By AIC Senior Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

Though perhaps not out of place in a region that has seen countless kings and empires rise and fall, the political upheavals in the Middle East of the past several months have shocked even some of the most jaded of observers. 

The devastation of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the near-total decapitation of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the whirlwind collapse of the Assad government in Syria have left Iran’s “axis of resistance,” once heralded, even begrudgingly by Iran’s opponents, as a formidable geopolitical force, greatly diminished and facing an uncertain future. 

This Media Guide will revisit Iran’s main allies and proxies in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq and explore how their circumstances have changed over the past two years and what these shifts may mean for Iran’s geopolitical future. 

By AIC Senior Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

The nearly two years since AIC’s Media Guide on Iran-Israel relations have seen the long-simmering conflict between the two Middle East powers escalate to dramatic and unprecedented proportions. 

The trigger for the Middle East’s newest round of violence was the brutal attack on Israel by the Gaza-based Palestinian militant organization Hamas on October 7, 2023. Over 1,100 Israelis were killed in the attacks, with more than 800 having been civilians. Moreover, Hamas took some 250 Israeli hostages. 

In response, Israel declared war on Hamas and launched major military operations in the Gaza Strip with the stated goal of destroying the group. Nearly a year later, the war continues with little sign of abatement. So far, over 30,000 Palestinians are estimated to have been killed. 

The war has had regional implications as well. Hamas is a longtime ally of Iran, which supplies the group with funding and weaponry. Since 10/7, Israel has come under attack by other militant groups allied with Iran including Hezbollah, based in Lebanon and the Houthi movement in Yemen. For its part, there have been calls among Israeli officials for Iranian targets to be attacked directly. 

By AIC Senior Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

The Middle East today is in the midst of a resurgence of violent conflict, with lives being lost at a scale unseen in decades. Worse still, there is little end in sight while further escalation remains a dangerously realistic prospect. All of this represents a tragic departure from the relative calm and promising developments the region has experienced in recent years. 

The current crisis began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas, a Gaza-based Palestinian militant group, launched an attack on Israel, killing an estimated 1,200 Israelis and foreign residents, and taking more than 200 hostages. In response, Israel launched a military campaign in the Gaza Strip against Hamas. At the time of this publication, the number of deaths in Gaza is estimated to exceed 33,000 with over 76,000 wounded. According to Gaza’s Hamas-run Health Ministry, about two-thirds of these were women and children. 

By AIC Senior Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

On June 12, 2023, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi embarked on a five-day tour of three Latin American countries, the first visit of an Iranian leader to the region since 2016. In addition to praising Latin American countries for their commitment to “independence, freedom, and justice,” Raisi signed 35 agreements with his counterparts in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, and signaled an intention to begin a new era of cooperation. 

This visit has helped to reignite discussions about the nature and extent of Iran’s relationships and activities in Latin America. Furthermore, it raises questions about ramifications for the United States, a nemesis of Tehran and a power that has for centuries been wary of foreign influences in the Americas.

This Media Guide will explore some of the key political and economic relationships Iran has built in Latin America over the past two decades, its motives, and how the United States has reacted.

By AIC Research Associate Tristan Gutbezahl

The last year and a half has augured a revolutionary shift in Russian-Iranian relations. Moscow’s illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 isolated it from the West, resulting in an increased reliance on relations with other sanctioned countries like Iran.  Though Russia and Iran had previously collaborated in Syria, the war in Ukraine has transformed the previously informal partnership into a serious strategic alliance. Official Russian foreign policy documents have explicitly called for “full-scale and trustful cooperation” with its erstwhile historical rival. Indeed, since the invasion, Iran has emerged as Russia’s indispensable partner, providing crucial military support while exploring new avenues of economic and political cooperation in the face of stifling Western sanctions. Though the burgeoning Russo-Iranian alliance poses an undeniable challenge to US interests in Eurasia and beyond, significant fault lines still inhibit the two countries from developing a comprehensive alliance, let alone a full-blown defense bloc like NATO. 

This media guide will investigate Iranian military, political, and economic cooperation with Russia while examining the enduring competition and grievances that inhibit the alliance’s potential.

By AIC Senior Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

In a move that made headlines around the world and triggered new debate on the future of the global geopolitical order, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to restore diplomatic relations, broken since 2016. The deal, brokered by China, has underscored Beijing’s growing influence in the Middle East and highlighted China’s apparently deepening relationship with Iran. In 2022, AIC discussed Iran and China’s ‘Comprehensive Strategic Agreement (CSP),’ which was signed the previous year but had only then formally come into force. 

This Media Guide will explore how Sino-Iranian relations have changed in the year since the CSP and what the past year may suggest about the scope and durability of the new Sino-Iranian alliance. 

