Iran Digest Week of October 27- November 3
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US- Iran Relations
Secret U.S. Military Presence In Yemen Adds A Twist To Houthi Attack On Israel
As the war between Israel and Hamas threatens to draw in Yemen, the United States military’s little noted boots on the ground in the war-torn country raise the specter of deepening American involvement in the conflict.
On Monday, Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels fired ballistic and cruise missiles at Israel. The attack marked the first time ballistic missiles have been launched at Israel since Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein fired Scud missiles at Israel in 1991, according to Bruce Riedel, a former CIA analyst and expert on the region. The use of ballistic missiles represents a major escalation that threatens to ignite a regional war — with American troops stationed nearby.
“The best strategy to avoid getting sucked into another war in the Middle East is to not have troops unnecessarily in the region in the first place — and bring those who are there now home,” said Trita Parsi, the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a Washington think tank that advocates for a restrained foreign policy. “Their presence there is not making America more safe, it’s putting America more at risk of yet another war in the Middle East.”
Women of Iran
Iranian mother jailed for 13 years after denouncing death of son shot at protest
A mother in Iran, whose son was reportedly killed after being shot repeatedly at close range by security forces, has been sentenced to 13 years in prison by an Iranian court after she demanded justice for her child on social media.
Mahsa Yazdani, whose 20-year-old son Mohammad Javad Zahedi was killed at an anti-regime protest in September 2022, was convicted on charges of blasphemy, incitement, insulting the supreme leader, and spreading anti-regime propaganda, according to human rights groups and family members. They say she will serve the first five years with no chance of parole.
Videos and photos of her son’s body riddled with shotgun pellets went viral on social media during the mass protests sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish woman who was arrested by Iran’s “morality police” for not wearing her hijab correctly.
Iran limiting jailed Nobel winner's medical care over hijab refusal: family
Iranian prison authorities have blocked 2023 Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi's hospital transfer for urgently needed care over her refusal to wear the compulsory hijab, her family has said.
Veteran rights activist Mohammadi, 51, who is currently being held in Tehran's Evin prison, was awarded the prize in October "for her fight against the oppression of women in Iran".
Her selection came in the wake of months-long protests across Iran triggered by the September 2022 death in custody of Mahsa Amini, 22, who had been arrested for allegedly flouting the Islamic republic's strict dress rules for women.
Economy
Gap Between Wages And High Inflation Widen In Iran
Iran’s government has proposed a 20 percent pay raise for civil servants next calendar year (starting March 21), despite a rampant inflation of over 46 percent.
Experts say the low increase proposed by the government reflects its need to reduce expenditures and to avoid a higher budget deficit, which is at least 50 percent.
According to a report prepared by the parliament’s research center that was released last week, this year’s budget deficit may amount to $13.5 billion, or 30 percent, but independent analysts believe the deficit is closer to half the budget. In the current year the government has failed to secure half of the revenues expected from oil and gas sales and the same trend is expected to continue in the coming year.
Inside Iran
In Cyberattacks, Iran Shows Signs of Improved Hacking Capabilities
Iranian hackers are waging a sophisticated espionage campaign targeting the country’s rivals across the Middle East and attacking key defense and intelligence agencies, according to a leading Israeli-American cybersecurity company, a sign of how Iran’s quickly improving cyberattacks have become a new, important prong in a shadow war.
Over the past year, the hackers struck at countries including Israel, Saudi Arabia and Jordan in a monthslong campaign linked to Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security, according to a new report by the company, Check Point.
The Iranian hackers appeared to gain access to emails from an array of targets, including government staff members, militaries, telecommunications companies and financial organizations, the report said.
Regional Politics
Yemen's Houthi rebels claim attacks on Israel, drawing their main sponsor Iran closer to Hamas war
Yemen's Houthi rebels for the first time Tuesday claimed missile and drone attacks targeting Israel, drawing their main sponsor Iran closer into the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip and further raising the risks of a regional conflict erupting.
The Houthis had been suspected of an attack earlier this month targeting Israel by sending missiles and drones over the crucial shipping lane of the Red Sea, an assault that saw the U.S. Navy shoot down the projectiles.
This time on Tuesday, however, Israel said its own fighter jets and its new Arrow missile defense system shot down two salvos of incoming fire hours apart as it approached the country's key Red Sea shipping port of Eilat.
