Iran Digest Week of September 1- September 8
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US- Iran Relations
U.S. Seized Iranian Oil Over Smuggling Incident That Escalated Tensions in Gulf
The United States government has seized nearly one million barrels of Iranian crude oil that it says was being smuggled to China in violation of U.S. sanctions against Iran, after it raised the threat of prosecution to get the tanker brought to American waters, newly unsealed court papers show.
The seizure of the oil from the vessel, the M/T Suez Rajan, is part of a larger and shadowy conflict with Iran. After the tanker began to steam toward the United States last spring, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps seized two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the U.S. military to increase patrols and deploy additional assets to protect shipping lanes.
In July, Iranian state news media said the Guards’ navy commander had warned that Tehran would hold Washington responsible if the tanker’s oil was unloaded, without giving further details. On Wednesday, a high-ranking Israeli defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the seizure raised new fears that Iran could hijack more tankers in an effort to deter the United States from repeating the move.
Nuclear Accord
UN nuclear watchdog report seen by AP says Iran slows its enrichment of near-weapons-grade uranium
Iran has slowed the pace at which it is enriching uranium to nearly weapons-grade levels, according to a report by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog seen by The Associated Press on Monday. That could be a sign Tehran is trying to ease tensions after years of strain between it and the U.S.
The confidential report comes as Iran and the United States are negotiating a prisoner swap and the release of billions of dollars in Iranian assets frozen in South Korea. However, international inspectors also noted new challenges in trying to monitor Iran’s program.
In an effort to ensure Iran could not develop atomic weapons, world powers struck a deal with Tehran in 2015 under which it agreed to limit enrichment of uranium to levels necessary for nuclear power in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. U.N. inspectors were tasked with monitoring the program.
(AP News)
Women of Iran
As Anniversary of Women’s Uprising Nears, Iran Cracks Down
The professor of artificial intelligence was a rising star at Iran’s elite Sharif University of Technology. He gained wider fame for his vocal support of the women-led uprising that rocked Iran last year. At one point, he refused to teach until Sharif students arrested in the government’s crackdown against protesters were released.
But speaking up came with a cost — last week, Ali Sharifi Zarchi lost his job, becoming one of at least 15 academics expelled from Iranian universities in the past few weeks because they supported the uprising.
The purging of academics like Mr. Sharifi Zarchi is part of a wide and intensifying crackdown by the government before the anniversary of the start of the uprising this month. In the past few weeks, Iran has arrested women’s rights activists, students, ethnic minorities, an outspoken cleric, journalists, singers and family members of protesters killed by security agents.
Economy
Iranian Government’s Annual Borrowing Reaches 30% Of GDP
The Iranian government’s debt surged by 61% during the last budgetary cycle, amid a severe economic crisis, as reported by Parliament’s Research Center on Sunday.
The huge jump occurred during the first full year of Ebrahim Raisi’s presidency, dominated by hardliners, who insisted on continuing their anti-Western foreign policy and claiming that economic sanctions imposed on Iran can be defeated. The period spans from March 22, 2022, to March 21, 2023, or the Iranian calendar year 1401.
The annual borrowing total reached nearly $50 billion, representing 30 percent of the yearly GDP. This level of borrowing is unprecedented and indicates an increase in money printing by the government, which is likely to result in further inflation, since the borrowing was entirely from domestic state or quasi-governmental banks. In turn, these banks face huge debts and an unstable financial situation. Therefore, when the government borrows from these institutions, they have to turn to the Central Bank of Iran for liquidity and the central bank has to print more money.
Environment
Iran, Russia, and the Caspian environmental crisis: A need for collaboration
The Caspian Sea, the world’s largest inland body of water, is steadily shrinking. Water levels reached a critical low in 2022 and continue to fall by 6-7 centimeters per year, with some projections suggesting it could drop by as much as 9-18 meters by the end of the century. Although the five littoral states — Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan — have a history of making efforts to maintain it, the unique environment of the Caspian basin has been in decline in recent years.
As the largest natural asset shared by Iran and Russia, the Caspian Sea continues to play a significant role in their relations and is central to the region’s prosperity. The lack of a solid legal framework surrounding the management of the sea among the littoral states, and particularly by Iran and Russia as the most powerful ones, has created a degree of ambivalence about where and how to limit ambitions related to oil, gas, fishing, and other environmentally harmful economic activities. Combined with rising air temperatures and decreased annual precipitation in the region, if the respective impacts of Iranian and Russian industry are not appropriately addressed, the consequences for the Caspian Sea, the horizon of which is peppered with oil and gas rigs and fishing vessels, could be irreversible.
Inside Iran
A year after Iran was shaken by protests, zealots have tightened their grip
Iran's ayatollahs should, by rights, be triumphant. Their bully-boys have muzzled the cries of “woman, life, freedom” that reverberated around the country a year ago after a young Kurdish-Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, died in custody for showing her hair. They have purged universities of critics, silenced disapproving media outlets and rounded up activists along with their family and friends. A new bill going through parliament will revive the morality police (who were disbanded in the wake of the protests) and introduce new punishments for those who violate their dress codes. The regime is cutting deals with friends and foes alike to help it tighten its political and financial grip. Oil exports are back to levels not seen since the Trump administration reimposed sanctions in 2018. And yet, unlike during previous crackdowns, the mullahs still sound nervous. “They know the genie is out of the bottle,” says a teacher in Tehran.
(The Economist)
Regional Politics
Saudi and Iran exchange ambassadors after rapprochement
Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Iran has arrived in the country, and his counterpart has landed in Saudi, cementing a restoration of ties between the Gulf rivals after a seven-year rupture.
Last March, China brokered a rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran, leading to a resumption of full diplomatic relations.
Riyadh and Tehran severed ties in 2016 after Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran were attacked during protests over Riyadh’s execution of Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr.
Global Relations
Johan Floderus: EU confirms official from Sweden detained in Iran
The European Union has confirmed that a Swedish man working for its diplomatic service has been detained in Iran for more than 500 days and vowed to work "relentlessly" to secure his release.
Johan Floderus, a 33-year-old official based in Brussels, was arrested in Tehran in April 2022 while on holiday.
Iran announced three months later that it had arrested a Swedish national on espionage charges but did not name him.
(BBC)
Iran Hails African Countries' Resistance to 'Colonialism'
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Monday lauded African countries for resisting "colonialism" during a visit by Burkina Faso's foreign minister.
Burkina Faso, as well as Mali, are currently ruled by military juntas that severed military ties with France — a former colonial power — and bolstered relations with Russia.
Niger, where a military junta seized power in July, has been the scene of mass protests calling for troops of former colonial ruler France to leave.
(VOA)
Analysis
Iran’s New Patrons
By: Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh
On assuming power in 1979, Iran’s revolutionaries prided themselves on rejecting the global order. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the country’s first supreme leader, declared that his state would be “neither East nor West.” Khomeini viewed the United States as “the Great Satan”—the preeminent, spiritually corrupting imperial power that supported Westernizing despots in the Muslim world. But in his eyes, godless communism and the Soviet Union were just as baleful. “My dear friends, you should know that the danger from communist powers is not less than America,” he said in 1980.
