Iran Digest Week of December 6th- December 15th
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
Ex-envoy: Trump’s policy on Iran aimed at a deal, not regime change
Donald Trump’s maximum pressure policy was never aimed at regime change, his last special envoy for Iran told Iran International. It was about making a deal.
Achieving a comprehensive plan to halt Iran’s nuclear and regional ambitions is likely the endgame for Trump’s second presidency, said his former special representative for Iran during the first Trump administration.
Elliott Abrams, a veteran hawk, told the Eye for Iran podcast that most people remember maximum pressure but do not properly comprehend what the goal was.
Assad’s fall: what it means for US strategy toward Iran under Trump
Will Assad's fall lead to the U.S. increasing its pressures and sanctions against Iran? And if so, what advantages does the government fall in Syria offer to the United States?
On December 8, 2024, Syrian armed groups captured Damascus, leading to Assad's departure from the country.
Speaking at the White House, U.S. President Joe Biden said, "The upshot for all this is, for the first time ever, neither Russia nor Iran or Hezbollah could defend this abhorrent regime in Syria. This is a direct result of blows that Ukraine and Israel have delivered upon their own self-defense with the unflagging support of the United States," he said.
(Tehran Times)
Nuclear Program
Iran agrees to tougher oversight at nuclear site, IAEA reports
Iran has accepted tougher monitoring by the UN nuclear agency at its Fordow site after it greatly accelerated uranium enrichment to close to weapons grade there, the watchdog said on Thursday in a report seen by Reuters.
"Iran agreed to the Agency's request to increase the frequency and intensity of the implementation of safeguards measures at FFEP (Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant) and is facilitating the implementation of this strengthened safeguards approach," the International Atomic Energy Agency said in the confidential report to member states.
On Wednesday, Laurence Norman of the Wall Street Journal tweeted that Iran will give more access to monitors from the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) after banning one third of the agency's team last year, citing officials. Measures are being put in place “to ensure Tehran’s increased 60% production doesn’t lead to diverted fissile material or a sudden push to weapons grade” uranium, he said.
Women of Iran
Iran's judiciary opens case against female singer after viral 'imaginary' concert
A captivating video of an Iranian woman singer went viral in Iran, showing her performing in an empty venue for an imaginary audience.
Parastoo Ahmadi, a singer and composer, held the performance in one of Iran's traditional venues while wearing a long black dress and showing her hair -- without wearing a mandatory, conservative outfit. She called the performance "Caravansara Concert" and streamed it live on her YouTube channel Wednesday evening.
Within a day of posting, the video amassed nearly 500,000 views on YouTube and a short teaser video of the concert has been viewed nearly 2 million times on Instagram.
(ABC News)
Iranian women could face death penalty for defying new morality laws
Women in Iran could face the death sentence or up to 15 years in prison if they defy new compulsory morality laws due to come into effect this week.
New laws promoting the “culture of chastity and hijab” passed by the Iranian authorities earlier this month impose severe penalties for those caught “promoting nudity, indecency, unveiling or improper dressing”, including fines of up to £12,500, flogging and prison sentences ranging from five to 15 years for repeat offenders.
Article 37 of the new law also stipulates that those promoting or propagating indecency, unveiling or “bad dressing” to foreign entities, including international media and civil society organisations, could face a decade in prison and up to £12,500 in fines.
Environment
Car Manufacturers, Aging Vehicles, Fuel Quality: What Is the Cause of Air Pollution in Iran
Officials of the Iranian regime state that 60% of the air pollution in Iran, which kills 25,000 people annually, is caused by motorized transportation. Could the main cause of air pollution be the non-implementation of the Clean Air Act, the role of car manufacturers, the failure to scrap aging vehicles, or “petrochemical gasoline”?
According to statistics, since 2016, the capital has had clean air only 15% of the year, with residents breathing polluted air almost six days a week.
