Iran Digest Week of September 29- October 6
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US- Iran Relations
Ukraine war: US gives 1.1 million rounds of ammunition seized from Iran to Kyiv
The US has sent roughly 1.1 million bullets seized from Iran last year to Ukraine, its military has said.
The US Central Command (Centcom), which oversees operations in the Middle East, says the rounds were confiscated from a ship bound for Yemen in December.
Ukraine's Western allies recently warned that their production lines were struggling to keep up with the rate at which Ukraine was using ammunition.
(BBC)
Women of Iran
With Iranian Girl in Coma, Suspicion Falls on Government
The 16-year-old girl, her short black hair uncovered, entered a subway car in Tehran early Sunday on her way to school, security camera footage broadcast by Iran’s state television showed. Minutes later, she was dragged out unconscious and laid on the train platform.
All week, the girl, Armita Geravand, has been in a coma, guarded by security agents in the intensive care unit of a military hospital in Tehran and evoking broad comparisons with Mahsa Amini, who died last year at 22 in the custody of the morality police after being accused of violating Iran’s hijab rules, which require women to cover their hair.
Exactly what happened to Armita on Sunday is not clear, and the government has not released footage from inside the train that would reveal what made the teenager collapse.
Narges Mohammadi: Iranian woman jailed for rights work wins Nobel Peace prize
Imprisoned Iranian human rights activist Narges Mohammadi has won the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize.
Announcing the decision, the Norwegian Nobel Committee said Ms Mohammadi, 51, was honoured for her fight against the oppression of women in Iran.
Her struggle has come at a "tremendous personal cost", committee chairwoman Berit Reiss-Andersen said.
(BBC)
Economy
OPEC oil output rises for second month on Nigeria, Iran - Reuters survey
OPEC oil output rose for a second straight month in September, a Reuters survey found on Monday, led by increases in Nigeria and Iran despite ongoing cuts by Saudi Arabia and other members of the wider OPEC+ alliance to support the market.
Last month, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 27.73 million barrels per day (bpd), the survey found, up 120,000 bpd from August. Production in August had risen for the first time since February.
The rise in September was led by Nigeria, which has been battling with crude theft and insecurity in its oil-producing region. Iran, which has been boosting supply despite U.S. sanctions, also pumped more, with output hitting the highest level since 2018.
(Reuters)
Rise Of The Working Poor As Iran Wages Fail To Cover Basic Needs
Due to Iran's raging inflation and stagnant economy, the minimum wage has fallen so far behind that tens of million have joined the ranks of “the working poor.”
Etemad, a prominent reformist daily in Iran, published an article on Wednesday, highlighting the alarming growth of poverty affecting workers whose incomes have fallen below the poverty line. The paper reported that workers' wages now only cover approximately 60 percent of their monthly household expenses.
There are different figures for the 'poverty line in Iran'. By one definition, it is a level of income that covers the minimum essential needs of a household, and incomes below the line are referred to as "absolute poverty”. According to Mohammad Bagheri-Banai, a lawmaker and member of the parliament’s economic committee, the poverty line for residents of Tehran, is around 300,000,000 rials (approx. $600) per month, which is three times as much as the minimum wage in Iran.
Inside Iran
Iran’s IRGC successfully puts third imaging satellite into orbit
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has successfully put a third satellite into orbit, according to officials.
Two officials confirmed on Wednesday that the aerospace division of the elite military force has put the third version of the imaging satellite Nour, which means “light” in Persian, into low orbit.
The Noor-3 was reportedly placed in an orbit 450km (280 miles) from the surface of the Earth and, like its predecessors, was taken to space using a Qased – meaning “messenger” – carrier developed by the IRGC.
Concerns Rise Over Growing Afghan Population In Iran
The rising number of Afghans in Iran is causing a divide among officials unsure whether the presence poses a threat or an opportunity for the regime.
In recent weeks, videos of large numbers of Afghans passing Iran’s eastern borders have surfaced, adding to speculation about the authorities’ intent to increase the populations of immigrants from Afghanistan in a bid to boost the shrinking population and bolster regime support via an elaborate incentive scheme.
There are multiple estimates regarding the size of the Afghan diaspora population in Iran, but precise numbers are scarce due to Afghans' reluctance to participate in official counts and registrations, stemming from concerns about potential deportation and other repercussions. Most are economic migrants, hoping to earn money to send back to families in Afghanistan in a collapsing economy, while filling jobs once done by the huge swathes of Iranians fleeing the regime.
