Iran Digest Week of January 3rd- January 10th
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
Iran sold 2 billion barrels of oil during Biden’s presidency
Data from oil tanker tracking firms reveal that during Joe Biden's presidency, Iran exported approximately 2 billion barrels of oil—a significant increase compared to the volumes recorded between 2019 and 2021.
Details from Kpler, a commodity intelligence company, reveal that Iran, whose daily oil exports had fallen below 400,000 barrels in January 2021, at the start of the Biden Administration, exported 1.6 million barrels daily last year.
Similarly, the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) organization, which also tracks oil tankers carrying Iranian oil, says “In 2024, Iran exported 587 million barrels of oil, an increase of 10.75% compared to 2023’s 530 million barrels. Over the four years since the start of the Biden Administration, with less than one month remaining in its term, Iran has exported a cumulative total of nearly 1.98 billion barrels of oil.”
Nuclear Program
Iran sold 2 billion barrels of oil during Biden’s presidency
Data from oil tanker tracking firms reveal that during Joe Biden's presidency, Iran exported approximately 2 billion barrels of oil—a significant increase compared to the volumes recorded between 2019 and 2021.
Details from Kpler, a commodity intelligence company, reveal that Iran, whose daily oil exports had fallen below 400,000 barrels in January 2021, at the start of the Biden Administration, exported 1.6 million barrels daily last year.
Similarly, the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) organization, which also tracks oil tankers carrying Iranian oil, says “In 2024, Iran exported 587 million barrels of oil, an increase of 10.75% compared to 2023’s 530 million barrels. Over the four years since the start of the Biden Administration, with less than one month remaining in its term, Iran has exported a cumulative total of nearly 1.98 billion barrels of oil.”
Women of Iran
One woman killed in Iran every other day in 2024, rights groups say
Women in Iran are being killed at alarming rates, with rights groups reporting an average of one woman killed every other day in 2024.
Many of these killings are carried out by male family members, often citing reasons such as so-called family honor, objections to divorce requests or resistance to abusive forced marriages, according to US-based Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI).
CHRI in a statement on Monday warned against the rising toll and attributed this systemic violence to the government’s refusal to enact protective laws or hold perpetrators accountable.
Economy
Iran pushes China to let it sell $1.7 billion worth of stranded oil, sources say
Iran is pushing to recoup 25 million barrels of oil from China that has been stuck for six years in Chinese ports due to sanctions imposed by then-U.S. President Donald Trump, three Iranian and one Chinese source familiar with the matter said.
Trump is returning to power on Jan. 20, and analysts say he is expected to tighten sanctions again on Iranian oil exports to limit Tehran's income, as he did during his first term as president.
China, which says it does not recognise unilateral sanctions, has been buying about 90% of Tehran's oil exports in recent years at discounts that have saved its refiners billions of dollars.
(Reuters)
Inside Iran
Iran launches hotline to discourage abortions
Iran's health ministry has introduced a hotline aimed at dissuading citizens from having abortions as the theocratic system attempts to confront slowing population growth.
"Trained individuals help callers keep their pregnancies and decide against abortion," the head of the ministry's Center for Population Growth, Saber Jabari, said Thursday.
The initiative is part of broader efforts by the government to address declining population growth in the country.
Regional Politics
Iranian foreign minister warns of ‘large-scale war’ if Israel attacks again
Iran’s top diplomat said Tehran is ready for any future Israeli attacks on the country, warning that such action could spark a wider conflagration, in comments aired Saturday.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s remarks to Chinese state-run media come amid rising concern that Iran could move toward pursuing a nuclear weapon as it is increasingly pushed into the corner following a series of devastating blows, coupled with the looming inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump, who maintained a hawkish stance toward Tehran his last time in office.
Speculation has also arisen that Israel may strike Iran in response to recurring ballistic missile attacks launched against Israel by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, which receive arms and other support from the Islamic Republic.
(Times of Israel)
Iran Was ‘Defeated Very Badly’ in Syria, a Top General Admits
Iran’s top-ranking general in Syria has contradicted the official line taken by Iran’s leaders on the sudden downfall of their ally Bashar al-Assad, saying in a remarkably candid speech last week that Iran had suffered a major defeat but would still try to operate in the country.
An audio recording of the speech, given last week by Brig. Gen. Behrouz Esbati at a mosque in Tehran, surfaced publicly on Monday in Iranian media, and was a stark contrast to the remarks of Iran’s president, foreign minister and other top leaders. They have for weeks downplayed the magnitude of Iran’s strategic loss in Syria last month, when rebels swept Mr. al-Assad out of power, and said Iran would respect any political outcome decided by Syria’s people.
“I don’t consider losing Syria something to be proud of,” said General Esbati according to the audio recording of his speech, which Abdi Media, a Geneva-based news site focused on Iran, published on Monday. “We were defeated, and defeated very badly, we took a very big blow and it’s been very difficult.”
Global Politics
Swiss citizen dies in Iran prison after spying arrest
A Swiss national arrested in Iran and accused of spying has died in prison, according to Iranian state media.
The man was being held with another inmate at a prison in the eastern city of Semnan when he "committed suicide" on Thursday, Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency said.
The judiciary-run Mizan News Agency said prison officials immediately took action to save the Swiss citizen's life, but their efforts were unsuccessful.
(BBC News)
An Italian journalist is freed from detention in Iran and returns home
An Italian journalist detained in Iran for three weeks was freed Wednesday and returned home, after her fate had become intertwined with that of an Iranian engineer arrested in Italy and wanted by the United States.
A plane carrying Cecilia Sala, 29, landed at Rome’s Ciampino airport, where Premier Giorgia Meloni was on hand to welcome her alongside Sala’s family members. Sala descended from the plane and ran to embrace her boyfriend, Daniele Raineri, who later posted a photo of a smiling Sala greeting Meloni in the airport on social media.
Sala’s liberation marked a major diplomatic and political victory for Meloni, whose recent visit to President-elect Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago retreat greatly enhanced her stature internationally at a time when Italy was negotiating Sala’s release.
(AP News)
Analysis
Transition 2025: What Will Donald Trump Do About Iran?
By: James M. Lindsay
One of the many complex foreign policy problems that Donald Trump will inherit when he takes office in just over two weeks is Iran. It is on the threshold of becoming a nuclear power, its robust ballistic missile program continues to progress, and it sees the United States as the main obstacle to its domination of the Middle East. How will Trump respond?
That question is easy to answer because Trump has been consistent about his plans: He will return to his first administration’s policy of “maximum pressure.” That effort sought to turn the economic screws on Iran by expanding U.S. sanctions against the Islamic Republic and ratcheting up the enforcement of sanctions already in place. The goal was not regime change but rather forcing Tehran to limit its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and curb support for the regional militias that made up the so-called axis of resistance.
