Iran Digest Week of December 23- December 30
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
U.S. Scrambles to Stop Iran From Providing Drones for Russia
The Biden administration has embarked on a broad effort to halt Iran’s ability to produce and deliver drones to Russia for use in the war in Ukraine, an endeavor that has echoes of its yearslong program to cut off Tehran’s access to nuclear technology.
In interviews in the United States, Europe and the Middle East, a range of intelligence, military and national security officials have described an expanding U.S. program that aims to choke off Iran’s ability to manufacture the drones, make it harder for the Russians to launch the unmanned “kamikaze” aircraft and — if all else fails — to provide the Ukrainians with the defenses necessary to shoot them out of the sky.
The breadth of the effort has become clearer in recent weeks. The administration has accelerated its moves to deprive Iran of the Western-made components needed to manufacture the drones being sold to Russia after it became apparent from examining the wreckage of intercepted drones that they are stuffed with made-in-America technology.
Nuclear Accord
2022: A Year Where Iran Nuclear Talks Turned Sour
In January 2022, world powers were in talks aiming to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The year ends with the powers in dispute at the UN Security Council.
Back in January, there was “no alternative to dialogue,” tweeted German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in Washington. “Political decisions are needed now,” wrote Enrique Mora, the senior European Union official chairing the talks in Vienna aimed at restoring the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).
Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian agreed the talks were at a point where “we have to make a political decision.” Brett McGurk, a leading US security official, saw a “culmination point…pretty soon.”
Women of Iran
Iranian woman competes at chess tournament without hijab
An Iranian chess player has taken part in an international tournament without a hijab, according to media reports, the latest of several Iranian sportswomen to appear at competitions without one since anti-government protests began.
Iran has been swept by demonstrations against the country's clerical leadership since mid-September, when 22-year-old Iranian Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini died in the custody of morality police who detained her for "inappropriate attire".
Iranian news outlets Khabarvarzeshi and Etemad, in reports on Monday, said Sara Khadem had competed at the FIDE World Rapid and Blitz Chess Championships in Almaty, Kazakhstan, without the hijab - a headscarf mandatory under Iran's strict dress codes.
(Reuters)
Economy
Internet Outages Taking Heavy Toll on Iran’s Economy: DOS
Iran launched an extensive shutdown in September in response to protests that drastically limited all digital communication in the country. Its campaigns to slow connectivity and access to popular services, including Meta's Instagram, are continuing.
Dragging out the disruptions, though, is beginning to reveal the true economic toll, according to new assessments by the US Department of State (DOS).
Iran is already a heavily sanctioned nation, yet the government has repeatedly imposed broad digital restrictions and shutdowns, including notable initiatives in 2017 and 2019. The cumulative impact of these crackdowns has affected the rights of more than 85 million people living in Iran and disrupted every aspect of Iranian society, including commerce, WIRED reported.
Iran’s Budget Bill Delayed, As Currency Continues To Fall
While the Islamic Republic’s currency rial is in a freefall, President Ebrahim Raisi’s government has not finalized the country's budget for the next Iranian year starting March 21.
The delay by the government, which should have submitted the budget bill by December 6 according to the regulations, is reminiscent of the administration of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who postponed the budget bill until a few months into the year. This means that government departments and organizations were disoriented for a couple of months before they understood how they had to plan their spending.
According to parliament rules, if the administration misses the December 6 deadline, it must attach an addendum to the budget bill that will earmark the spendings for quarterly portions of the year. This means demanding extra work from an administration that has already failed to perform its ordinary procedural duty.
Inside Iran
Dozens of Iran protesters facing charges punishable by death – rights group
At least 100 Iranians arrested over more than 100 days of nationwide protests face charges punishable by death, Oslo-based group Iran Human Rights (IHR) has said.
Protests have gripped Iran since September after an Iranian-Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, died in custody following her arrest in Tehran for an alleged breach of the country’s strict dress code for women.
Earlier this month, Iran executed two men in connection with the protests, an escalation in the authorities’ crackdown that activists say is meant to instil public fear.
What will 2023 bring for Iran and its protest movement?
The number of street demonstrations in Iran has decreased in recent weeks – but they have not gone away, defying some of the early predictions that they would fade, and yet also failing to shake the foundations of the Islamic republic.
If anything, the protest movement has proven to be resilient. It has now been more than 100 days since the protests erupted across Iran following the death of Mahsa Amini, who was arrested by morality police in September for alleged non-compliance with a mandatory dress code for women.
A high death toll – foreign-based human rights organisations say more than 500 people have been killed during the unrest – has not stopped the ebb and flow of the protest movement. Neither has a tough government crackdown, and the execution of at least two people in cases related to the protests, with the potential for more to come.
Regional Politics
Iran Says Oman ‘Epicenter’ Of Regional Talks
The Iranian foreign minister’s Oman visit reflects continuing regional diplomacy over the Iran nuclear agreement, trade, Yemen, and Arab relations with Israel.
Hossein Amir-Abdollahian met Wednesday in Muscat with the Omani Sultan Haitham bin Tariq, calling Oman the “epicenter” of regional talks. With Yemen, Afghanistan, and Ukraine all on the agenda, the minister said these issues had to be addressed “at a faster pace.”
There is speculation, encouraged by phone calls between Amir-Abdollahian and his Omani counterpart December 22, that Muscat has a role in restoring the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). Muscat’s mediation goes back to facilitating secret Iran-United States contacts before the 2015 deal. European Union spokesman Peter Stano December 26 explained Amir-Abdollahian’s meeting in Jordan December 20 with EU foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell’s as “moving talks about JCPOA revival forward.”
Global Relations
Flight PS752: Calls on Iran to settle dispute over downing of Ukraine jet
A group of four countries led by Canada has requested that Iran submit to arbitration to settle a dispute over its shooting down of a Ukrainian jet.
Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 was hit by two missiles after taking off from Tehran on 8 January 2020. All 176 people on board died.
Three days later, Iran admitted mistakenly shooting down the plane.
The group, made up of Canada, Sweden, Ukraine and the UK, said it was taking "concrete action" against Iran.
(BBC)
Analysis
Iran’s Revolutionary Year
By: Cameron Abadi
2022 will be remembered as a momentous time in Iranian history—just not in the way many observers thought at the start of the year.
This was supposed to be the year that the Iranian regime and the Biden administration finally addressed their stalemate in negotiations over Tehran's disputed nuclear program. A major structural obstacle seemed to have been cleared by last year's presidential election in Iran. Tehran's new administration, led by president Ebrahim Raisi, was unabashedly conservative - but for that same reason, Raisi was believed to be empowered to bring talks with the West to a decisive conclusion. Those hopes, however, have been dashed: by year's end, the nuclear deal remains in a sort of zombie state, caught in limbo between life and death.