By AIC Senior Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

In December 2022, Qatar made history as the first Arab and Muslim-majority country to host the FIFA World Cup international football tournament, a milestone which highlighted the tiny Persian Gulf emirate’s meteoric rise to global prominence. 

Though only roughly the size of the U.S. state of Connecticut, Qatar holds the world’s third largest reserves of natural gas, and is tied with the United States as the largest exporter of the fuel, made all the more valuable as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine drives European countries to seek alternatives to Russian gas. Qatar’s resource wealth has put it, per capita, among the top twenty wealthiest countries in the world, topping economic powers such as the United Kingdom, Japan and Germany. 

By AIC Senior Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

As world attention remains fixed on the ongoing war in Ukraine, a lesser-known conflict flared up in the Caucasus on September 12, 2022. Armed clashes broke out between Azerbaijan and Armenia, post-Soviet states with territorial disputes dating back to the late 1980s. The fighting is estimated to have resulted in at least 175 deaths, and comes on the heels of a 6-week war between the two sides in 2020, which killed more than 6,500 people. 

Iran shares a border and a long history with both warring parties and this Media Guide will explore the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, Tehran’s relations with each side and how it has been involved in the conflict over the decades.

By AIC Senior Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

As he campaigns to reclaim the premiership he held for over a decade, Israeli Opposition Leader Benjamin Netanyahu has made his country’s cold war with Iran a key part of the campaign. Netanyahu criticizes the United States for engaging in diplomacy with Iran, and his rival, Prime Minister Yair Lapid, for allegedly not committing to unilateral military action against Iran. Under the current government, Netanyahu said, Iran’s rulers can “sleep well at night.”

The conflict between Iran and Israel may not be longstanding, nor rooted in centuries-old religious schisms as is that between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Nonetheless, it has proved to be yet another driver of bloodshed and instability in an already troubled region, with little sign of abatement.

This Media Guide will explore the conflict between Iran and Israel, its origins, impacts and what it could mean for the future of the Middle East.

By AIC Senior Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched what he terms a “special military operation” against Ukraine, ostensibly to “demilitarise and denazify” the country whose government he alleges is controlled by “far-right nationalists and neo-Nazis.”

Western countries have largely been united and vociferous in their condemnation of the Russian invasion, imposing extensive economic sanctions against Moscow. Some non-Western countries, such as Japan, Taiwan and Singapore have also applied sanctions.

Perhaps predictably however, reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has differed in countries like Iran, which have strained relations with the West. This Media Guide will explore Iran’s responses to the invasion of Ukraine, its pre-war relations with the two main combatants and how the conflict may affect Iran directly.

By AIC Senior Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian marked his first visit to China as Foreign Minister on January 14 2022 with an announcement that a 25-year ‘Comprehensive Strategic Agreement’ (CSP) between Tehran and Beijing, signed in 2021, would now come into effect. On January 16, Iran announced that its government ministers were in talks with their Chinese counterparts to begin drawing up contracts.

The CSP has been met with celebration among Iran’s leadership, controversy among the Iranian public and concern in the West. This Media Guide will explore the Iran/China CSP, what each side hopes to gain from the deal, reactions and possible ramifications for Iran.

By AIC Senior Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

On August 5, 2021, Ebrahim Raisi was formally sworn in as Iran’s eighth President, succeeding two-term moderate leader Hassan Rouhani, putting conservatives in control of all levels of Iranian government for the first time in eight years.

Western analysts have long been concerned that this political earthquake could mean the end for the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA or ‘Iran Nuclear Deal’), a pact between Iran, the United States and five other global powers which relieved some economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for strict limits on Tehran’s uranium enrichment program. The U.S., under former President Donald Trump, a JCPOA opponent, withdrew from the deal and re-imposed economic sanctions in 2018. Iran has since suspended compliance with the JCPOA’s regulations.

By Research Associate Lauren Elmore

Iran is an extremely earthquake-prone country. These natural disasters have caused the country tragic loss of life and hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure damage. Over time, the Iranian government has implemented some mitigation efforts to limit damage, however, these efforts have not been sufficient, and regulations remain unenforced due to economic turbulence.

What causes earthquakes, and how are they classified?

Earth’s outer shell, the crust, is divided into major “plates”, or large, often irregularly shaped segments of the lithosphere. Underneath the crust is the mantle. This is a heated layer of the earth, with temperatures ranging from 1,000 ºC to 3,700 ºC. Because of these high temperatures, the underside of the earth’s crust, or the plates, are warmed, resulting in them becoming malleable and movable. This movement is often referred to as the plate tectonic theory. During movement, the edges of the plates can hit or slide against one another, which is responsible for the creation of many geographical features such as mountains and oceanic trenches. Unfortunately, despite the wondrous geographic landmarks that have emerged across earth due to the shifting of tectonic plates, destruction may follow.