The annual death toll attributed to air pollution nationwide is reported to be between 20,000 to 30,000, with 7,000 in Tehran alone.
Inside Iran
Where next for Iran now that its 'Axis of Resistance' is shattered
Amid the shattered glass and trampled flags, posters of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei lie ripped on the floor of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. There are torn pictures too of the former leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah movement, Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli air strike in Beirut in September.
Outside, the ornate turquoise tiles on the embassy's façade are intact, but the defaced giant image of Iran's vastly influential former military Revolutionary Guards commander Qasem Soleimani - killed on the orders of Donald Trump during his first presidency - is a further reminder of the series of blows Iran has faced, culminating on Sunday in the fall of a key ally, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.
So, as the Islamic Republic licks its wounds, and prepares for a new Donald Trump presidency, will it decide on a more hardline approach - or will it renew negotiations with the West? And just how stable is the regime?
(BBC News)
Regional Politics
Iran, Qatar sign comprehensive co-op agreement at joint economic committee
The meeting, co-chaired by Iran's Minister of Energy Abbas Ali-Abadi and Qatar's Minister of Commerce and Industry Sheikh Faisal bin Thani bin Faisal Al Thani, focused on expanding cooperation across multiple sectors, including energy, infrastructure, and trade.
The event featured four specialized committees: Trade (covering commerce, banking, and insurance), Infrastructure (transport, agriculture, and ICT), Social and Cultural (tourism, health, and research), and Energy (water, electricity, oil, and gas). Over 60 representatives from public and private sectors of both countries participated in the discussions.
Ali-Abadi emphasized the strategic importance of the partnership, saying, "Today's economic relations between Iran and Qatar require a strategic outlook." He noted that current trade between the two countries stands at approximately $200 million annually, with plans to increase it fivefold to $1 billion in the near future.
(Tehran Times)
Analysis
After Assad, Time For A New Nationalism in the Middle East
By: Barbara Slavin
The Middle East is rich in history and the remnants of past empires. Greeks, Romans, Persians, Arabs and Turks all sought to control the wealth of their neighbors and spread ideologies of various sorts. Over time, these empires faded, overshadowed first by European colonialism and later by the rise of nationalism among local populations.
The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria is, first and foremost, a significant moment for the Syrian people, who have endured immense suffering since Bashar al-Assad’s administration first responded to peaceful protests with violence in 2011. Beyond Syria, Assad’s fall also signals a setback for the Islamic Republic of Iran’s efforts to establish an “Axis of Resistance” against Israel, the United States, and Sunni Arab monarchies in the Middle East.
Iranians once claimed influence over four Middle Eastern capitals, but with the loss of Damascus and significant setbacks in Lebanon, only Baghdad and Sanaa now remain closely aligned with Iran. This shift could prompt Iraqi and Yemeni Houthi leaders to be more attentive to urgent domestic challenges rather than regional conflicts against the West.
Don’t Assume Iran’s Supply Lines to Hezbollah Are Cut
By: Michael Knights
Although the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime is certainly encouraging, this does not mean its former patron Iran will simply give up on using Syria as a corridor for reconstituting Hezbollah next door in Lebanon. Quite the opposite: Iranian arms smuggling has historically thrived in collapsed or weak state environments.
Consider Yemen, for example. Since the Houthis were placed under a targeted arms embargo in 2015 under UN Security Council Resolution 2216, Iran has built up the group’s arsenal of medium-range ballistic missiles, antishipping missiles, cruise missiles, long-range attack drones, explosive drone boats, surface-to-air missiles, and other advanced capabilities, while also smuggling in heavily subsidized fuel products. These supplies made it through a gauntlet of multinational monitoring, including a UN maritime trade inspection mechanism and maritime interdiction efforts by NATO and Gulf navies. Iran has also smuggled major arms systems (including liquid fuel oxidizers, missiles, drones, and sensors) through Oman, after which they were transported hundreds of miles through portions of Yemen held by anti-Houthi factions.