Regional Politics
Azerbaijan eyes Iran, Armenia borderlands after 'voluntary' exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh
The convoys snaked for miles along mountain passes as the mass exodus of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, a majority Armenian enclave that is formally part of Azerbaijan, continued to unfold. Western leaders wrung their hands but did nothing to stop it. With the few belongings they could retrieve — mattresses, refrigerators, pots and pans — piled precariously on their battered Soviet-era cars, over 100,000 people, almost triple the population of Lichtenstein, fled the contested region where Armenians dwelled for millennia until Azerbaijan first starved them under a nine-month-long blockade then attacked them on Sept. 19 in what it called an “anti-terror operation.”
The effective ethnic cleansing of an entire population in less than two weeks marked one of the largest civilian displacements in the South Caucasus since the collapse of the Soviet Union and a geopolitical shift of seismic proportions that empowers Turkey, weakens Iran and puts Armenia’s fledgling democracy at risk. For most Armenians, it was — as Armenian political analyst Tigran Grigoryan put it — “the greatest catastrophe to befall our people since the genocide of the Ottoman Armenians in 1915.” Yet the story has already vanished from international headlines.
By Sunday, when Western media and aid organizations were finally allowed into Stepanakert, the region's capital, practically all of Nagorno-Karabakh’s estimated 120,000 Armenians had left. The clutch of the elderly and disabled who remained acknowledged they had not been “forced” to leave by Azerbaijani authorities.
Iran's Khamenei says normalising Israel ties is a losing bet - state media
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that countries seeking to normalise relations with Israel "are betting on a losing horse", state media reported on Tuesday.
Khamenei did not identify the countries, but expectations that Israel might normalize ties with Iran's regional rival Saudi Arabia, the home of Islam's two holiest shrines, have been ratcheted up this month.
"The definite position of the Islamic Republic is that countries that make the gamble of normalisation with Israel will lose. They are betting on a losing horse," Khamenei said.
(Reuters)
Global Relations
Putin Says Moscow Wants To Open Russian Schools In Iran
Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed a strong desire for closer ties with Iran,announcing plans to establish Russian schools to cater to Iranian students.
“We are making every effort to further develop our relations with Iran, and we will continue to do so in the future," Putin stated during an event held on Wednesday night in the resort city of Sochi.
He was addressing the winners and finalists of a competition to select the best teacher in Russia, as reported by Russia's Sputnik news agency.
UN Human Rights Council Slams Iran’s New Hijab Law
More than 40 member states of the UN Human Rights Council have expressed "serious concern" over the approval of Iran's new hijab bill it branded "gender apartheid".
The law imposes harsher penalties, including longer prison sentences and higher fines, on women who do not adhere to the country's strict Islamic dress code for head coverings and modest attire. Late in September, Iran’s Parliament announced that the bill was approved for a "three-year trial run" following coordination by the judiciary.
During a Wednesday meeting at the 54th Session of the Human Rights Council (UNHRC), the majority of the 47-member group endorsed a statement, initiated by Canada, condemning the Islamic Republic’s intensified measures to enforce hijab through the new bill. The statement was delivered by Canada’s Ambassador to the Council, Leslie E. Norton.
Analysis
Dangers of an Anti-Iran Military Alliance
By: Ali Alsayegh
Prior to the brutal Iran-Iraq war, Iraq was an emerging contender for leadership over the Arab world while Iran vied for regional dominance. However, the two states suffered millions of casualties and catastrophic damage to their economies during the eight-year war, which, in turn, benefitted Israel, the other leading regional power. In the war’s aftermath, Iraq—Israel’s main threat—and Iran—which had certainly posed a threat to the Arab Gulf states—were severely weakened. This shift in the regional balance of power enabled Saudi Arabia and Israel to become the region’s strongest military powers and largest economies.
Although, in recent years, the Middle East has witnessed the emergence of a revitalized Iran capable of exercising significant influence over the affairs of states such as Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon. This development essentially represents a return to the dynamic of three strong states in the Middle East. Now, as Israeli efforts to form a military alliance with Saudi Arabia and the UAE to counter Iranian influence intensify, it is critical to evaluate the stances of these states vis-à-vis the question of regional warfare.
It is clear that Israel perceives Iran as its largest threat in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have also been exposed to their fair share of Iranian aggression via Houthi attacks on their oil facilities and tankers. However, whereas Israel is posturing for a more offensive approach to Iran (by, for example, promoting ideas about a “Middle East Air Defense Alliance,” attacking Iranian targets in Syria, and being increasingly open about a military confrontation with Iran), the Gulf states have been engaging in active diplomacy to mend relations with Iran and have denied the existence of any plans for a military alliance with Israel.
