washington, according to U.S. officials, as well as an Iranian official and an analyst.
The message, sent to Washington through an intermediary, came after a note from the Biden administration in September that warned that the United States would consider any Iranian attempt on the life of Mr. Trump, then the Republican candidate for president, to be “an act of war.”
Since Mr. Trump won the Nov. 5 election, many Iranian former officials, pundits and media outlets have been publicly advocating for Tehran to try to engage with the president-elect and pursue a more conciliatory approach, despite vows from Mr. Trump’s allies to renew a high-pressure campaign against Iran.
Elon Musk met Iran's UN ambassador in New York
Elon Musk met Iran's ambassador to the UN a day before he was made joint head of Donald Trump's new cost cutting department, the BBC's US partner CBS has confirmed.
The meeting took place at ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani 's residence in New York, with the aim of discussing how to ease tensions between the two nations, according to the New York Times which first reported the story.
It is not clear if President-elect Trump or his national security team were aware of the meeting.
(BBC)
For many Iranians, Trump’s return intensifies worries about war. Yet some see reasons for hope
Iranians, like many around the world, are divided on what Donald Trump’s next presidency will bring: Some foresee an all-out war between Tehran and Washington, particularly as other conflicts rage in the region. Others hold out hope that America’s 47th president might engage in unexpected diplomacy as he did with North Korea.
But nearly all believe something will change in the U.S.-Iran relationship.
“Trump will use tougher levers against Iran,” warned Ahmad Zeidabadi, a political analyst. “Iranian officials will keep rejecting him and that could make him escalate his pressure.”
(AP News)
Women of Iran
Iran announces ‘treatment clinic’ for women who defy strict hijab laws
The Iranian state has said that it plans to open a treatment clinic for women who defy the mandatory hijab laws that require women to cover their heads in public.
The opening of a “hijab removal treatment clinic” was announced by Mehri Talebi Darestani, the head of the Women and Family Department of the Tehran Headquarters for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice. She said the clinic will offer “scientific and psychological treatment for hijab removal”.
Iranian women and human rights groups have expressed outrage at the announcement.
Iranian student arrested in her underwear is latest symbol in fight for rights
A young Iranian woman was recorded this month arguing with security forces while stripped to her underwear at her university in Tehran. The videos, first shared by a citizen journalism account online, showed her arrest by plainclothes authorities — and quickly went viral as yet another symbol of Iranian women standing up to government repression.
The woman’s identity and whereabouts remain unclear, as does a full accounting of the incident that took place at Islamic Azad University on Nov. 2. Iran’s mission to the United Nations declined to comment on the case. In a statement, Amnesty International said the woman was “violently arrested” after removing her clothing in protest of the “abusive enforcement” of Iran’s strict Islamic dress code.
The incident recalled a similar arrest two years ago, when 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died in police custody after she was detained for an alleged dress code violation. Her death set off months of nationwide protests, which were eventually crushed. Since then, the government has cracked down hard on dissent to prevent a repeat of that unrest, enacting even more laws restricting women’s rights.
Inside Iran
Iran’s Dilemma with Energy: Power Shortages, Air Pollution, and Public Frustration
In recent months, Iran’s state-run media has framed President Masoud Pezeshkian’s order to halt mazut (heavy fuel oil) burning in power plants across Arak, Karaj, and Isfahan as a major achievement for the government. Yet this decision comes with a significant downside: cutting back on mazut use, while it may reduce pollution, is likely to trigger power outages as demand rises during the colder months.
Iranian officials argue that limiting mazut use is intended to tackle the severe winter air pollution affecting major cities. Mohammad Jaafar Qaimpanah, Iran’s Executive Vice President, has admitted that the decision will likely lead to reduced electricity production and warned the public to expect scheduled blackouts. “We apologize in advance to the people for these blackouts,” he stated, adding that the Energy Ministry will communicate specific blackout schedules. “We have no choice because we cannot watch people die from air pollution,” Qaimpanah said, justifying the measure.
The statistics behind this decision underscore the gravity of the situation. In December 2023, Mohsen Pirhadi, a parliament official, noted a 90% increase in deaths linked to air pollution over the past year. Citing data on the public health impacts, he explained that air pollution-related deaths in Iranian metropolises nearly doubled from 11,000 in 2020 to over 20,000 in 2021.
Iran prioritizes gas exports despite widespread power outages
Asevere fuel shortage has compelled the Iranian government to shut down three major thermal power plants and impose electricity rationing affecting both residential and industrial consumers.
A government directive mandates daily electricity cuts of at least two to three hours in numerous regions and provinces. President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration has attributed the shutdown of three power plants—in Isfahan, Arak, and Karaj—to an acute natural gas shortage and pollution concerns from burning mazut (fuel oil) as a substitute. However, Ministry of Energy data reveals that the primary cause is a shortage of all fuel types, including mazut, diesel, and natural gas.
Thermal power plants in Iran account for 95% of the country’s electricity generation and require a daily supply of 280 million cubic meters of gas or an equivalent of 225 million liters of mazut and diesel.
(Iran International)
Regional Politics
Iran backs Lebanon in ceasefire talks, seeks end to 'problems'
Iran backs any decision taken by Lebanon in talks to secure a ceasefire with Israel, a senior Iranian official said on Friday, signalling Tehran wants to see an end to a conflict that has dealt heavy blows to its Lebanese ally Hezbollah.
Israel launched airstrikes in the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, flattening buildings for a fourth consecutive day. Israel has stepped up its bombardment of the area this week, an escalation that has coincided with signs of movement in U.S.-led diplomacy towards a ceasefire.
After days of intense attacks on the capital, Israeli bombardment flattened five buildings in Beirut's southern suburbs known as Dahiyeh on Friday, including one near one of Beirut's busiest traffic junctions, Tayouneh.
(Reuters)
Israel 'destroyed nuclear facilities' during Iran strikes: report
Israel hit and destroyed a nuclear facility in Iran during a series of air strikes in October causing widespread damage to sophisticated equipment, according to a new report.
Israeli forces targeted the Taleghan 2 facility near Tehran during the 25 October attacks causing the building located inside the Parchin military complex to collapse, sources told Axios.
Taleghan 2 was part of an alleged Iranian military nuclear programme until it was frozen in 2003, with Tehran claiming that the site has been inactive since then.
Analysis
Before Maximum Pressure, Trump Needs an Iran Strategy
By: Richard Nephew
Maximum pressure is back according to Brian Hook, who served as Iran policy lead during the first Trump administration and is now heading the State Department transition team for the next term. But to what end?
Maximum pressure never actually went away as a legal matter—the Biden administration maintained existing sanctions on Iran and then built them up in some ways, such as issuing new individual sanctions and expanding the scope of President Trump’s Executive Order 13902 to target a broader array of oil-related trade. From that perspective, U.S. sanctions on Iran have never been more comprehensive than they are today.
At the same time, however, a combination of Iranian evasion and lackluster U.S. enforcement have enabled the regime to increase its oil exports and currency reserves over the past few years. The Biden administration has not offered an explanation as to why. Moreover, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen noted in March 2023 that the administration’s approach to sanctions had not changed Tehran’s destabilizing behavior.