By Research Associate Connor Bulgrin

How can one of the most energy-rich nations in the world be plagued with rolling blackouts? This paradoxical situation has fuelled discontent across Iran during the summer of 2021, and many explanations have been provided to explain the electricity shortage. Indeed, increased consumption, the climate crisis, government corruption, neglect of industry, and American sanctions all contribute to Iran’s electricity crisis. In this Media Guide, we will explain these causes and the unrest they have produced.

By AIC Senior Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

AIC’s 2018 “Myth vs. Fact” on Iran’s Geography challenged the myth that Iran, like many of its neighbors, is primarily a barren, desert land, and explains that the country instead features a very vibrant and ecologically diverse environment. As we noted then, Iran is facing serious environmental degradation, in large part due to global climate change and decades of resource mismanagement. However, there is one factor, almost entirely manmade, which is proving rapidly, obviously and devastatingly consequential for Iran’s environment and society, pollution.

The United Nations defines pollution as the presence of a substance, including heat, in “environmental media,” (the air, water or land) which produces “undesirable environmental effects” due to its “nature, location, or quantity.” Iranian officials have identified air pollution in the country as an issue of particular and pressing concern. Former President Hassan Rouhani even described it as a “monster” akin to terrorism in posing “grave danger” to Iran and the world.

This Media Guide will discuss some key aspects of the problem of air pollution in Iran; the areas most affected, the contributing factors and responses from civil society and the state.

By AIC Research Associate Allyson Socha

What is Joe Biden’s history with Iran?

Throughout his political career, Joe Biden has continuously encouraged improvement of relations between the U.S. and Iran. As a senator, Biden called for renewed relations after the 9/11 terrorist attacks and outlined steps for the U.S. to increase direct communication with Iran. During a 2002 speech to the American Iranian Council, Biden expressed his belief that “an improved relationship with Iran is in the naked self-interest of the United States, and I would presume to suggest Iran’s interest as well.” Although the speech did not produce a drastic turning point in diplomacy, it served as a symbol of Biden’s approach towards the Islamic Republic of Iran in future years.

By Senior Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

19th century French journalist and novelist Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr famously wrote, “plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose (the more things change the more they stay the same).” This may well serve as an apt description of Iran under the administration of President Hassan Rouhani, which comes to an end this month after eight rollercoaster years. Having begun with bold promises of domestic reform and international openness, and featuring a landmark agreement between Iran and world powers, the Rouhani administration ends amidst a deadly global pandemic, renewed tensions between Iran and the West, a battered economy and resurgent hardliners poised to reassume full control of government once President-elect Ebrahim Raisi takes office in August. All while the country’s dismal record on human rights and political freedom remains virtually unchanged.

AIC’s 2018 “Myth vs. Fact” on the Rouhani administration highlighted some of the progressive policies the administration spearheaded and the constitutional limitations on Rouhani’s power to bring about far-reaching reform, arguing that Rouhani’s reputation as a political moderate is not as unfounded as many of his Western critics have charged. More recently however, Rouhani has come under intense criticism from even his former reformist allies at home. Former Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref, a prominent reformist leader, went so far as to apologize “to the people [of Iran]” for having backed Rouhani. Aref blasted the Rouhani administration as one which “doesn’t want or cannot implement” meaningful reforms.

By Senior Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

The term “inflation,” for most, conjures images of Weimar-era Germany or Venezuela, more recently, where the currency has been so devalued that a loaf of bread or a cup of coffee can cost millions. Though not to the same degree as in these cases, nearly all economies around the world experience inflation and keeping it in check requires diligent efforts on the part of national governments.

Iran has struggled with relatively high inflation since the late 1970s, but seemed to have been making substantive progress in curtailing the phenomenon during President Rouhani’s first term. However, the 2018 re-imposition of economic sanctions by the United States followed by the COVID-19 pandemic sent Iran’s economy into a tailspin with inflation soaring to ever-increasing levels. What follows is an overview of Iran’s experience with high inflation over the past three decades and the ways in which its government and population have reacted to it and how they plan to approach the coming uncertain, potentially difficult years.

By Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

The Republic of Yemen, located on the southwestern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is the Middle East’s poorest country and it has been embroiled in a brutal civil war since 2014, one which so far has claimed the lives of some 90,000 people and left 2 million displaced. 

The Yemeni conflict is seen by many Western officials and analysts as a proxy war between Iran, the dominant Shi’a power in the Middle East and its rival Saudi Arabia, the dominant Sunni power. This Media Guide will explore the ongoing civil war in Yemen, and the extent to which Iran has been involved in its origins and current conduct.