By AIC Senior Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

On August 5, 2021, Ebrahim Raisi was formally sworn in as Iran’s eighth President, succeeding two-term moderate leader Hassan Rouhani, putting conservatives in control of all levels of Iranian government for the first time in eight years.

Western analysts have long been concerned that this political earthquake could mean the end for the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA or ‘Iran Nuclear Deal’), a pact between Iran, the United States and five other global powers which relieved some economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for strict limits on Tehran’s uranium enrichment program. The U.S., under former President Donald Trump, a JCPOA opponent, withdrew from the deal and re-imposed economic sanctions in 2018. Iran has since suspended compliance with the JCPOA’s regulations.

By Research Associate Lauren Elmore

Iran is an extremely earthquake-prone country. These natural disasters have caused the country tragic loss of life and hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure damage. Over time, the Iranian government has implemented some mitigation efforts to limit damage, however, these efforts have not been sufficient, and regulations remain unenforced due to economic turbulence.

What causes earthquakes, and how are they classified?

Earth’s outer shell, the crust, is divided into major “plates”, or large, often irregularly shaped segments of the lithosphere. Underneath the crust is the mantle. This is a heated layer of the earth, with temperatures ranging from 1,000 ºC to 3,700 ºC. Because of these high temperatures, the underside of the earth’s crust, or the plates, are warmed, resulting in them becoming malleable and movable. This movement is often referred to as the plate tectonic theory. During movement, the edges of the plates can hit or slide against one another, which is responsible for the creation of many geographical features such as mountains and oceanic trenches. Unfortunately, despite the wondrous geographic landmarks that have emerged across earth due to the shifting of tectonic plates, destruction may follow.

By Research Associate Connor Bulgrin

How can one of the most energy-rich nations in the world be plagued with rolling blackouts? This paradoxical situation has fuelled discontent across Iran during the summer of 2021, and many explanations have been provided to explain the electricity shortage. Indeed, increased consumption, the climate crisis, government corruption, neglect of industry, and American sanctions all contribute to Iran’s electricity crisis. In this Media Guide, we will explain these causes and the unrest they have produced.

By AIC Senior Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

AIC’s 2018 “Myth vs. Fact” on Iran’s Geography challenged the myth that Iran, like many of its neighbors, is primarily a barren, desert land, and explains that the country instead features a very vibrant and ecologically diverse environment. As we noted then, Iran is facing serious environmental degradation, in large part due to global climate change and decades of resource mismanagement. However, there is one factor, almost entirely manmade, which is proving rapidly, obviously and devastatingly consequential for Iran’s environment and society, pollution.

The United Nations defines pollution as the presence of a substance, including heat, in “environmental media,” (the air, water or land) which produces “undesirable environmental effects” due to its “nature, location, or quantity.” Iranian officials have identified air pollution in the country as an issue of particular and pressing concern. Former President Hassan Rouhani even described it as a “monster” akin to terrorism in posing “grave danger” to Iran and the world.

This Media Guide will discuss some key aspects of the problem of air pollution in Iran; the areas most affected, the contributing factors and responses from civil society and the state.

By AIC Research Associate Allyson Socha

What is Joe Biden’s history with Iran?

Throughout his political career, Joe Biden has continuously encouraged improvement of relations between the U.S. and Iran. As a senator, Biden called for renewed relations after the 9/11 terrorist attacks and outlined steps for the U.S. to increase direct communication with Iran. During a 2002 speech to the American Iranian Council, Biden expressed his belief that “an improved relationship with Iran is in the naked self-interest of the United States, and I would presume to suggest Iran’s interest as well.” Although the speech did not produce a drastic turning point in diplomacy, it served as a symbol of Biden’s approach towards the Islamic Republic of Iran in future years.

By Senior Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

19th century French journalist and novelist Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr famously wrote, “plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose (the more things change the more they stay the same).” This may well serve as an apt description of Iran under the administration of President Hassan Rouhani, which comes to an end this month after eight rollercoaster years. Having begun with bold promises of domestic reform and international openness, and featuring a landmark agreement between Iran and world powers, the Rouhani administration ends amidst a deadly global pandemic, renewed tensions between Iran and the West, a battered economy and resurgent hardliners poised to reassume full control of government once President-elect Ebrahim Raisi takes office in August. All while the country’s dismal record on human rights and political freedom remains virtually unchanged.

AIC’s 2018 “Myth vs. Fact” on the Rouhani administration highlighted some of the progressive policies the administration spearheaded and the constitutional limitations on Rouhani’s power to bring about far-reaching reform, arguing that Rouhani’s reputation as a political moderate is not as unfounded as many of his Western critics have charged. More recently however, Rouhani has come under intense criticism from even his former reformist allies at home. Former Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref, a prominent reformist leader, went so far as to apologize “to the people [of Iran]” for having backed Rouhani. Aref blasted the Rouhani administration as one which “doesn’t want or cannot implement” meaningful reforms.

By Senior Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

The term “inflation,” for most, conjures images of Weimar-era Germany or Venezuela, more recently, where the currency has been so devalued that a loaf of bread or a cup of coffee can cost millions. Though not to the same degree as in these cases, nearly all economies around the world experience inflation and keeping it in check requires diligent efforts on the part of national governments.

Iran has struggled with relatively high inflation since the late 1970s, but seemed to have been making substantive progress in curtailing the phenomenon during President Rouhani’s first term. However, the 2018 re-imposition of economic sanctions by the United States followed by the COVID-19 pandemic sent Iran’s economy into a tailspin with inflation soaring to ever-increasing levels. What follows is an overview of Iran’s experience with high inflation over the past three decades and the ways in which its government and population have reacted to it and how they plan to approach the coming uncertain, potentially difficult years.

By Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

The Republic of Yemen, located on the southwestern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is the Middle East’s poorest country and it has been embroiled in a brutal civil war since 2014, one which so far has claimed the lives of some 90,000 people and left 2 million displaced. 

The Yemeni conflict is seen by many Western officials and analysts as a proxy war between Iran, the dominant Shi’a power in the Middle East and its rival Saudi Arabia, the dominant Sunni power. This Media Guide will explore the ongoing civil war in Yemen, and the extent to which Iran has been involved in its origins and current conduct.  

By AIC Research Fellow Andrew Lumsden

On March 7, 2019, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei appointed Ebrahim Raisi,  a conservative cleric and 2017 presidential candidate, as the country’s Chief Justice. Raisi’s selection for this powerful position immediately set off a firestorm of international controversy. Human Rights Watch labeled it “disturbing and frankly frightening,” the U.S. Department of State called it “a disgrace,” and the Center for Human Rights in Iran went further, saying that “Raisi should be prosecuted, not head of Iran’s judiciary.”

This Media Guide will explain who Ebrahim Raisi is, why his appointment as Chief Justice is causing such consternation among human rights activists and what impact he could potentially have on Iran in the coming years.