(ABC News)
Jordan fears the crossfire if Gaza war pulls Iran into wider conflict
Jordan's request for Patriot air defence systems from Washington reflects its growing concern about being caught in the crossfire if the war in Gaza pulls in Iran and its well-armed regional militias on the kingdom's borders.
Jordan neighbours Syria and Iraq - both states where Iranian proxies operate - and also sits next door to Israel and the Israeli-occupied West Bank. It has watched Israel's war against the Palestinian group Hamas, another Iranian ally, with rising alarm.
King Abdullah has spoken bluntly about his fears that the conflict could cause trigger a new displacement of Palestinians to the kingdom, already home to a large population of Palestinians dispossessed from their land when Israel was created in 1948.
(Reuters)
Global Relations
Iranian Prisons Ignore Declining Health of Jailed Activists
The United States and rights groups complained on Thursday that it was "insulting" to allow Iran's envoy to chair a U.N. human rights council meeting in Geneva, citing violations by Iranian authorities, especially those against women.
A U.N.-appointed rights expert alleges incidents committed by the Islamic Republic during a crackdown on protests since last year may amount to crimes against humanity.
Iran rejects allegations of discrimination against women.
(Reuters)
Analysis
Iran Can’t Afford a Regional War
By: Alex Vatanka
As the Israel-Hamas war rages on, Iran’s role will continue to be a pivotal question. While Tehran no doubt feels vindicated in its model of armed campaign against Israel, it will likely not seek escalation by confronting Israel and the United States militarily. Instead, Iranian officials seem to consider the war as a moment to elevate Tehran’s image in the Islamic world—and in the global south generally.
In this sense, Iran is faced with an opportunity. During the last decade, the Iran-led so-called Axis of Resistance took a major hit in the Islamic world as Tehran rescued the autocratic regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria from a popular uprising. Now, by capitalizing on the Palestinian cause, Tehran is looking to rehabilitate its image among Muslims globally.
What Iran wants now is not a regional war but rather to undercut Israel—and more importantly, the United States—on the diplomatic front. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been blunt in conveying two key messages: that the United States is complicit in Israel’s war against Hamas and that Islamic countries should cut ties with Israel. To this end, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, on visit to Turkey this week, called for a Muslim economic boycott of Israel. If Tehran manages to come out of this latest round of conflict diplomatically stronger, then the regime might even have a better chance at solving its key foreign-policy challenge: namely, a final resolution of the decades-long nuclear standoff with the West and the lifting of the hugely costly sanctions regime put on Iran as a result.
Why Iran Is Gambling on Hamas
By: Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar
Almost from the moment that Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, foreign policy analysts began fretting about Iran. U.S. and Israeli officials have stated there is no evidence directly linking Iran to the attack, and some U.S. intelligence sources have suggested that Iranian leaders were caught off-guard. But there is little doubt that Tehran considers it a major victory that Hamas was able to dupe Israeli intelligence and pull off such a large-scale operation. Iran does not hide its strong support for Hamas, and it has outwardly praised the attack.
With thousands of casualties and no immediate end in sight, the war with Hamas has already become one of the most devastating conflicts in the history of Israel and Palestine. But Israel’s invasion of Gaza and Iran’s backing of Hamas could transform it into something far more catastrophic. As Israeli forces advance through Gaza, the war could escalate to the point where Iran’s “axis of resistance”—Hezbollah and other Tehran-backed militias in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and elsewhere—become direct combatants. Such developments could, in turn, drag the United States into the fighting. Even if they didn’t, an Iranian-Israeli regional war would have far-reaching consequences, including an influx of refugees to Europe from the Middle East, increased extremism across the region, and potentially major disturbances of the international oil market and global economy.
Although Iran has echoed calls by the United Nations and others for a quick end to the Israel-Hamas war, Tehran seems prepared for a protracted fight, even if it carries high human costs. In fact, if past is prelude, the Iranian leadership likely views this war as an opportunity to achieve multiple objectives. Already, Hamas has succeeded in bringing the proxy war between Iran and Israel—typically fought in Lebanon and Syria—to Israeli soil. As Tehran sees it, the conflict could help Hamas permanently deter Israel from attacking Palestinians in the Gaza Strip by teaching Israel that the costs of invading the territory are prohibitively high. The conflict could further unite Tehran and its allied militias into a lethal and highly coordinated fighting machine. It could give the Islamic Republic a new claim to moral leadership among states outside the West and restore Tehran’s credibility in the Arab world. And should the war expand into a regional conflict, it could create a window of opportunity for Iran to finally build a nuclear weapon.
(Read More Here)
