Iran Digest Week of December 10 - December 17
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by Communications Associate Elizabeth Kos. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
Iran and World Powers Try to Bridge Gaps in Ongoing Vienna Talks
Talks are continuing in Vienna to restore Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, but a final agreement still appears elusive as Iran and the West have varying views on the path forward.
After a week-long pause, representatives of Iran, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, France and Germany reconvened in the Austrian capital to resume their seventh round of talks on Thursday.
A breakthrough in the talks does not yet appear in sight as differences remain on two texts Iran proposed last week – one on lifting the sanctions and the other on the steps Iran needs to take to scale back its nuclear programme that has significantly advanced since 2019.
Iran and UN Watchdog Agree on Nuclear Verification Issue as Wider Negotiations Struggle
Iran and the United Nations nuclear watchdog agency announced Wednesday that they have reached an agreement on one of the most serious outstanding verification issues between them, offering a possible breakthrough in negotiations here over Iran’s nuclear program.
In reports confirmed by the International Atomic Energy Agency, government-affiliated Iranian news agencies said that Tehran had “voluntarily” agreed to allow the IAEA to replace monitoring cameras that were damaged by an alleged Israeli sabotage strike last summer at a facility manufacturing components for advanced uranium centrifuges.
Economy
China Ramps Up Iran Oil Purchases After Getting New Quotas
China ramped up its buying of cheap Iranian crude last month after independent refiners were granted additional import quotas for 2021.
The nation imported almost 18 million barrels in November, equivalent to about 600,000 barrels a day, according to market intelligence firm Kpler. That’s up almost 40% from October and the biggest volume since August. Flows may be limited in the coming months, however, in part due to a broader crackdown on independent refiners and reduced demand resulting from virus restrictions.
Iran Draft Budget Eyes Growth, More Oil Sales Despite Sanctions
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi presented an upbeat state budget on Sunday that aims for 8% economic growth and increased crude oil sales of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) despite continued U.S. sanctions.
Iran's top budget official has said the fiscal plan for the next Iranian year which starts on March 21 was drawn up on the assumption that the U.S. sanctions would continue.
"The growth projects include 4.5% in investment growth and 3.5% in productivity growth," Raisi told parliament, presenting the draft budget based on 1.2 million bpd in oil exports projected at a price of $60 per barrel, according to state media.
(Reuters)
Iranian Saffron Dealers are Struggling
Today saffron is mainly used to season and colour dishes such as paella. But the spice, made of the dried stigmas of the saffron crocus (pictured), is still highly valued. In November a kilo of saffron from Iran, which produces over 90% of the world’s supply, cost $1,400, says an importer in Britain.
Yet Iranians in the saffron business are struggling. A recent jump in the price has been driven by increasing demand following the shock of the pandemic—but also by drought and rising shipping and labour costs (it takes many hours of picking and stripping to produce a single kilo). Then there are America’s sanctions, which aim to cut Iran off from the world economy. To get around them, Iranian saffron traders often use non-Iranian middlemen, opaque supply chains and complicated payment procedures.
Inside Iran
Iran Parliament Debates Wage Hike for Teachers Holding Nationwide Strike
The Iranian parliament debated legislation on Tuesday to raise the wages of elementary and secondary school teachers who have gone on a nationwide strike over low pay.
With an economy crippled by U.S. sanctions and now just recovering from the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the Middle East, Iran has faced nearly continuous protests by workers in the past year over inflation exceeding 40%, high unemployment and mismanagement.
Thousands of elementary and secondary school teachers held rallies in several cities on Monday, the third day of the walkout, also demanding the release of colleagues detained by police, according to Iranian news outlets and rights groups.
(Reuters)
Regional Politics
Iran Steps up Deportations of Afghans Trying to Flee Taliban and Poverty
In the 1980s and 1990s, Iran and Pakistan opened their doors to millions of Afghan refugees fleeing Soviet occupation and then civil war and the first Taliban regime. That isn’t the case now. Since Kabul fell to the Taliban on Aug. 15, Pakistan has sealed its borders nearly shut to refugees. Iran has deported hundreds of thousands of Afghans in recent months, unwilling to consider asylum applications.
“People are simply being dumped on the border” by Iranian authorities, a United Nations official said. “The percentage of deportations is rising dramatically since the takeover by the Taliban,” the official said.
Gulf Leaders Convene for Annual Summit Amid Regional Tension
The leaders of Gulf Arab states arrived in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday for their annual summit, a united meeting that comes amid heightened tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and after a yearslong boycott of Qatar.
The leaders are convening as talks to revive Tehran’s tattered 2015 nuclear deal with world powers flounder in Vienna. Since former President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the accord, Iran has stepped up its nuclear program. It’s now enriching uranium up to 60% purity, a technical step from weapons-grade levels, alarming its Gulf neighbors.
At a preparatory meeting early this week, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said the leaders would discuss “sensitive topics of regional security” and how to “present a united Gulf front.”
Canada and Others Say Patience Running Out With Iran Over Downed Plane
Canada, Sweden, Ukraine and Britain on Thursday said they could consider new steps in line with international law against Iran if it failed to respond by Jan. 5 to demands for reparations after the downing of a passenger airliner last year.
Most of the 176 people killed when Iran shot down a Ukrainian jet in January 2020 were citizens from those four countries, which created a coordination group that seeks to hold Tehran to account.
"The Coordination Group's patience is wearing thin," it said in a statement, adding that the group had pressed Tehran to open talks on reparations and to deliver justice but said Iran had shown it was reluctant to respond in a timely manner.
(Reuters)
Analysis
Why Bombing Iran is (Still) a Bad Idea
By: Annelle Sheline and Bruce Riedel
Israeli officials in Washington on Thursday reportedly urged the United States to launch strikes against Iranian targets, in what would be an unprecedented escalation of hostilities. Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Mossad chief David Barnea pushed the Biden administration to engage in military action in order to get Iran to “soften its position at the negotiating table.”
While the talks in Vienna have yielded little progress, this appeal marks just the latest example of the failed paradigm with which both the United States and Israel have approached Iran: the belief that greater pressure and more aggression will force Tehran to capitulate, when the likelier outcome would be to provoke a similarly militant response.
